Neverending Story 3: The Ongoing Brexit Thread

He's not scary, he's laughable.

 

Looks like Brexit is starting to hit the polls. CHUK is the Chuka/Soubrey tinge group.

English & Welsh Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 41% (-1)
CON: 37% (-8)
LDEM: 10% (+2)
UKIP: 7% (+5)
GRN: 2% (-)
CHUK: 1% (+1)

via @Survation, 03 - 06 Apr
Chgs. w/ GE2017.pic.twitter.com/TohhdJ5UkX pic.twitter.com/8UzmVkLW56

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) April 11, 2019

"Labour should be miles ahead in the polls" will soon turn into "Labour should be on 80%"

 

Jebus...what is that? Did Boris go out and get a perm?

 

Don't trust one poll.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

Trust the average. The average from the last two weeks is not great for Labour OR the Conservatives.

 

The last few polls are all showing a big drop for the Tories and a small drop or no change for Labour (Kantar, BMG, Survation). The average won't reflect sudden changes. Even YouGov (which is unique amongst the polling companies in consistently showing the Tories well ahead all year) is showing a large drop for them.

 

Yes but again, please, don't forget the average. A smoothed, rolling average isn't worse than the latest few polls. There are many reasons why the "latest few polls" might not be representative -- they may pick up on more motivated Remainers, for example, while Leavers refuse to answer the phone or the door or the email -- and we shouldn't entirely discard what people have said in the last few weeks. Given how hardened opinions on Brexit have become, and how stable the Labour/Conservative coalitions really are, I am skeptical that a massive drop in Tory support will sustain itself.

 

I think you'll see the polls all over the place for a while now., but I do think the Tories will see a bigger hit. They recouped UKIP votes at the last election and they're the ones most likely to shift given what's happened

 

Also of note was John McDonnell yesterday indicating that Labour are likely to offer a second referendum on any deal. That could also impact the next round of polling if anything more formal comes out of it (and that is probably a reasonably big if)

 

I'm going out canvassing for the May local elections and, whilst national stuff shouldn't be an issue, people want to talk about it.

I'm also doing data entry of returns for myself and others.

Subjectively it looks like the tory voters aren't going to turn out, (and I suspect the data will confirm it), so I'm not particularly surprised they're dropping in the polls.

 

It is the entrenched positions people have taken that's why some of the people I've spoken to, (that we have listed as previous tory voters), aren't going to vote for anybody atm.

 

What is it with these right-wing loonies and hair??? Very strange.

 

Wow, did Billy Bragg sign off on that?

 

Yeah, he wrote the extra verse for her as well.

 

haven't listened to Billy Bragg in a while

need to fix that

 

Stephen Dorrell is leaving the tories and even Ken Clarke says he might if they get a brexit head-banger in charge.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...l-defection-change-uk-tory-poll-five-year-low

The latest defections come as a new Opinium poll for the Observer shows a dramatic fall in Tory support in the past two weeks and a surge for anti-EU parties. The Conservatives have fallen by six percentage points to 29% compared to a fortnight ago. It is their worst position since December 2014. Labour is up one point on 36% while Ukip is up two points on 11%.

Even more alarmingly for the Tories, their prospects for the European elections appear dire. Only 17% of those certain to vote said they would choose the Conservatives in the European poll, while 29% would back Labour, and 25% either Ukip (13%) or Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party (12%).​

The European elections, of course, are on a PR basis.

The last time the tories were that low was in 2014 and they only reversed the position for the 2015 GE by promising an EU referendum

 

Stay focused Naughty....the end is nigh!

 

It's sometimes hard to know if these are simply a civil servant screwing up, the rules themselves being poorly written or some peculiar anomaly in the person's circumstances that aren't reflected in their version of the story.

 

I'm not going to bring up the massive Corbyn anti-Semitism story. It's beneath me to remind everyone that he's trash.

So I won't do it.

 

The massive non-story y'mean, which nobody gave a shit about only a few years back... that one.

The reason it isn't playing in the polls is because nobody particularly believes it and because, bluntly, nobody particularly cares about anti-semitism. Jews over here tend to be pretty invisible, unlike Muslims whose number is roughly ten times that of the Jewish population, (260k vs. 2.6 million).

So it doesn't matter HOW much the meeja keep banging on about it, nobody really a) believes it, or b)cares.

Well, except the Jews, obviously... and who are they gonna vote for, the tories? Good luck with that guys.

 

You make it easy for people to dislike you.

 

Dude, you have some good posts and good moments, but this one is not one of them. Pretty disappointing and despicable to be honest....

 

I'm just trying to explain why this narrative that, 'When people really find out about Corbyn they'll be upset', is largely bullshit.

Also, if it wasn't clear anyway, (although personally I think I made it MORE than clear but there we are ), I'm not suggesting people SHOULDN'T be concerned about antisemitism. I'm just saying that people don't generally think it's much of an issue over here... even if it is. It just isn't something on people's radar because they don't care about the Jews, one way or the other, and most people don't KNOW anyone who cares, one way or the other, about the Jews.

Generally, most ordinary people over here quite like Jews. Well, a lot more than they like the mosse-lambs, that's for sure.

It's the aristocracy that have a problem with them over here and most people don't think of themselves in that way.

In my canvassing recently I don't think I've heard ANYONE mention anything about the Jews or antisemitism. They talk about the local A&E closing, the rates, jobs, food prices, rent prices, etc. etc.

That's why ANY amount of antisemitism stuff hasn't moved the dial and probably won't. Of course, it helps that the founder of Momentum himself is a Jew and has generally supported Corbyn, even if he thinks we need to do more about the issue.

Of course, as I explained before, it's also the case that people think the whole thing is cooked up by the meeja. THAT annoys them more than the story itself, tbh.

I'm just trying to explain why the polls haven't moved. You can accept the point or not as yous see fit

 

It would be hard for me to come up with a word other than "bigoted" to describe what you're doing here.

There is a way to make that argument without coming across as bigoted.

You're not doing it.

It's up to you to decide whether or not you change your rhetoric.