@ThreeApples I'm trying to be helpful by sharing a link to that site. It's a good source for this sort of thing. Also, soon he'll update the hex projections (with I-factor = 25 instead of 15). That FIFA doesn't publish a list of which games are included in the rankings any longer is a pain in the ass for him as well (needs to make small adjustments himself).
It does seem that Canada has a better chance of finishing "best of the rest" and then taking on the number 4 team in the Hex, rather than playing in the Hex, and finishing better than 4th (or even worse, 5th or 6th). But what do we get out of that - another year of playing minnows like Cuba and St. Vincent ... which are getting increasingly hard to fill stadium, and get much interest. Need better competition to improve. Canada needs to be in the Hex.
This isn't even a question: much better to take their chances in the Hex (and possibly claw their way to 3rd and straight to Qatar) then having to go through FIVE playoff rounds to reach the Promised Land.
Away games in Central America are no easy task. I mean even the USMNT struggles in Guatemala City for example, imagine Canada? The Hexagonal is a much better option to qualify than an early playoff elimination versus a CA opponent
I'd prefer to be in the Hex, but Canada hasn't performed well in the Hex. Could easily finish 4th, 5th, or 6th. Canada is 1-1-1 playing in Guatemala. To succeed in the Hex, Canada still has to win away in Latin America - against tougher teams than Guatemala or Cuba!
That Canadian win was in the semi-final round of WCQ for Germany 2006. Guatemala had already clinched qualification to the hexagonal and the game was played with mostly non-starters (not taken seriously). The first match was a 0-2 victory on Canadian soil.
In a Hexagonal of Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Honduras, and Canada, Canada would play the top two Central American teams. Antigua isn't close to one of the top two Central American clubs. They're tied for 27th among Central American clubs in ArsenalMetro's coefficients.
You got it right on! The single point discrepancy for Jamaica is probably just a rounding error. In any event, their status for the Hex is pretty secure.
I guess the one for El Salvador was due to rounding as well. That could very well be a close battle with a Hex spot at stake. The link is to (Dutch) Ed's site (previously Romanian Ed). I'm just sharing it, not mine. A few errors there too, unusual. I've been rounding to two decimal places (a while back I could check FIFA but they don't show the decimals any longer). Yet my numbers were a bit off as well. Rounding to four or more decimal places would do the trick.
New official rankings--I was off by one point for Jamaica and El Salvador. Seems that the pre-window friendlies that I overlooked because I didn't know about them were not recognized by FIFA. As of now I'm only aware of MEX vs. TRI scheduled to play out-of-window on Oct. 2. MEX 1603 (-1) USA 1545 (-3) CRC 1442 (-3) JAM 1435 (+10) HON 1359 (+9) SLV 1327 (-15) -- CAN 1322 (+10) [+1] CUW 1320 (+11) [+1] PAN 1316 (-15) [-2] HAI 1277 (-11) TRI 1226 ATG 1137 (+1)
This is interesting. I never in my mind thought that one day we were gonna be taking these FIFA rankings seriously. At least for now, every game counts.
FIFA doesn't give any decimal places. Using two decimal places would be sufficient. With one decimal place you run the risk of double rounding producing errors such as .45 to .5 to 1 when it should be rounded in one step and round to 0. Even if you're adding and subtracting changes from different games, three decimal places should be safe. I didn't like that even when FIFA gave two decimal places, rankings were based on whole numbers, so teams with 100.49 points and 99.50 points were tied. If MLB has a tie for the batting title when using the normal three decimal places, they will use as many decimal places as necessary, and there can't be a tie for the batting title unless there is an exact tie. In WCQs for 2014, Cuba got a bye to the Semifinals for being in the top six. I don't think fans considered the one of the top six, and they got 1 point and 1 goal from 6 Semifinal games when they ended with a 1-1 draw hosting Panama. It's easy for a team to get their only point(s)* and/or goals in their last qualifier if they're eliminated in a two game aggregate, but it's harder to do that if they're eliminated in a group. * I know points aren't used in aggregates. If you prefer, you can change "point(s)" to "games they didn't lose." Being in the top six then didn't matter as much as it does now.
Cuba is just kind of it's own case, since they can certainly assemble a team that can put together a series of good results in the short term, and then lose the players responsible for those results very quickly.
