Will there be lasagna? The Other Teams Thread [R]

Discussion in 'Arsenal' started by ArsenalTexan3, Mar 20, 2013.

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  1. lamb

    lamb Member+

    Sep 3, 2004
    Larne, N.Ireland
    certainly looks like it.
     
  2. DaPrince84

    DaPrince84 Member+

    Aug 22, 2001
    MD
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Fergie said Rooney told him he want to leave but the club turned it down.

    He gone.
     
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  3. R9Kevinr9

    R9Kevinr9 Member+

    Feb 2, 2007
    ATX
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    El Salvador
    Lol at United.
     
  4. stoppre16

    stoppre16 Member

    Apr 19, 2007
    This type of data is tricky to deal with in that it is variable in time and there are a number of potential significant confounding relationships, but a simple analysis definitely points in the direction of significant bias.

    For example, we can compare the average number of points earned per game for games with and without Dean over the last three seasons. If there was no bias we'd expect these two values to be pretty similar. Plugging in the observed results we see a highly significant difference (2.03 without vs 0.533 with).

    Obviously this is not definitive but I believe you've posted links before to sources that did more sophisticated analyses with larger data sets that showed similar conclusions.
     
  5. lamb

    lamb Member+

    Sep 3, 2004
    Larne, N.Ireland
    he hasn't even posted anything to assess definitive with. at least i went through this season's us+dean. there's not a damn thing to see. we plain sucked.
    it was claimed dean's decisions have been assessed by other "pros"....so, if other "pros" have found a noticeable bias, have they reported/complained about this to the FA, the Referee's Association, UEFA, and the UEFA Referee's Committee? why do i suspect this has never happened?
     
  6. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Agree completely.

    This is only headline data, so once you discover this significant difference, you then have to drill down to try and explain it.

    What ought to trouble an Arsenal fan the most is why Dean gets so many Arsenal games.

    He has Arsenal more than any other ref in recent years.

    Given he has the biggest sample size - we would expect him to be reverting to the mean.

    Even Howard Webb has nothing like this kind of data
     
  7. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    As Stoppre16 correctly points out - we went through it in detail with Billy.

    You can't expect me to argue the case all over again given I already know you won't accept any of the data. But search is your friend.
     
  8. darcgun

    darcgun Member+

    Jan 11, 2008
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    lol.. I saw Mancini's sacking coming.

    He bought shitty players last close season. And van Persie's signing more or less made the difference for United. Mancini can blame the board, but maybe they wanted him out all along so stifled him, who knows? lol..
     
  9. lamb

    lamb Member+

    Sep 3, 2004
    Larne, N.Ireland
    this is where you came in. this is NOT conclusive proof of bent refs. it proves absolutely nothing at all. wasn't it only a year or 2 ago he was supposed to be biased for spurs? oh look. your table suggests he isn't!
    i've went through a full 33% of those dean+arsenal matches and NOTHING suggests a bias, and to make matters easier for everyone i didn't pick and choose bits here and there. i took every single match he has reffed us this season. if you want, feel free to do the previous 10 arsenal matches and come back with your examples of obvious bias because there is NOTHING to be seen in the last 5.
    i asked you to show where this bias was. you haven't done so yet. so until you do i am calling BS re: arsenal+dean=negative bias
     
  10. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    That's fine with me.

    Life's too short for these sorts of discussions so we can leave it there.
     
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  11. lamb

    lamb Member+

    Sep 3, 2004
    Larne, N.Ireland
    not too short to accuse but too short to back it up, eh?......pfft
     
  12. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    This is a media talking point rather than accurate IMO.

    When not a single adverse decision is given against you for the season - that is pretty massive advantage.
     
  13. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Or you are just too lazy to refer to the previous discussions.

    Nothing I post will convince you - as you are not seeking to engage in a discussion about it.

    So its best we don't bother - saves your time & mine.
     
  14. lamb

    lamb Member+

    Sep 3, 2004
    Larne, N.Ireland
    it's your responsibility to back up a random post in another thread, not mine.
    you might convince me, but you haven't tried to.
    yes, your post was a complete waste of time. i agree.
     
  15. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    What's interesting to me is to discuss the implications of or explanations for the data - such as stoppre's well thought out response.

    Convincing anyone about anything is not really my bag. :)
     
  16. thebigman

    thebigman Member+

    May 25, 2006
    Birmingham
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    lamb, why do u push people for arguements all the time? u did the same with anti the other week

    it's obvious the decisions tilt toward united, look at their red card/penalty free (before the league was clinched) season and the constant injury time past 5 mins and dodgy pens over the years

    hopefully it changes now gollum is ikn charge
     
  17. cr7torossi

    cr7torossi Member+

    May 10, 2007
    Depends on what you mean by adverse decisions.

    A goal two yards inside the line ruled out, or a clear goal ruled out for offside at your main rivals aren't adverse decisions?

    As we discussed before, if you take every decision in every game into account as the debatable decisions website claim to do, then Arsenal are actually having the biggest positive "tilt" this season.
     
  18. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    True - I haven't looked at those - although I believe Utd have also benefited in that department ;)

    I agree Arsenal are getting a late season tilt - just like last year.

    My guess is that its a broadcaster tilt - otherwise there would have been not much reason to tune in to the run in at all. I have absolutely no evidence basis for that however.

    If you want to make a bet - I would wager Utd won't have nearly so much tilt next season.

    I think fergus spent a lot of his political capital on this one - given he was supposed to get out a year ago.

    I've never looked too closely at them as I think they have a flawed methodology in that they don't review every decision in the game - only the ones shown on MOTD?

    But maybe they have improved it since they started out....
     
  19. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Have they stopped updating that site?
     
  20. thebigman

    thebigman Member+

    May 25, 2006
    Birmingham
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    psg completed their 300 million pound purchase of league 1 today...
     
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  21. cr7torossi

    cr7torossi Member+

    May 10, 2007
    They seem to have disappeared completely from the inter webs a month ago. Strange.
     
  22. nicephoras

    nicephoras A very stable genius

    Fucklechester Rangers
    Jul 22, 2001
    Eastern Seaboard of Yo! Semite
    Pffft, we've been screwed by the refs more than anyone this season. There's no conspiracy - refs are just shit and have some minor biases; but all humans do. As for United - the better you are, the more you generally get decisions, and nothing in their games this season has been particularly egregious that I recall, other than perhaps that awful, awful second yellow on Torres for diving (the one that Jonny Evans thought was justified :p).
     
  23. Tonerl

    Tonerl Member+

    Arsenal
    May 10, 2006
    Cincinnati, OH
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You don't understand statistics or bias.
     
  24. The Potter

    The Potter Member+

    Aug 26, 2004
    England
    Club:
    Stoke City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Nice, is arguing against the dodgy correlation-causation argument and yet he's the one who doesn't understand statistics?
     
  25. Arsenalkid700

    Arsenalkid700 Member

    Aug 9, 2011
    New York City
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Welcome to BigSoccer. :)
     

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