Which teams will debut as first-timers in Brazil 2014?

If Iran wins Korea, and Uzis wins Qatar, don't they look to the Uzis and Koreas head-to-head records to decide who finishes higher?

 

Bad day if one were rooting for potential FTQs. Venezuela gives the upper hand to Uruguay for the CONMEBOL playoff spot; Panama loses while Honduras wins; and Uzbekistan drops below automatic qualification and may not get back even with a win on the final match day.

 

On the plus side: Two FTQ out of three (Oman, Uzbekistan, Jordan) are guaranteed either a chance in the playoffs or a direct qualification slot.

Also fortunately for Uzbekistan Korea vs Iran is the last day fixture with neither side guaranteed progression. And a Korea win makes Uzbekistan's chances rise. Worst case scenario all they need is to beat Qatar 7:0 or more and they are through regardless

 

Yep got beaten to it again... but June 11 was a disastrous day for FTQs... 5 teams all dropped down either out of direct qualification, or even playoff places altogether...you can say the football empires struck back!

In Concacaf, Panama goes to 2-0 to USA. This result now puts Panama in 5th place and just outside the playoff position. After a super-tight start, things are starting to break out a little at the halfway point, with the US now in the lead and Jamaica trailing by quite some bit and I still think that once they find their goal scoring form, Mexico should qualify leaving Costa Rica, Honduras and Panama to fight for the 3rd and 4th spots... big game coming up next week is Costa Rica vs. Panama in San Jose... should Panama lose that one, then they are going to have a lot of catching up to do. One advantage Panama have is their last two games are against Mexico and the USA at home.. while this may not seem like a huge advantage at first, should either or both these teams qualify early they will probably field B or C sides and may be for the taking, this has happened in the past. Anyhoo, with New Zealand waiting in the playoff place, there's a good change that the 4th placed team does make it to WC 2014, but as it stands Panama occupy 5th.

In Conmebol, Venezuela lost that key qualifier I was talking about earlier 1-0 at home to Uruguay... This means Uruguay leapfrog over Venezuela into that 5th playoff spot and Peru remain in the mix just three points behind. Venezuela however have only 3 games left to play as opposed to the other team's 4 so it's not looking good for them. This is probably not good news for the Asian 5th placed team as Venezuela are probably a more beatable prospect than the class of Cavani or the bite of Suarez.

Talking about Asia, Australia's 4-0 romping over Jordan, means the Socceroos need only a win vs. already eliminated Iraq leaving Jordan and Oman play each other in the last game probably for a playoff place... in the other group Uzbekistan lost 1-0 to South Korea, while Iran leapfrogged over them with a 4-0 thrashing over Lebanon... this means Uzbekistan can still win if they beat Qatar and Iran lose in Seoul. However, should Iran draw, or get a win, then it will go down to goal difference. This means Uzbekistan need to either win by 4 to beat out Iran, and even more than that to beat of S.Korea. Unfortunately, goal scoring has not been Uzbekistan's forte scoring only 6 goals in 7 matches in the final round...

ps - not going well in Africa either with Malawi drawing at home vs. Kenya probably ending their hopes should Nigeria win in Namibia later today..

 

In other words, Uzbekistan has to hope Iran doesn't win in Korea....it's likely to happen.

 

Ubek just needs to find it within themselves to score about 5 goals and hope if Iran wins that they win by 2 or more

 

No matter what happens in Asia, it's going to be tough to beat the #5 team in CONMEBOL, especially if it is Uruguay. But any CONMEBOL team is going to be especially hungry with the WC in their back yard.

BTW, I did look up the African process today, and it appears the next round is a seeded draw. The draw will use the September 2013 FIFA rankings to seed the pots.

And in Africa, there is certainly some good FTQ news at this point. Ehtiopia defeated South Africa 2-1 and has won their group, joining, Ivory Coast and Egypt in the next round. Ivory Coast is the top ranked team in Africa, and will assuredly be one of the seeded 5 teams. While Ethiopia (106 FIFA and 29th in Africa) will certainly be in the unseeded pot, and Egypt will likely be there as well (71 FIFA, 15th Africa).

I'll try to do a group by group wrap later, but a lot of Arican teams will be likely be eliminated today.

 

FWIW, every WC has had at least one FTQ, but last year's WC was only the second time there was only 1 FTQ (though if one wants to count Serbia, there were two).

Here's my list of FTQs through the history of the WC.

1930 Uruguay (13). Everyone debuts, first WC. Uruguay, Argentina, USA, Yugoslavia, Chile, Brazil, Romania, Paraguay, France, Peru, Belgium, Mexico, Bolivia. Many of the Euro powers don't send teams.

