your 23 for france

Discussion in 'USA Women: News and Analysis' started by luvdagame, Apr 9, 2019.

  1. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    The snub makes no sense if we're going to ignore the elephant in the room - and the best American left back currently playing. Basically the two best healthy options at left back will be playing in NWSL this weekend.
     
  2. McSkillz

    McSkillz Member+

    ANGEL CITY FC, UCLA BRUINS
    United States
    Nov 22, 2014
    Los Angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Too bad she's a homophobe....
     
  3. lil_one

    lil_one Member+

    Nov 26, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Obviously Brian is a quality player when healthy, but she has not been healthy for months, and I question if she's actually fully there now. She's only played in one WNT game since Jan 1, 2019. That is the sticking point for many, I think. No one doubts that Brian can turn a game around when she's in form; we all saw that in 2015.
     
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  4. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    I'm pretty sure that's not the right word. I don't think there's any "fear" there. She actually has spent the last four years working closely with a group of staff and players that has a very significant number of LGBTQ persons, and having been up close to that group for the last two plus years, I see absolutely no issues on the field or in the locker room. They may not take weekend trips to the beach or mountains together, but the on the field success the group has sustained for the last three full seasons puts paid to the idea that she would somehow be a distraction in the team.

    With a vocal section of the fanbase, that's another question.
     
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  5. CoachJon

    CoachJon Member+

    Feb 1, 2006
    Rochester, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #105 CoachJon, May 4, 2019
    Last edited: May 4, 2019
    Moe v McCall

    Consider the circumstances under which Chris Henderson’s statistics were created.
    26 games 1/21/18 through 4/7/19
    Brian was at 16; Zerboni at 13
    Brian averaged 36 minutes per game she was rostered for; Zerboni 23
    Brian had 3-90 minute games; Zerboni had 1
    Brian had 6 starts; Zerboni had 2
    Comparing US goals scored (+) vs opponent goals scored (-) while on the pitch:
    Brian had +15 and -4 => net +0.31 per minute; Zerboni had +8 and -1 => net +0.31 per minute.

    The most telling statistic I saw was that Zerboni spent 90 minutes on the bench for each game at the 2019 SheBelieves Cup when the US had two 2-2 draws and one 1-0 win and Zerboni was not even at the Australia game that followed. (Brian was not rostered for any of those games). Clearly Ellis had, and still has, no faith in Zerboni vs. high quality teams, did not give her an opportunity against those teams and therefore her presumption was not, nor could it be challenged by Zerboni’s actual performance. Hence Zerboni was not chosen for the WC team.
     
  6. puttputtfc

    puttputtfc Member+

    Sep 7, 1999
    Absolutely but four years is an eternity in soccer. Physically, she has had some issues but sometimes players don't make a full recovery mentally. The passes are errant and soft, hesitant to tackle, making decisions a few seconds too late. Still, she wears the US jersey so I'll cheer for her.
     
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  7. Knight1Rider

    Knight1Rider Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Oct 5, 2018
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    USWNT 2019 World Cup Hype Video
     
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  8. Knight1Rider

    Knight1Rider Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Oct 5, 2018
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's like a baseball batter hitting .500 with two ABs in a season vs a batter hitting .350 with 20 ABs. The .500 hitter looks better because he's succeeded in limited opportunities, but hasn't had enough ABs for his average to get lower, whereas the .350 hitter looks worse, but is probably a better hitter overall because he has done well consistently with a much larger sample size. However, in this case, the player with the 50/50 chance to succeed (Zerboni) does not have better stats than the player with more opportunities to screw up (Brian), which means Morgan Brian's advantage over Zerboni is significantly larger than Henderson's stats advertise.
     
  9. CoachJon

    CoachJon Member+

    Feb 1, 2006
    Rochester, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #109 CoachJon, May 4, 2019
    Last edited: May 4, 2019
    It is not like a baseball batting average at all . The comparison you make is like comparing apples to breakfast sausage. What looking at the 2018 and 2019 games showed was not any kind of statistical sample size effect, but that Brian was always preferred to Zerboni.

    If Brian was healthy, there wouldn’t be a Zerboni vs. Brian discussion, but the fact is Brian has had set back after set back in getting to 100% fit, so right now she has more potential down side than Zerboni does; and with respect to leadership, Zerboni's upside completely eclipses anything Brian brings to the table.
     
