This is tremendous, I'm so glad you've got the algebra behind it figured out, because I haven't found any ranking calculators anywhere. I never thought about the issue with Martinique, which seems like it could be a potentially devastating blow for Honduras. They've only got a match vs. Chile and two against Trinidad that will count for ranking points. It seems we'll have 3 horses for spots 5 & 6 unless there's a major upset from Canada (U.S.), Curacao (Costa Rica) or Haiti (also Costa Rica). I don't think Trinidad could possibly get there even if they managed to beat Honduras twice.
First of all, my apologies for using incorrect country codes for Curacao and Antigua & Barbuda. They should be CUW and ATG. 6 September League A Martinique vs. Trinidad & Tobago 1-1 (does not count) League B Jamaica(1425) vs. Antigua & Barbuda(1136) 6-0 1 - (1/(10^(-289/600) + 1)) = 0.2480 25 * 0.2480 = 6.2 JAM +6 ATG -6 Friendlies Costa Rica(1445) vs. Uruguay(1637) 1-2 1-(1/(10^(-192/600) + 1)) = 0.3237 10 * 0.3237 = 3.237 URU +3 CRC -3 USA(1548) vs. Mexico(1604) 0-3 1 - (1/(10^(-56/600) + 1)) = 0.4465 10 * 0.4465 = 4.465 MEX +4 USA -4 Updated Rankings MEX 1608 (+4) USA 1544 (-4) CRC 1442 (-3) JAM 1431 (+6) HON 1352 (+2) ELS 1342 -- PAN 1336 (+5) CAN 1312 CUW 1309 HAI 1288 TRI 1226 ATG 1130 (-6) (point change since last official rankings) Next up: 7 September League A Canada(1312) vs. Cuba (950) Curacao(1309) vs. Haiti(1288) League B El Salvador(1342) vs. St. Lucia(975)
I was going to start a thread myself - thanks for beating me to it. I was hoping the that the decision to make these qualifiers would make things a little more up in the air for the Hex; but, I don't think they really do. A couple of hypothetical results: a St Lucia upset of El Salvador is worth 20 points. An El Salvador slip up in League B is probably needed to open this up/make it really interesting. Canada should get 5 pts if they beat Cuba. Curacao & Haiti would seem to be very improbable. However, their tough group could help them if one of them can sweep the other and beat Costa Rica one time. A Curacao win vs Haiti should be worth 11 pts (13pts for Haiti win). Currently, a Curacao win vs Costa Rica would be worth @ 15 pts. So Curacao & Haiti can move up in bigger chunks with each win (@ 10pts) than El Salvador can (< =5 pts), but the starting gap may be too large. The difference between #6 and #7 when it's all done may be just a couple of points, and something that could likely be flipped if the qualifiers were worth 30 pts/each instead of 25.
Another country code to fix, El Salvador should be SLV. Some positional movement today 7 September League A Canada(1312) vs. Cuba (950) 6-0 1 - (1/(10^(-362/600) + 1)) = 0.1995 25 * 0.1995 = 4.9875 CAN +5 CUB -5 Curacao(1309) vs. Haiti(1288) 1-0 1 - (1/(10^(-21/600) + 1)) = 0.4799 25 * 0.4799 = 11.9975 CUW +12 HAI -12 League B El Salvador(1342) vs. St. Lucia(975) 3-0 1 - (1/(10^(-367/600) + 1)) = 0.1965 25 * 0.1965 = 4.9125 SLV +5 LCA -5 MEX 1608 (+4) USA 1544 (-4) CRC 1442 (-3) JAM 1431 (+6) HON 1352 (+2) SLV 1347 (+5) -- PAN 1336 (+5) CUW 1321 (+12) [+1] CAN 1317 (+5) [-1] HAI 1276 (-12) TRI 1226 ATG 1130 (-6) (point change since last official rankings) [position change since last official rankings] 8 September League A Panama (1336) vs. Bermuda(967)
So, are we realistically down to 9 teams (maybe we already were)? Haiti must win vs Curacao, win and then draw vs Costa Rica and get help in other results to have a chance. Probably a lot of help (need Curacao & Costa Rica to split or Draw twice so they win group and El Salvador slip ups).
Other than for Mexico, USA and Costa Rica, it seems almost as if it would be more advantageous to be outside the top 6. A team like Canada, Panama, Haiti, Curacao or Guatemala with a little luck with attrition between the other teams could get through the qualification on a huge winning/unbeaten streak with the huge morale boost that would come with that and get a team like Honduras, Jamaica, or El Salvador coming out of a grueling hex possibly with a tanking morale because they lost automatic qualification on the final day because the gave up a sloppy goal in the 87th minute. I feel this set-up is quite advantageous for the good sides that are outside the Top-6. The big downside for those outside the Top-6 I see is, if in the knockout rounds, if both legs are in the same window, a single injury to a key player can doom a team if they lack an effective back-up.