1934 Italy (10). 16 Teams. Fist qualification tournament. Italy, Czechoslovakia, Germany, Austria, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, Hungary, Netherlands, Egypt. The South American teams return the favor, as Uruguay declines, and the two that did go (Argentina and Brazil) sent under strength sides.

1938 France (5). 15 Teams. Cuba, Poland, Norway, Dutch East Indies (Indonesia).
1950 Brazil (1). 13 Teams. England.
1954 Switzerland (4). 16 Teams. West Germany, Turkey, Scotland, Korea Republic.
1958 Sweden (3). 16 Teams. Soviet Union, Northern Ireland, Wales.
1962 Chile (2). 16 Teams. Colobmia, Bulgaria.
1966 England (2). 16 Teams. Portugal, Korea DPR.
1970 Brazil (3). 16 Teams. Israel, Morocco, El Salvador.
1974 West Germany (4). 16 Teams. East Germany, Australia, Haiti, Zaire (Congo DR).
1978 Argentina (2). 16 Teams. Tunisia, Iran.
1982 Spain (5). 24 Teams. Algeria, Cameroon, Honduras, Kuwait, New Zealand.
1986 Mexico (3). 24 Teams. Denmark, Iraq, Canada.
1990 Italy (3). 24 Teams. Republic of Ireland, Costa Rica, United Arab Emirates
1994 United States (4). 24 Teams. Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Greece
1998 France (4). 32 Teams. Croatia, Jamaica, South Africa, Japan
2002 Korea/Japan (4). 32 Teams. Senegal, Ecuador, Slovenia, China.
2006 Germany (8). 32 Teams. Ukraine, Ghana, Cote d'Ivorie, Czech Republic, Angola, Trinidad -------& Tobago, Togo, Serbia & Montenegro.
2010 South Africa (2). 32 Teams. Slovakia, Serbia.
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African rundown to this point:

I. FTQs who have won their groups.

A. Ethiopia (Group A). Awaiting the draw which will be seeded and use the September 2013 FIFA rankings. Currently ranked 106th by FIFA (29th among African teams) and will almost assuredly be in the unseeded pot. The other group winners to this point are Cote d'Ivoire (13th FIFA, 1st African) and Egypt (71st FIFA, 15th African). Ivory Coast will be seeded, Egypt likely wont.

II. FTQs who are leading their groups

B. Congo (Group E). On 10 pts with a 1 point lead over Burkina Faso and 3 over Gabon. Congo's last game is at already eliminated Niger. Win and the group is theirs. Gabon visit Burkina Faso in the other game. A draw in that game would send Congo through with a draw, or a 1 goal loss. A Congo loss or draw and a Burkina Faso win would send Congo out. A loss by 2 and a Burkina Faso draw would send it to goals scored, where Congo trail by one. A loss by 3 or more and a with a Burkina Faso draw sends Congo out. A loss and a Gabon win will send it to GD, where Congo leads by 4. Wins/loss total of less than 4 and Congo advance even with a loss, but if the margin is more than 4, then Gabon do. Exactly 4, and it goes to goals scored, where both teams are even.

C. Libya (Group I). Up by 2 points over Cameroon and three over eliminated Congo DR. Simple, a win or a draw and they are in. A loss to Cameroon and they are out and Cameroon in.

III. FTQs who are still within striking distance

D. Zambia (Group D). Have to win at leaders Ghana on the last day to get in.

E. Malawi (Group F). Have to win at leaders Nigeria on the last day.

=======================

IV. FTQs who still have group games going on.
Note: as I type, games are still going on in Group B (Equatorial Guinea), Group H (Mali), and Group J (Uganda, Liberia), so I haven't done the scenarios for those possible FTQs yet.

F. Uganda (Group J). Currently leading. Uganda is wins the group if they beat Senegal away the last match day no matter what happens between Senegal and Liberia today. If Senegal fail to beat Liberia today, then a draw would also do, provided Liberia doesn't win out. A loss in the last game eliminates them, no matter what happens between Senegal/Liberia today.

G. Liberia (Group J). Needs to win against Senegal today and at Sierra Leone, and hope Senegal beat Uganda on the last day (Match at Senegal).

H. Mali (Group H). simply has to win out, vs. Benin today and at Algeria on the last matchday.

I. Equatorial Guinea (Group B). needs to win today against Tunisia and at Sierra Leone on the last day while Tunisia lose to EG today and at home to Cape Verde Islands, all while EQ makes up 6 goals they trail in GD. A 1 goal win by EG would put the teams even on goals scored, two or more would give EG the lead on goals.