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  10. Knight1Rider

    Knight1Rider Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Oct 5, 2018
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's exactly the same. Zerboni, with her small opportunities, should be outperforming Brian stats-wise (because we're dealing with percentages). However, she is not. Your argument that Zerboni should have received more play time is valid, but your claim that Brian's stats advantage shouldn't matter because she played more is not. FYI, in the game Zerboni gave her famous speech, she didn't play a minute. Make the argument for her over Long, not over Brian.
     
  11. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    What stats?
     
  12. CoachJon

    CoachJon Member+

    Feb 1, 2006
    Rochester, NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Your statement here is bogus. You seem to believe that a batter with, say 10 at bats should always have a higher batting average than the batter with 40 at bats, because they were up fewer times. I'm pretty sure that is incorrect.

    Like I explained, the Brian-Zerboni discussion is not about stats. And it only about Brian, not Long or any other midfielder right now because of Brian's suspect health.

    2015 was stellar for Morgan Brian, but it is 2019 and she is not the same.
     
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  13. Knight1Rider

    Knight1Rider Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Oct 5, 2018
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Pass completion percentage and percentage of tackles won
     
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  14. Knight1Rider

    Knight1Rider Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Oct 5, 2018
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No, I said usually you see people with less ABs having higher averages than people with more ABs. For example, Charlie Culberson for the Braves is batting .400 with 20 ABs, but Freddie Freeman is in the .311 with 122 ABs. Meanwhile, Alex Jackson has had 11 ABs and hasn't recorded a hit yet, so it's not always the case. My point is that if Zerboni were so good and comparable in talent to Brian (Culberson to Freeman is closer than Jackson to Freeman), she would have better stats like Culberson, not worse stats like Jackson. It would be understandable if Zerboni had better stats than Brian in less opportunities (like Culberson has better stats than Freeman in less opportunities), and you could project further from there, but she doesn't, she has worse stats. So, initially Morgan Brian appears to have better stats, and when you take into account the fact that she's played more and had more opportunities to screw up (as you pointed out initially), that actually validates the proof that Brian is better, rather than decreases the validity of it as you initially asserted. Zerboni is less talented and more likely to screw up and Brian is more talented and less likely to screw up (as evidenced by the stats and the fact that Brian made the World Cup at 22 and Zerboni got her first cap at 31).
     
  15. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think the stats necessarily demonstrate who is better -- although, as I recall, someone posted that Brian played against more difficult opposition. Rather, I think they demonstrate that the tone of many of the posts, to the tune that Zerboni clearly is the better player, was not based in the statistics on what the two of them did on the field for the WNT over the last year +.
     
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  16. jnielsen

    jnielsen Member+

    May 12, 2012
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    I'm worried about the lack of pace in our defense. Ertz, Horan, Brian and Mewis are all slow. Only the fullbacks have any speed, yet Ellis wants them upfield on offense. We are sitting ducks for the fast break. And, the competition already knows this.
     
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  17. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    The Mickey Mouse Club or The breakfast Club
    May 4, 2002
    Limbo
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Actually speed in the defense is often used for coverage of breakdowns in the "intelligence" of the defenders. I believe we have one of the smartest defenses in the world and they are very unlikely to get caught ball watching, like the US men so often are, leading to uncontested runs down the middle or dangerous fouls.

    Also I would never call Ertz and Horan "slow" at all. They are not blindingly fast like Dunn but they have more than enough speed for the positions they play. Also Ertz is, probably, the best ball winner in the world and it is unlikely she will be chasing the play often if at all.

    My only problem with that core is that Horan sometimes drifts off and plays "soft" but that has become less and less common and she may have been "corrected" often enough that it has become a non issue.

    My feeling is that if we have a clear problem at the WWC it will be that we try "possession" at the expense of attack and fail to score the goals that make the difference in a tight match.

    There is also the injury concern. If Ertz was to get injured we have no one that has shown her level ball winning ability and that means that we suddenly become less strong up the middle. For this WWC I believe that Ertz is the key player and if I were setting up to play against the US I would try, somehow, to get her occupied away from wherever the attack was planed to come. That means a lot of switching play and that means selection of outside players with real good long passing ability.

    BTW: In our group Sweden has that kind of outside players. They could be a real problem or they at least could get our defense tired playing against a lot of switches particularly if we try to hold the ball too much and let Sweden get set for counters that involve a switch.
     