Up to 6 subs are allowed in friendlies. For example, the USA used 6 subs in the recent friendly against Uruguay, and that counted in the rankings. I don't see any reason this game shouldn't count in the rankings. It's outside the FIFA window, so that means it gets a weighting factor of 5, half the weight of a friendly in the window. I'll post more completely later, but Mexico won 2-0, and I have it as +1 point for Mexico. Not too big a deal.
OK, this means almost nothing, but it happened. 2 October Friendly Mexico(1603) vs. Trinidad & Tobago(1226) 2-0 1-(1/(10^(-377/600) + 1)) = 0.1905 5 * 0.1905 = 0.9525 MEX +1 TRI -1 MEX 1604 (+1) USA 1545 CRC 1442 JAM 1435 HON 1359 SLV 1327 -- CAN 1322 CUW 1320 PAN 1316 HAI 1277 TRI 1225 (-1) ATG 1137
Back in business with the Nations League. 10 October League A Honduras(1359) vs. Trinidad & Tobago (1225) 2-0 1 - (1/(10^(-134/600) + 1)) = 0.3742 25 * 0.3742 = 9.355 HON +9 TRI -9 Haiti(1277) vs. Costa Rica(1442) 1-1 0.5 - (1/(10^(165/600) + 1)) = 0.1532 25 * 0.1532 = 3.83 HAI +4 CRC -4 MEX 1604 (+1) USA 1545 CRC 1438 (-4) JAM 1435 HON 1368 (+9) SLV 1327 -- CAN 1322 CUW 1320 PAN 1316 HAI 1281 (+4) TRI 1216 (-10) ATG 1137 (point change since last official rankings) Honduras continues to take care of business. In three matches it has increased its margin over the line from 19 to 46. Haiti got a late equalizer for a draw, but that's not enough to revive any faint hope. Next: League A USA vs. Cuba Bermuda vs. Mexico League B Antigua & Barbuda vs. Guyana
Three games today, but nobody near the cutoff line. 11 October League A USA(1545) vs. Cuba(940) 7-0 1 - (1/(10^(-505/600) + 1)) = 0.1259 25 * 0.1259 = 3.1475 USA +3 CUB -3 Bermuda(987) vs. Mexico(1604) 1-5 1- (1/(10^(-617/600) + 1)) = 0.0857 25 * 0.0857 = 2.1425 MEX +2 BER -2 League B Antigua & Barbuda(1137) vs. Guyana(960) 2-1 1 - (1/(10^(-177/600) + 1)) = 0.3364 25 * 0.3364 = 8.41 ATG +8 GUY -8 MEX 1606 (+3) USA 1548 (+3) CRC 1438 (-4) JAM 1435 HON 1368 (+9) SLV 1327 -- CAN 1322 CUW 1320 PAN 1316 HAI 1281 (+4) TRI 1216 (-10) ATG 1145 (+8) (point change since last official rankings) Next: League B Montserrat vs. El Salvador Jamaica vs. Aruba
If nothing else, today's contending teams followed Rule #1: Don't lose to CONCACAF minnows. 12 October League B Montserrat(912) vs. El Salvador(1327) 0-2 1 - (1/(10^(-415/600) + 1)) = 0.1690 25 * 0.1690 = 4.225 SLV +4 MSR -4 Jamaica(1435) vs. Aruba(890) 2-0 1 - (1/(10^(-545/600) + 1) = 0.1099 25 * 0.1099 = 2.7475 JAM +3 ARU -3 MEX 1606 (+3) USA 1548 (+3) CRC 1438 (-4) JAM 1438 (+3) HON 1368 (+9) SLV 1331 (+4) -- CAN 1322 CUW 1320 PAN 1316 HAI 1281 (+4) TRI 1216 (-10) ATG 1145 (+8) (point change since last official rankings) For the first time there is a tie in ranking points in my unofficial rankings. A tie for third place doesn't matter, but it does raise the possibility that this whole process could end with a tie for sixth place. I'm sure that FIFA's internal calculations use fractional point totals, so nobody's really tied when you extend the decimal places, but it rounds off to integers in the published rankings and considers teams to be tied when they have the same integer total. It would be a very CONCACAF-esque end to all this if there were a tie in the published point totals, and then they had to tell us "Team X is 'really' the 6th-place team according to the numbers in FIFA's internal computers." Next: League A Costa Rica vs. Curacao Honduras vs. Martinique (will not count)