That has been my impression ever since I moved to the US 15 years ago. Due to turnout, special elections are the least likely elections for Democrats to prevail, followed by midterms, with presidential election days the most favorable. This is the opposite of Denmark, in which leftist candidates actually do better in most special elections or by-elections. I dunno, maybe it's a California thing, because turnout is always miserable for special elections here, although I see that Texas seems to have the same problem. https://www.expressnews.com/news/lo...Democrats-Tuesday-was-the-latest-13613920.php But yes, maybe there is greater reason to be hopeful in the age of Trump.
As superdave said, since Nov 2016 the Dems have done very well. The article you linked seems to focus specifically on Texas, and maybe even San Antonio.
Better than before Trump's election, but still mixed results. You're in Wisconsin? Dems just lost the Wisky Supreme Court special election, losing to a hard-right conservative. Turnout problems, right?
If the quote said “Since November 2018”, you might be able to say “mixed results”, but it’s hard to argue they haven’t done “very well” since November 2016...
In special elections, Dems flipped two house seats, and one Senate seat in the 2017-1018 election cycle. The flip of one of the House seats (PA-7), was due at least in part to the new map drawn by the PA Supreme Court, while the Senate flip was against a right-wing child molester, which was apparently a bit too much even for Alabama. Granted, Dems ran closer races in most of the special elections than before, but only had those three flips. Probably my biggest disappointment was the failure to flip the Mississippi Senate seat against the openly racist Cindy Hyde-Smith. California District 34 General: 4/4/17 Runoff: 6/6/17 Democratic Hold Kansas District 4 General: 4/11/17 Republicans Hold Georgia District 6 General: 4/18/17 Runoff: 6/20/17 Republicans Hold South Carolina District 5 Primary: 5/2/17 General: 6/20/17 Republicans Hold Montana At-Large General: 5/25/17 Republicans Hold Utah District 3 Primary: 8/15/17 General: 11/07/17 Republicans Hold Alabama Senate GOP Runoff: 9/26/17 General: 12/12/17 Democratic Flip Pennsylvania District 18 General: 3/13/18 Democratic Flip Arizona District 8 Primary: 2/27/18 General: 4/24/18 Republicans Hold Ohio District 12 Primary: 5/8/18 General: 8/7/18 Republicans Hold Texas District 27 General: 6/30/18 Republicans Hold Michigan District 13 General: 11/6/18 Democratic Hold Minnesota Senate General: 11/6/18 Democratic Hold Mississippi Senate General: 11/6/18 Republicans Hold New York District 25 General: 11/6/18 Democratic Hold Pennsylvania District 7 General: 11/6/18 Democratic Flip Pennsylvania District 15 General: 11/6/18 Republicans Hold https://www.opensecrets.org/races/special-elections
https://ballotpedia.org/Special_elections_to_the_116th_United_States_Congress_(2019-2020) has a table. The formatting isn't great, so click on the link if you want to see it better: "Results of special elections to Congress (1986-2012) Election cycle Total special elections U.S. House elections Seats changing partisan control U.S. Senate elections Seats changing partisan control 2011-2012 11 11 None None None 2009-2010 15 10 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) 5 2 (all Republican gains) 2007-2008 14 12 3 (2 Republican gains; 1 Democratic gain) 2 None 2005-2006 12 12 3 (all Democratic gains) None None 2003-2004 6 6 None None None 2001-2002 6 5 2 (all Democratic gains) 1 1 (Republican gain) 1999-2000 9 8 1 (Republican gain) 1 1 (Democratic gain) 1997-1998 3 3 None None None 1995-1996 11 9 1 (Republican gain) 2 1 (Democratic gain) 1993-1994 9 6 1 (Republican gain) 3 3 (all Republican gains) 1991-1992 10 7 2 (all Republican gains) 3 1 (Democratic gain) 1989-1990 10 8 1 (Democratic gain) 2 None 1987-1988 12 12 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) None None 1985-1986 8 8 1 (Republican gain) None None Total 136 117 21 (11 Democratic gains; 10 Republican gains) 19 9 (6 Republican gains; 3 Democratic gains)" That is only for Congress, so it excludes the Wisconsin Supreme Court. 