Measuring Success - The Arsenal (Emery) Barometer

Dude, are you just not bothered to read up about this subject at all? xPoints models have xG models baked into them--usually, it's just xG differentials simulated over longer periods of time given context of similar xG differentials. So while, yes, they possibly *are* a better model of predicting future results, that isn't proving the argument you're making. It's still basing a future prediction of results on xG performance data, not on results data.

You seem incurious about this but I'll add an article explaining xPoints for anyone else who might be interested: https://theshortfuse.sbnation.com/2017/11/15/16655916/how-to-calculate-xpoints-analysis-stats-xg

Again, like, I think this comes down to you not really knowing what xG or other stats measure, as many other people have already said to you. Also the fact that finishing rates between strikers don't vary that much given the same positions of the finish.

Again, completely obtuse. The point here is to say--in a small sample set, this team's results do not match its performance. Longer term, we expect that based on the data, and given the same conditions, Emery's results will be worse. You're saying that the conditions will change--fcuking duh! Obviously! That isn't the point. The point is that, if we ran this season back 1,000 times and simulated everything based on the performance of the team, on average, what would our results look like? And we know from those simulations that this particular iteration of the team's results is at an unlikely high-end of results based on our performances.

The team right now is fool's gold, and is actually worse than last year's team, even with five star players added. The use of performance data is an attempt to isolate the effect Emery has had as a coach. Not you, or anyone else, can explain to me why we added five star, regular players to this squad last summer and have only improved by four+ points (while becoming a worse team performance-wise) compared to last season. Why should you entrust somebody who got Leno, Sokratis, Auba, Guendouzi, and Torreira, plugged them into a squad, and then made the team worse, to go through another transfer window and somehow come out with a different result?

Finally, you could make the argument that there is something about Emery's coaching of this team that isn't being captured by xG or other advanced stats. But you would be making the argument that Emery as a manager is a unique oddity in the entire world of football, as every other manager's team's results eventually hew towards what their performance metrics suggest they should be.

 

Actually, you did make my point.

Wow! Okay. Now, I know all that I need to know about your opinion. Thanks for that.

Actually, that's exactly the point. Predicting things when the conditions willl be different is stooopid.

Do you think those players played badly? I think those players outside of Ramsey and Lacazette were some of our top performers. Maybe, if we didn't lose our entire defense fotr periods of the season things would have been better. Playing Ozil centrally would have helped too. Not playing Mustafi at all would have helped as well.

No, I can't help you read. The point I was making is that Emery has done enough to keep his job, which was a very hard job to have given the circumstances. I think he did okay, although I recognize that he made mistakes, and I have pointed them out more than once. But you said it better than I could. I just wish that you all would remember:

 

Your point was that a statistic that uses xG as an input is better than xG? Damn dude, galaxy brain shit over here.

Not an opinion, a fact that his been stated to you by three separate posters now.

Saying "this team will be better once we spend 100mil on it" is the most basic assessment you could make. Asking, "How much value does Emery add to any team after 100mil is spent on it?" is the question we are pondering here. Right now it appears none.

The rest of the team played much worse under Emery than under Wenger. If you want to argue that we never had injury crises during Wenger years, be my guest. But it's pure selective amnesia. If your case is that Emery will have a good team after spending more, you may be in for a surprise! Our club is 100% skint, and Emery was literally hired over the competing potential managers because he was fine with having basically no transfer budged. They hired Emery specifically based on his professed ability to maximize the potential of our current squad. He has not done that.

LMAO. Yeah! I said it's a hard job! And Emery isn't good enough to do it! Simple.

 

The question was about Expected Assists...

 

The expected assist total is in large part based on where it's received, not by whom it is received. Thus the explanation of xG. Not that I think you'll bother to try and understand. This is like when Joe Morgan kept getting mad at Billy Beane.

 

The point was that the statistic that encompasses all was off, so there is a problem with the underlying data. That point seems to get lost on you.

And it’s not a fact. Put Henry, Iwobi and Kane, and Giroud at the same place at edge of the box and ask them to shoot, and the results won’t be the same. I really can’t believe that I have to say that. Some players shoot better than others (besides their movement of the ball). I’m shocked that I have to say that - kinda.

The assessment that I made was that the team was in bad shape. The players he added were our top performers. The rest did what they do. Lots of passengers in the side. He has had one real window to correct that. Maybe he did maximize the potential of the squad. Your point is the team was hot during the beginning of the season, shot well, got results that weren’t indicative of their performances, and then they went back to normal shite. That sounds like overperformance. That excludes the defensive issues. This horrible team is doing about as well as every team outside of the top two and *may* win Europa, qualifying for CL. Not too bad for a team in shambles with bad XG, Fs and Hs.

You have said it was the hardest job in football, but we should have gotten into the CL spots and should be in a European final. I don’t know what you expected (don’t answer. I don’t really care.)

 

Expected assists (xA)
Expected assists (xA) measures the likelihood that a given pass will become a goal assist. It considers several factors including the type of pass, pass end-point and length of pass.

I just going off of what I read..but you know more than Opta.

 

You're right that some players shoot better than others. However, the difference between the shooting ability of any of those four players is minimal in comparison to the value of shooting location. So, effectively, the quality of the shooter contributes much less to the value of a shot than the location of the shot contributes to the value of the shot.

The best parallel to shooting locations in soccer is basketball without a 3pt line. Dunks>layups>>jumpers>>>>long jumpers

 

I mean, you see where it says pass end-point right?

 

Yes. Did you see the rest?

 

That’s completely different from what was initially said.

 

Today James@Goonerblog labeled us the "Newcastle of the top 6"

 

Wow I remember when James AND arseblog actually liked Arsenal

 

No change detected. In fact those two guys might even love their club as much is the average Newcastle fan does.

 

No change?! Arseblog is remarkably different nowadays in his tone towards Arsenal, but that's because I started listening from day 1.

 

It's gotta be hard to grow up loving a team and see them stagnate because the person in charge doesn't care.

 

Dude, please..

 

I just think he only has a fastball, like a dominant closer. I still think that, but its very effective.

 

Idk - we've seen a lot of tactical variation from Liverpool. I was wrong about Klopp. Very wrong.