Some shakeup in the rankings as Bermuda pulls of an upset in Panama City. Panama now needs a big result or two against Mexico to keep itself in contention. 8 September League A Panama (1336) vs. Bermuda(967) 0-2 1-(1/(10^(369/600) +1)) = 0.8047 25 * 0.8047 = 20.1175 BER +20 PAN -20 MEX 1608 (+4) USA 1544 (-4) CRC 1442 (-3) JAM 1431 (+6) HON 1352 (+2) SLV 1347 (+5) -- CUW 1321 (+12) [+2] CAN 1317 (+5) PAN 1316 (-15) [-2] HAI 1276 (-12) TRI 1226 ATG 1130 (-6) (point change since last official rankings) [position change since last official rankings] 9 September League A Trinidad & Tobago vs. Martinique (will not count toward the rankings) League B Antigua & Barbuda(1130) vs. Aruba(909) Guyana(953) vs. Jamaica(1431)
At least this new format at a different type of excitement. El Salvador is self imploding so I expect a lot of changes before we hit the hex. I wonder where Bermuda is in the ranking now?
But, not impossible. A win against Mexico and they are right back in it. Canada can really seize an opportunity now by beating the USA. This certainly made things more interesting. Is El Salvador good enough to get through their group unscathed? The Panama loss seems to make Honduras more comfortable; but, Honduras has fewer chances to gain points - what if T&T can surprise them? Haiti's hopes remain alive with the Panama loss also. Must win vs Curacao & still need a lot of help. 1 El Salvador loss and this will really get interesting. This could really expose the flaw in the new world cup qualifying system if 4 teams are close for the last spot, and teams start scrambling to schedule friendlies vs minnows/scrape any points together that they can.
I'd still rather be in the Hex. Allows for 3-4 "off" games and to still have a chance. If you're not in the Hex, you're going to have to almost go perfect - that's a lot of games without a slip-up (red card?), with several games required against teams of similar levels (7-12 range in region rankings).
9 September League A Trinidad & Tobago vs. Martinique 2-2 does not count League B Antigua & Barbuda(1130) vs. Aruba(909) 2-1 1 - (1/(10^(-221/600) + 1)) = .0.2998 25 * 0.2998 = 7.495 ATG +7 ARU -7 Guyana(953) vs. Jamaica(1431) 0-4 1 - (1/10^(-478/600) + 1)) = 0.1377 25 * 0.1377 = 3.4425 JAM +3 GUY -3 MEX 1608 (+4) USA 1544 (-4) CRC 1442 (-3) JAM 1434 (+9) HON 1352 (+2) SLV 1347 (+5) -- CUW 1321 (+12) [+2] CAN 1317 (+5) PAN 1316 (-15) [-2] HAI 1276 (-12) TRI 1226 ATG 1137 (+1) (point change since last official rankings) [position change since last official rankings] 10 September League A Cuba(945) vs. Canada(1317) Haiti(1276) vs. Curacao(1321) League B Dominican Republic(1028) vs. El Salvador(1347) Friendlies USA(1544) vs. Uruguay(1640) Honduras(1352) vs. Chile(1583) Argentina(1610) vs. Mexico(1608)
I think everyone could agree the day it came out that this WCQ is "flawed". But a major correctable action that can remedy the problem you spoke of is to use the November 2019 rankings rather than June 2020 to determine the top 6. January, March and June friendlies shouldn't determine who goes in to the Hex. Nations League is also a continental qualification tournament so I'm ok with that.
I think the idea was to give the teams a year with knowledge of the format for teams to try to make a change in their rankings. If they just had the three Nations League FIFA windows between the announcement and the final cut-off, the likelihood of the original top 6 staying entrenched would be pretty high, especially with some teams getting non-FIFA opponents by luck of the draw. It's not very easy to use friendlies to make a move in the rankings. To get more than a tiny point total, teams would need to schedule higher-ranked opponents to set up games that could earn 6 or 7 points, and then they would need to actually win the games to get the points. And any friendlies outside of the FIFA windows have a weighting factor of 5, meaning a good win is likely worth only 3 points. March and June also have some meaningful games with qualifying rounds for the last Gold Cup slots, and the final stage of the Nations League. The most obvious way for a team to make a big move upward is to win their CNL group and then get a win or two against MEX/USA/CRC in the final stage. It's a long shot, but I assume they put the cut-off after that in order to leave that opportunity open.
You are absolutely correct that it's hard to scrape together points - unless you play better teams, which would be a huge risk of losing and losing points. However, my point was that 6th and 7th could very well be decided by a point or two the way this is shaping up. And El Salvador just stumbled, opening this thing up. Unfortunately, Haiti could only tie. Nothing against Curacao, but for the pure anarchy/drama of all the matches having meaning, I was hoping Haiti would win and maintain an outside shot of getting back in this too. They'll need a pair of wins against Costa Rica now. If Honduras loses their friendly tonight to Chile, and then loses a game to T&T, 5th-9th could really be tight.
I haven't done the math, but I think it should be @ 20, which probably will leave them barely hanging on to 6th, with about a 5 point lead on Canada, and Curacao and Panama back <=10 pts.