  18. thegamesthatrate

    Jan 9, 2007
     
  19. thegamesthatrate

    Jan 9, 2007
    Those sentiments make sense, particularly recalling 2015 (when Ertz was the team's best player through the first four games).

    The other player who did the things she does well (win balls and turn recovered possession into movement into attack) in 2015 was Brian.

    I understand concerns about her health. But, if she is reasonably likely to be able to give it a go, she has proven ability not just to contribute, but to be the best player on the pitch (let's recall that Lloyd started scoring goals after Brian replaced her and freed her to move up front where, among other things, she benefited from attacks that Brian started).
     
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  20. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    The Mickey Mouse Club or The breakfast Club
    May 4, 2002
    Limbo
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    After rereading my post from earlier I feel that I need to clarify one thing:
    I said that Ertz would be our "key" player not that she would be our "best" player. The two are often the same player and they may be this time but Ertz will be doing so much of the dirty work and other teams may play away from her so much that it would not be surprising if she loses a lot of her glitter and visibility to other players. I simply feel that we do not have anybody that can step into her spot and replace her and bring most of what she brings.

    In a lot of ways she is the "Michell Akers" of this WWC. (Without the offensive punch that Akers had)
     
  21. thegamesthatrate

    Jan 9, 2007
    Fair clarification on "key" versus "best." She could emerge as both, but sometimes they are different.

    However, I would hesitate to expect her to be the Akers of this WWC. Ertz is a terrific player, but she is not the greatest women's player of all time, which Akers was for her entire career.
     
  22. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    The Mickey Mouse Club or The breakfast Club
    May 4, 2002
    Limbo
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    What made Akers so great was that she brought everything that Ertz brings and she brought a really great offense with an accurate powerful shot. While Ertz has much of the power she really lacks the accuracy. Also she is not the long passer Akers was, probably for the same reasons that Akers shot was so accurate. That is why I did not say she would be as great as Akers, just that she would shine for many of the same reasons Akers did in '99.

    This got me reminiscing and I remember sitting in the stands about 20 rows up behind the goal at a match leading up to the '99 WWC (Against Switzerland or Sweden or some other European country with a lot of blonds) and Akers hit a shot from about 35 yards out that was just below the crossbar and it never dipped at all. It had all the people around (including me) ducking in fear that it would not hit the net and wipe out several of us. I do not think I have ever seen a ball hit on goal harder by a woman and only very few by men.
     
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  23. lil_one

    lil_one Member+

    Nov 26, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm probably mangling the quote, but I seem to remember Scurry once talking about a contributing factor to her development was having to face Akers's shots every day in practice. I always wonder how much Akers could have accomplished had she not been playing through injuries and then CFIDS through her career.

    Anyway, back on topic: I don't know where Brian is health-wise, but I hope she gets some significant minutes in one of these last few games to test it out before the WWC. I personally don't want it to be like the Rapinoe Olympic situation where a semi-healthy player is getting tested at a major tournament and even thrown into a knockout match to save the day and then having to be subbed out again.
     
  24. hotjam2

    hotjam2 Member+

    Nov 23, 2012
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    #124 hotjam2, May 5, 2019
    Last edited: May 5, 2019
    here would be my picks im head to head matchups with the powerful French team, if these are the starters for both(pointed arrows indicate who won

    GK............Naylor<Bouhaddi

    DF...Sonnett<Torrent.......Dahlkemper>MBock.....Brunn>Renard.....Dunn<Karchao

    MD......Pugh>Henry..........Ertz<Thiney.............Horan<Majri

    FW....Heath=Cascarino........Morgan>Diani...........Rapnioe>ELS

    SUBS......US<France

    HOME ADV...........US>France

    COACH.........Ellis >Diacre

    while Diacre lost her sanity by not picking the French League's #1 scorer, Katato, she still the only one able to figure out how to beat Ellis's high press(quixk long balls over the top.which the other Euros coaches refsue toi do, instead stubbornly stick to their play-from-the-back game)

    so point wise, I got France slightly ahead, but the sub advantage should porbably count for more points, so advantage US?
     
  25. jackdoggy

    jackdoggy Member+

    May 16, 2014
    Big D
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Lil....do you ever sleep??!?:D
     

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