 

In Africa notes, it should be noted that

A) Whomever wins Group E (Congo, Burkina Faso, Gabon) would be a FTQ. At a minimum, there will be 2 FTQs in the final phase (Ethiopia + Group E winner).

B) Equatorial Guinea drew with Tunisia in Group B, thus eliminating them and claiming the group for Tunisia, who are probably going to claim a seed in the final round (42 FIFA, 6 Africa).

C) Senegal's win over Liberia eliminates Liberia and simplified Group J. Uganda has to beat Senegal to move on.

 

Temporarily... at least... they are being checked for fielding an ineligible player... and that means game on!

 

So it looks like if the 5th placed Asian team qualifies to the World Cup there will be a debutante.

Still a daunting task since the South American 5th will be heavily favored but you never know.
Also Venezuela can still make it and guarantee a new team that debuts.
Lots can still happen.

 

Uzbekistan win 5-1, which was two goals less than they needed, since South Korea lost to Iran 0-1

 

Yup.
Playoffs up next for them.

Would have been way too interesting if Korea would have had to play a South American team in a playoff. Glad it did not happen.

 

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=2109736/index.html

The African draw will be made on 16 September 2013 in the Confederation of African Football (CAF) headquarters in Cairo. The group winners of the second qualifying round will discover their rivals for one of the continent’s five berths at the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil. The five best-placed sides in the 12 September 2013 edition of the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking will be seeded for the draw.

 

Oh well, another bad day for FTQs.... Zambia are out after a loss to Ghana... the rest of the African first round will be wrapped up tonight. Jordan and Uzbekistan fought out a 1-1 draw in Amman in the battle of the FTQs to win a playoff place vs. Conmebol's 5th place team... that is looking more and more likely to be Uruguay, after they beat Peru, however there is still a chance that Ecuador may get pulled into that position too. The two teams meet in Quito in what will be a likely decider. Venezuela's chances are almost all but gone after losing 3-0 to Chile they are three points behind Uruguay but have one game less to play with only two games left. Panama's chances in Concacaf took a huge blow after they failed to score at home to bottom of the group 10-man Jamaica. They are now a point off Mexico for a playoff place but next travel to Honduras and Mexico, before playing the US in their final game... not looking good for Panama.

And in UEFA Bosnia suffered their first setback losing 1-0 at home to Slovakia. That result leaves Greece tied at the top with an inferior goal difference, however, the Greeks play their last three games all at home. The big game is on Tuesday when Bosnia travel to Slovakia, should they win that, they will be back in command. However anything less than that could hand the initiative back to Greece. Albania lost to Slovenia in their group, while Iceland battled back to a 4-4 draw vs. Switzerland. The two sides meet in Reykavik on Tuesday in what could be a decisive match to see who battles in out with Norway for a playoff spot. It could all be in vain however, as this most likely will be the group where the runner up doesn't get a playoff side due to their poor record. I guess there's a new team now in the picture in UEFA. AFter winning 4-0 in Copenhagen, Armenia pulled off a nother shock in the Czech Rep by winning 2-1 in Prague. Itlay should qualify directly, however, Armenia, Czech, Denmark and Bulgaria are all seperated by a point in 2nd and will fight it out for 2nd. Again, this may be the group that doesn't even get a playoff spot given everyone's tendancy to beat each other. Montenegro's ambitions took another blow after they drew in Poland, while Uraine and England all posted big victories. There's only one point seperating the three, but Montenegro only have two matches left (one less than Eng + Ukr) and one of those is away at Wembley...

sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but hopefully the African FTQs can do better...

 

Venezuela's chances look like they are going down the proverbial toilet. Especially since they do not play the final match day.

 

The African Second Round (the first round featured two leg series that ended November 16, 2011) won't be wrapped up until Tuesday. The two games on Tuesday are irrelevant, but the last relevant game will be tomorrow, not tonight.

 

Well now we will be unexpectedly watching Cape Verde to see if they qualify for the first time after they advanced to the final round of African qualifying.

 

If the current FIFA rankings are anything to go by (though the African playoff draw will be determined by the FIFA rankings that are released on September 12th), Cape Verde has a good chance of being seeded, and if they draw either Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, or (if they win tomorrow) Libya, we will have a nation making their World Cup debut after having no debutants in 2010 (Slovakia made their debut, but FIFA considers their appearances as part of the former Czechoslovakia as qualifications as well)