Nations League A, Camp 2, Canada/Cuba, Nov. 15/19

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Dander, Oct 16, 2019.

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  1. yurch10

    yurch10 Member+

    Feb 13, 2004
    One of my more recent favorites is "Well, these guys are playing for U23s, and the Olympics are more important!"

    Ummm, get Ledezma, CCV, Robinson, and Richards on the senior team (probably others, too). I don't care if they are only training with the first teams. So was McKennie when I called for him during last Hex.
     
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  2. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes, bless their hearts
    Estonia
    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #602 Guinho, Nov 8, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2019
    this got me thinking, when did we have a worse coach? Clearly not Arena, Bradley or Klinsmann. Sarachan? Not really. Samson? Bora? Who was before Bora? Gansler. So, since at least 1990?
     
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  3. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    First, thanks for the great post.

    Yes, USSF moves way too damn slowly. You want to do it right, but everything they do is too slow.

    And Berhalter has been too slow to call in Sargent and Morales, in particular.

    I agree... except for Bradley. Bradley's not good enough for the World Cup, and he should not be starting. I don't think he should have been called back in and I am dead certain he won't be passable at the World Cup.

    That said, I still think we should have qualified with him and should be beating Canada with him. He was one of our better players against Canada.

    But we're likely not going to agree on him, so let's move on.

    So, I understand what you are saying, but I don't entirely agree. There's two differences I think we have:

    1. I don't see Bradley as the same level of problem, and Baird is not a roster regular. With those two differences, that's about 1/5th of your outfield roster, not 1/3rd.

    Not great still, but then also:

    2. Berhalter has been slow, but he has brought in guys who have taken the spot of each of those players. It has been TOO slow, totally agree, but:
    • Sargent has overtaken Zardes
    • Yeuill has seemingly overtaken Trapp
    • Dest has overtaken Lovitz
    • Baird has one call up since Boyd was brought in
    • Morales may be taking Roldan's spot (we'll see)
    I mean, that looks like a systematic identification of players to replace players who aren't good enough.

    I completely agree that a) it's been too slow and b) for some of these positions, being second or third string is still too high.

    I'd like to see Toye, Sabbi and a few others come in to replace Zardes completely.

    I'd like to Antonee Robinson get another shot at left back, as well as a few other people. I do not get Lovitz at all.

    I think Pomykal and Morales push Roldan off the roster so I am not as worried about that (also, Roldan has been good at times ... just not last break).

    I don't worry about Baird. He hasn't played since March and when Weah is healthy or Llanez breaks through or a number of guys called in the U23. He's not a worry for me.

    Aside from Adams and players already on the roster, I have no idea who I'd even try for Trapp. I don't even like Yeuill, but I don't see anyone I even really care to try here.

    I guess where I'm different is this: I would like to see more guys called in. But I'm also seeing a too slow, but still there process that have supplanted all the guys you are talking about to some extent.

    Bradley's starting until Tyler comes back. We have to live with that.

    I am hopeful either Morales starts at the 8, or McKennie plays there and Lleget starts at the 10.

    I have no idea if that will be enough. Morales has some fight, but he's not the defender people make him out to be. Then again, Roldan was a literal disaster.

    I really hate Berhalter's defensive choices, so that's #1 where I am looking. If we do the same bend but don't break ... I despair of him or Earnie ever really getting it.

    On offense, our cohesion seems to be going the wrong way. We have enough talent to create chances, but no one could connect a basic pass last time versus Canada. It looked like the team was hung over.

    Despite the fact that I dare to give Berhalter compliments for certain things or defend some of his choices, if the team looks like last time... you have to pull the trigger. We have less than a year to qualifying.

    I do not think Earnie will. I don't think he will abandon the experiment even into qualifying. Berhalter was a pragmatist at Columbus and he's not now. Earnie has never seemed to be one.

    Perhaps the corporate sponsors will revolt if this continues.
     