2 of the 3 House vacancies are in North Carolina. Tomorrow there are primaries for District 3, which elected unopposed Republican Walter B. Jones Jr., who died of ALS (Lou Gehrig's disease) on February 10. To win a primary, a candidate needs at least 30 percent. If one or both parties does not have anybody get 30 percent, there will be a runoff primary on July 9 and a general election on September 10. If one primary is sufficient, the general election will be on July 9. District 9 had Republican Mark Harris win slightly but not be seated by the House because he worked with somebody who was charged with crime about absentee ballots. That election is being redone with primaries on May 14, either runoff primaries or the general election on September 10 (the same day as District 3 will have its general election if they need a runoff), and if a runoff primary is needed, the general election will be on Election Day on November 5. Pennsylvania's District 12 had Republican Tom Marino resign to work in private practice on January 23. The special election will be on May 21 without primaries first. All three of those districts had Republicans before the 2018 elections and had Republicans win the votes in 2018 (including when the votes weren't accepted), so Democrats have nothing to lose. Since special elections are not from a random sample of the population, they aren't a great measure. In addition to a possible House election in North Carolina-9, the most important decisions on November 5 include governors of Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The Republican incumbent is running in Kentucky, the Democratic incumbent is running in Louisiana, and the Republican incumbent cannot run in Mississippi because he reached his term limit. Federal law says that states cannot make term limits for members of Congress, but they can make term limits for state offices. In the 2000s and 2010s so far, 30 members of Congress died in office. 22 were in the House and 8 were in the Senate. 14 of them died of cancer. These include having "cancer" in the name and other cancers like leukemia. 19 were Democrats and 11 were Republicans. 24 were men and 6 were women.
There was a special election yesterday in my neck of the woods. It's a thoroughly white, largely rural neck of the woods; the kind of place that used to be called a tossup. The Democrat won with 74% of the vote. (Not a typo.) My takeaway is that the Republican Party has just absolutely cratered in places where they used to rely on independents and moderates to win.
It's a thoroughly white, largely rural neck of the woods; That sounds like Republican territory, unless you are over estimating how rural it is.
To NY, it's rural a.f. But to people from downstate Illinois, thanks to the rumors that minorities live nearby, and proximity to public transit, it's practically the inner city.
That is ignoring the 2018 election https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin_Supreme_Court_elections,_2018 And to Governor's race with the defeat of Walker (and the Republicans have a very substantial network here in the state, so the defeat of Walker is very notable). In terms of this most recent vote, it was so heavily under promoted that even I missed the vote (I was also moving at that time and had not updated my registration yet - which is not a real excuse).
Here's one of the candidates in NC-9. Here's an ad from one of them. Interesting look into the GOP zeitgeist.
That clown ad said he was "battle-tested". I looked up the guy's background, and he doesn't appear to have any military service. I'm wondering if "battle-tested" is some kind of code that right wingers or Q followers understand.
I know this will probably get lost here, but it's great stuff. https://medium.com/@yghitza_48326/revisiting-what-happened-in-the-2018-election-c532feb51c0 Comparing 2018 to 2016, the Dems gained 5 points. 90% of that was due to people changing their minds, and 10% was due to differences in turnout.
Reading that and makes me wonder if this was about on-line schools and/or charter schools, both of which are huge in Florida.
Gonna leave this here: They were notified shortly before the 2018 midterms when I came across the exposed data.The data set included voting system master passwords which were labeled as having the capability to reset machines as well as other administrative powers.— Chris Vickery (@VickerySec) June 7, 2019
Infamous McRae passed away: McCrae Dowless, the man who was the center of the #NC09 election fraud investigation, died this morning, his attorney tells @wsoctv. Dowless was battling cancer. pic.twitter.com/kfbngDzjCD— Joe Bruno (@JoeBrunoWSOC9) April 24, 2022