The basket of deplorables statement worked wonders for Hillary so don’t fix what ain’t broke I guess.
I don't think the other polls are jokes, but I think they captured a temporary announcement bounce. The Emerson poll is closer to where I expect the race to settle on before the debates.
At last I find a poll which matches my preconceived idea! This is pretty much the definition of cherry picking data
There's an Emerson poll released today that is landlines + an online portion. Unsurprisingly when the demographics include fewer 50+ the gap between Biden & Bernie massively shrinks. Biden still leads, but it's single digits. AKA: not an insultingly stupid poll.— Secular Talk🎙 (@KyleKulinski) May 16, 2019 😳😳😳 pic.twitter.com/qeN63O6RvV— Waleed Shahid 🪬 (@_waleedshahid) May 16, 2019
Unskew the polls! Unsurprisingly when we change the assumed population to include fewer likely Biden voters the gap between Biden & Bernie massively shrinks. ZOMG!! Where have we ever seen this logic before I wonder
Totally agree as well. Warren said it well, Fox is a hate propaganda machine. Good article on this topic: Skeptics reply that Fox viewers are a lost cause to Democrats. “In 2016, only 1 percent (!) of Sanders primary voters (and 4 percent of Clinton primary voters) reported Fox as their main source of news,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver tweeted yesterday, of Warren’s decision. “It’s not like you’re forsaking all that large an audience that won’t see your message elsewhere.” Fox’s core audience is Republicans, and those Republicans tend to have hardline, pro-Trump views. The question “should Democrats appear on Fox?” probably doesn’t have a one-size-fits-all answer. If Democrats do choose to appear, we should encourage them to ram home an essential point: that Fox has an abnormal, corrosive relationship to democracy.\ https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/elizabeth_warren_fox_news.php
You do know that old people vote in large percentages, while young people do not right? So any poll worth anything will have a larger representative size of older voters.
It's not cherry picking data, it's making an educated guess based on previous voter behavior. This race has been defined by large bounces in polling in the first couple weeks after an announcement of intent to run before dropping back down to the mean. Every major candidate had it.
National polls mean nothing. So here is a look of Trumps approvals by state. Take a note that he is underwater in important swing states, still early, but hopefully regardless of who wins the primary, they will stay like this. https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...p-is-more-and-less-popular-than-he-should-be/
Biden’s pre-announcement polling had him around the 30s and Sanders in the low/mid 20s. I wouldn't be shocked if future polling returned to within a few points of that polling once abiden’s bump wears off..
Biden's announcement is almost a month old now , I have not seen any wear off so far. As a matter of fact, and it seems that his lead has been growing lately. He is running a pretty smart and safe campaign so far and unless he badly stumbles during the debate, he will be hard to beat.
There haven't been a lot of polls since then and there has only been one repeat, which doesn't really show a change. *shrug* I don't disagree that he'll be hard to beat, but I'd like to see more polls before we draw a conclusion about whether his bump is or isn't wearing off.
By going on Fox, no matter if any Democrat contradicts Hannity or Fox and Friends or anybody else, it is legitimizing the MO of Fox and their persistent lies, racism, and blind support of the current President (and the persistent banging on against the Mueller report and the term "fake news"). It is not one show, it is the entire network.
Regarding the Emerson poll... https://emersonpolling.reportablene...ack-in-the-lead-for-the-democratic-nomination The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,006, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data was weighted based on a 2016 voter model of gender, age, region and ethnicity. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=604) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=402). The poll was an IVR, not an in-person poll. It also did not call cell phones (which is like to lower the number of the U40 crowd). Again, it is a data point, but nothing more.
Fox is simply poisonous (and by extension Rupert M. and his clique ). They are actively undermining democratic norms and societies in general. No point of giving them more legitimacy.
His son seems to want to move FoxNews more to the middle, but I don't think that will truly happen until Papa Murdock dies.
I think that was James, who was shunted over to 21st Century Fox and isn't associated with FoxCorp since the sale of 21st Century. Lachlan is the one running FoxCorp and, from what I understand, he's just as conservative as his father, if not more so.
That's true. But we have to admit that, at least in the US, the right wing media has been much more successful at it.
Bill de Blasio is now running for President and we are way past ridiculous on the number of candidates now. None of these people could've run in 2016? Really?!
I agree it's way too early to know much - i was more objecting to the Cherry pick of the Emerson poll There is a new Fox poll which has Biden +18 IMO the real issue for Bernie is he already has national name recognition, but his polling seems relatively locked in. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/
I’m calling it now. There will not be enough voting capacity in cities, especially in POC areas, and it will be at a level we’ve never seen, and it will be an enormous scandal. Either Trump will win and the Dems will go nuts over it, or he will lose, and he will go insane complaining about judges keeping polls open late. (Blaming election officials for not having enough capacity will not be an option.) 1129162732454993920 is not a valid tweet id
State level elections matter. Florida has a republican governor, republican Congress (I think), so you bet there will be long lines in districts that vote Democrats in large numbers.
I vote c. GOP will do their best to prevent people from voting, even if it means cancelling postponing elections and disregarding any calls for Trump to step down as the results of an invalid election.