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  4. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    the part you're struggling with is "averages." long he wins half his games (7).
    has fewer GA (12) than caps (14). in other words his GAA is <1. he has almost half his games as shutouts (6/14 ~ 42%).

    to see it visually, here is his GA
    11000300011312

    so you have a couple 3s in there (2/14 ~ 14%), a 2 (1/14 ~7%), but mostly 1s and 0s (~79%). it is a 1 in 5 chance the other team scores 2. it is a 4 in 5 chance they get one or fewer. it is almost 1 in 2 we get a shutout. ISN'T THAT THE IDEA???????

    you're like, ummm, but those 2 games. do you not see from the average and the scorelines those are anomalies? they are bugs, not the software.

    y'all love brooks. his first night out was the infamous 4-3 bosnia game. note: for that to happen we have to ship 3 goals.

    here is his GA visually
    312110123131011211100200200140240102430

    in his 37 games we have allowed 51 goals. ~1.5 GAA. half a goal more per game than long. he has 12 shutouts ~ 33%. 9% chance lower than long.

    in games where brooks has played, we have 3 times allowed 4 goals (~8%), 4 times allowed 3 goals (~11%). in roughly one game in 5 he plays we will allow 3 or more goals (7/37). in 7 more games we allowed 2 goals. (~20%) in nearly 2/5 of this games (14/37 ~ 40%), we will allow at least two goals. that is nearly double how often that happens for long.

    so do YOU WANT TO GO THROUGH AND EXPLAIN THOSE 14 F*CKUPS? since you put me on the spot.

    brooks then, no surprise, wins less than half his games (17/37).

    no, your lame argument here is to try and tear down the competition with their off night, when your guy has that same off night twice as often. what i instead do is look at averages that tell me how often i should be concerned. you may not like how often long has a bad night. i don't necessarily like it either. but this is what is available, and YOUR GUY HAS THAT BAD NIGHT TWICE AS OFTEN!!!!

    no, this is about relative merit. this is about triage. there is no ideal candidate. so we make reasoned distinctions among the available candidates. from them, he has more good games and fewer bad games than his competition. he has a lower average GAA than them. i may wish Richards hurried up and pushed them all aside. but that is not currrently reality. among current reality, numbers are what they are, show what they show. you want better than long, help me find someone new. but it sure as heck isn't brooks. that's just funny. that's anti-MLS snobbery.
     
  5. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    You do know it's possible to like one action by a person and dislike another?

    Approval of bringing in Morales doesn't mean you have to approve of everything he does.

    It's like politics -- if you blanket hate or love something someone does, you're not critical thinking.
     
  6. NietzscheIsDead

    NietzscheIsDead Member+

    NO WAR
    United States
    May 31, 2019
    NO WAR
    You know, it is apropos to consider the inconsistent player availability that the USMNT has suffered through over the past couple of years. There have been many absences for injury.

    Altidore, Brooks, Adams, Weah, McKennie, Yedlin, etc...the core of the team has not been fielded yet for a single game, much less an extended period of time. The core includes Pulisic, McKennie, Adams, Brooks, Yedlin, and Altidore.
     
  7. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    you insist on treating every game as the same whether they’re friendlies or vs. minnows. They’re not.
     
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  8. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    to be clear, it's not that brooks gets the big games long doesn't. it's that long goes through GC and we allow 2 total goals with 1 loss, brooks has his own GC and we have no shutouts his nights and ship 5 goals with 2 losses. we play freaking Puerto Rico with him and can't get a shutout.
     
  9. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    1. LOL at the being paid. The anti-everything crowd has some very special conspiracy theories.

    2. I criticize plenty.

    I hate Berhalter's defensive tactics.
    I think he's done a poor job of installing the offense.
    I think he took too long to call in Sargent and Morales.
    USSF is a toxic cluster******** that isn't a pro organization.
    Earnie is hell bent on a possession system and probably won't change.
    The organization is way too focused on a European style and arrogant
    It's neglected Latinos and African Americans
    They've taken way too long to hire basically everyone.

    I could go on and on.