It's becoming clear that the big objective here is "Don't lose to CONCACAF minnows". 10 September League A Cuba(945) vs. Canada(1317) 0-1 1 - (1/(10^(-372/600) + 1)) = 0.1935 25 * 0.1935 = 4.8375 CAN +5 CUB -5 Haiti(1276) vs. Curacao(1321) 1-1 0.5 - (1/(10^(45/600) + 1)) = 0.0431 25 * 0.0431 = 1.0775 HAI +1 CUW -1 League B Dominican Republic(1028) vs. El Salvador(1347) 1-0 1 - (1/(10^(319/600) + 1)) = 0.7728 25 * 0.7728 = 19.32 DOM +19 SLV -19 Friendlies USA(1544) vs. Uruguay(1640) 1-1 0.5 - (1/(10^(96/600) + 1)) = 0.0911 10 * 0.0911 = 0.911 USA +1 URU -1 Honduras(1352) vs. Chile(1583) 2-1 1 - (1/(10^(231/600) + 1)) = 0.7082 10 * 0.7082 = 7.082 HON +7 CHI -7 Argentina(1610) vs. Mexico(1608) 4-0 1 - (1/(10^(-2/600) + 1)) = 0.4981 10 * 0.4981 = 4.981 ARG +5 MEX -5 MEX 1603 (-1) USA 1545 (-3) CRC 1442 (-3) JAM 1434 (+9) HON 1359 (+9) SLV 1328 (-14) -- CAN 1322 (+10) [+1] CUW 1320 (+11) [+1] PAN 1316 (-15) [-2] HAI 1277 (-11) TRI 1226 ATG 1137 (+1) (point change since last official rankings) [position change since last official rankings] That's it for this first window. FIFA is scheduled to release the official rankings next Wednesday, and I'll probably have some small discrepancies to fix. The next international window starts October 10, though I know of one out-of-window friendly, Mexico vs. T&T, scheduled before that. If anybody knows about other out-of-window friendlies, please post, as they are sometimes easy to miss. Some quick takes: - Top 4 don't matter much. - Honduras gets a good friendly win to make its position above the line a bit more comfortable, and is well-poised to win its group after the pair of T&T-Martinique draws. - El Salvador shows the damage of one bad result, and is vulnerable to another one that could really shake things up. - Canada did what it needed to do. Its fate depends on what it can do vs. the USA, plus potential collapses of teams above. - Curacao vs. Haiti was the most interesting matchup of two contending teams. Curacao comes out on top and stays in the thick of things, while Haiti is now desperately needing big upset results. - Panama was hurt big-time by a bad home loss. Still within range but needs results vs. Mexico. - T&T and Antigua, not much they can do.
Things look pretty rock solid for Honduras now, I can't see them not winning at home against Martinique or a struggling T&T, and two home wins will get them to 6 points and be enough to win the group regardless of what they do away. The way things are looking right now for Canada and the US, I'm thinking Canada takes at least a point in Toronto.
A couple of years ago, FIFA switched from Wednesday to Thursday. It would be a big deal if Curacao was in the Hexagonal. Wikipedia has them with an area of 444 square kilometers (171 square miles) and a January 2018 estimated population of 160,012. In the round before the Semifinals both times, Curacao lost the aggregate 2-0 to El Salvador in WCQs for 2018 and 1-0 to Haiti in WCQs for 2010 when Curacao was Netherlands Antilles. In between, they finished third in the first group stage for 2014 that only the winners advanced to the Semifinals. They lost aggregates 6-1 to Honduras in Round 2 (the round before the Semifinals) for 2006 and 6-1 to Trinidad and Tobago in Round 1 for 2002 when the beginning separated UNCAF and CFU. They lost aggregate 2-1 to Dominican Republic in Round 1 for 1998.
All the knockout rounds will have both legs in the same window. The Quarterfinals will be in March 2021, with Semifinals from May 31 to June 8, Final from August 30 to September 7, and playoff against fourth in the Hexagonal in October. Then they will have November off and play the interconfederational playoff in March 2022. Other than during the Group Stage, the worst time to get injured would be shortly before the Semifinals because the Final is one month later and all the other gaps between aggregate rounds are longer than that. In addition to the chance of qualification, I would think teams would like to make money from hosting the top teams in the Hexagonal. Do you think Curacao would rather finish last in the Hexagonal or play with the bottom 29, advance four rounds, and lose to the fourth place Hexagonal team? There could be many people who haven't ever watched Curacao play a WCQ, won't watch them play a WCQ if they play with the bottom 29, but will watch them if they play WCQs against Mexico and USA. On October 12, 2012, Antigua and Barbuda almost got a draw hosting USA before USA won 2-1. Even if Curacao had over a 50 percent chance at losing all six games against Mexico, USA, and Costa Rica, they would have a chance of getting at least 1 point against a top three team at some point.
A few of the points totals are off. Next Thursday you can check against FIFA's official rankings. http://www.football-rankings.info/2019/09/fifa-ranking-september-2019-final.html
I did admit in the first post that I expect a little bit of error due to my rounding off of the points for each game. Just makes it easier for me to track, and I don't mind if I get unofficially askew by a point or two. That site did make me discover that I missed some out-of-window friendlies that occured before the CNL matches, but out of my 12 teams only T&T and A&B were involved, so I'll not worry about it and just fix it up when the official rankings come out.