    I find anyone who blanket criticizes or blanket defends simply isn't thinking for themselves. Many of you can't admit that USSF or MLS or Berhalter do anything good. Everything needs to be bad and everything needs to be the worst high drama.

    It's become like politics. You've picked a side and you will defend it. I've mentioned above a number of very large criticisms of people I think you'd all say I defend. I've even said I'd fire Berhalter if he doesn't win the Canada game convincingly (and even still, if he didn't plan some changes).

    Can all the people who rant over Corey Baird being called into camp say the same in terms of fairly judging things? We successfully recruited Sergino Dest and there were like three positive posts. But Corey Baird isn't even going to play and there's a freaking meltdown.
     
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  10. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    #610 juvechelsea, Nov 8, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2019
    see my comment above, your argument is malarkey, you could send brooks through a gold cup like long and he would give up twice as many goals. HE DID. it's science.

    what you are now selling is the patent foolishness that someone who plays the big games and ships goals when he does, is the better player just because he got to start them. it's basically the circular argument that because he started some of those games before, he should again. begs the question. logically shoddy.

    this is my whole thing. y'all assume the conclusion and then trot out the players you decide in your head will perform. who then as almost a rule don't do it. go back to performance. go back to numbers. you want goals for, start the people who had goals for you last year and this year. you want goals allowed down, start the people who pitch shutouts. this used to be uncomplicated before the snobs muddled the exercise by lobbing player resumes down on top of the tape or the stats and saying this paper means more than how they play.

    player resumes are useful for scouting before you are brought in. once you are in, tape and numbers should replace paper ideas. how do you look? do you dominate? and what are the tangible numbers?
     
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  11. btlove

    btlove Member

    United States
    Sep 29, 2017
    Austin Texas
    Of course I know it’s possible. I don’t blanket hate everything he does, nobody here does. The point is he does so much terrible, that it’s kind of pointless.

    I’ll use your politics analogy. If people were in a forum criticizing Kim jong-un I wouldn’t hop in and say “yeah but his taxation policy is actually reasonable, don’t know why all y’all do around here is criticize when he does good stuff too, y’all have been complaining about taxes for months!”

    And even if I did want to mention his tax policy I wouldn’t criticize other users for not taking a few minutes to compliment fearless leader when 90% of what he does is terrible.

    Disclaimer: I am not actually complimenting Kim’s taxation policy.
     
  12. NietzscheIsDead

    NietzscheIsDead Member+

    NO WAR
    United States
    May 31, 2019
    NO WAR
    Can any of the NYCFC folks chime in regarding Keaton Parks? He seems like an ideal fit for the 6 in this system given that his positional discipline and defensive commitment have developed more. He is a nice distributor and can combine well in tight space.

    How are those things coming along?
     
  13. LouisZ

    LouisZ Member+

    Oct 14, 2010
    Southern California-USA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I see you are a new member on these boards or are you, someone, we know that got red-carded and can't wait to get back into creating fights with members?

    To GB credit he did called the top in-form euro players. The question is how many MLSers will he use to crew things up.
     
  14. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    Actually, if you had been complaining about Kim's taxation policy for months, and then he changed it, I would expect you to say, "Hey he did something good! I still hate that we live in a police state and I can't critici..."
     
  15. LouisZ

    LouisZ Member+

    Oct 14, 2010
    Southern California-USA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For whatever reason, he didn't even make the U23 team. Not sure if he still hurt.
     
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  16. NietzscheIsDead

    NietzscheIsDead Member+

    NO WAR
    United States
    May 31, 2019
    NO WAR
    The outrage addiction is a function of the ancient brain...the limbic system. That's fun for yelling matches and fistfights, but I don't see how coming to these websites for that kind of neurotransmitter/homrone rush is any fun after awhile. It's kind of like hitting the crack pipe, I imagine. One day you wake up in a metaphorical dumpster and for a brief moment regret where you are only to cover that regret by the pursuit of the next rock. I really don't see how that's any fun, but I digress.
     
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  17. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    so, you were busy heckling me about your isolated cases, and now having spelled out numbers and averages, and shown who actually has more bad nights, we're back to how brooks is the best in spite of what the numbers say. this is not about me ignoring anything. this is about y'all don't give two cents what the facts are.
     
  18. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    Someone new. I wouldn't hide behind something like that.

    I actually am not particularly eager to pick fights. But I have a pet peeve -- when people make arguments with incorrect information behind them. It extends beyond sports -- the number of people who hold opinions counter to actual facts is the cause of oh, most of the problems in the world.

    And I've just noticed on this board, and in the USMNT fan community period, there's just a bunch of stuff said that people will run with that is factually incorrect or has no basis in fact.

    I mean, there are people on this sub who honestly believe that the USSF is submarining the USMNT to either make Mexico look better or, even better, to make the USWNT look better.

    There's enough problems without making stuff up.
     
  19. btlove

    btlove Member

    United States
    Sep 29, 2017
    Austin Texas
    Pretty much everyone here has positive and negative thoughts about USSF. You are not special.

    Why does everyone that defends this stuff think they have some kind of intellectual high ground? You really think you’re here thinking for yourself and nobody else is? Only you are enlightened enough to see both sides?

    We are trending down. Things are going poorly. You are going to see a lot of criticism. You are not smarter and more impartial then everyone else because you say nice things sometimes. Sorry to burst your bubble.
     
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  20. Winoman

    Winoman Drinkin' Wine Spo-De-O-De!

    Jul 26, 2000
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    "Advancing to the rear."
     
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  21. btlove

    btlove Member

    United States
    Sep 29, 2017
    Austin Texas
    And people have acknowledged Morales being picked. Do you want every poster to make note of it? Will that make you happy?
     
  22. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    I was responding to someone who accused me of either being paid, or such a USMNT fanboy that I won't criticize at any cost.

    So yes, that's why I wrote what I did.

    I've missed a lot of the posts about even small positive actions from many posters. But I get plenty of absurd conspiracy theories and rantings about players who haven't played since March!
     
  23. btlove

    btlove Member

    United States
    Sep 29, 2017
    Austin Texas
    We are on a sinking ship. People here are complaining about the lack of life rafts, the inability of the captain to keep the ship from sinking, the poor planning etc. etc.

    Meanwhile you are complaining that people aren’t acknowledging that the captain found an extra life jacket.
     
  24. juvechelsea

    juvechelsea Member+

    Feb 15, 2006
    all due respect but re berhalter he is so off the charts bad that he is indefensible. you have to basically say that we are on an abstracted mission, that results are subsumed by the mission, and more pointedly that we don't even have to show upward progress on that mission after nearly a year.

    i think arguing that everything is one hand or the other indulges the unscientific nature of this era. that it's all politics and pluses and minuses. this is not klinsi with his resume plus brazil. this is not arena with his resume, 2 world cups, playing 18 games and ultimately losing 2 (but 2 biggies). this is losing to canada. this is looking bad. where is the objective appearance, record, result the proponents are standing behind?

    no, this is like the politics of the day where you could be pretty horrific and the dear old internet will supply you a hardcore of fans who identify with your claimed values, back your story, and think you are authentic and a genius. the job of the day, to me, is to take it back to objective criteria and ask, how is this actually working, is this even slightly acceptable? sorry but without even a hint of evidence this team is improving, it's pure politics that there are even two sides of a debate here. the past 5 games would have gotten any coach here fired for about 30 years. maybe you'd get a pass on that for a missionary project. there is no sign that has built anywhere in 11 months. if anything we look worse.
     
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  25. nobody

    nobody Member+

    Jun 20, 2000
    Anyone obsessed enough with all this to have some figures as to how many players from the MLS January Camp Cupcake have historically factored into the US team? I feel like January camp was where we hoped to unearth a player or three fro MLS who could help the full squad. I can't recall it ever before being the bulk of the squad others had to break into.
     
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