That was the role he was asked to play in New York. And he could be pretty successful in Europe just carving out that role for himself. But he already seems to be moving past that in Leipzig, which is what has me so excited about his future. At the age of 20, he is gaining in confidence playing within a familiar system but being given the opportunity to develop in a challenging environment. I can tell you what San Jose was able to do scoring the opening goal (and creating several other chances) because the New York outside backs like to push up. Without an Adams there to help clean up those messes Espinoza was able to get around Duncan for a pretty cheap goal, but tactically smart goal. And Murillo got burned a couple of times, too. Guess what? San Jose's Mexican coach no doubt designed their game plan specifically to exploit this formational weakness. Anyone else think that Tata Martinez can come up with a similar scheme to take advantage of Adams forward runs? Unless you've got someone like Aaron Long lined up with Brooks, the backline won't have a ghost of a chance of catching wingers who run into that space.
I mean MB and Trapp also have slow feet and lack quickness to dribble past people.... plus his attacking is not overstated, nobody considers Brooks a dribbler but people know he can pass, which you acknowledge he can as well. That seems to be 95% of what the 6 calls for in this system considering playing defense certainly doesn’t seem required.
Actually, expected goals wouldn't necessarily have anything to do with the actual number of goals scored. Expected goals is a theoretical value based on probabilities that would be used to predict the number of goals that should result. Depending upon how it is set up it probably is/was used to take the GK out of the equation. some examples: a sitter at the top of the 6 yard box might be worth.999 goal (99.9% of the time that is a goal), a shot from 30 yards might be worth .015 (1.5% of the time it results in a goal) and a shot from just inside the penalty box is worth .35 (35% chance of a goal). The three of those opportunities would give an expected goal score of .999+.015+.35 = 1.364 goals. That would be the expected goal score regardless of how many goals were actually scored. One major advantage is that it removes outside variables (how good is the goalie, for instance), which allows you to better focus in on the defense. It gives a different way to evaluate a performance that is somewhat independent of the actual results (opposing striker had two wonder goals from 35 yards that left the keeper with no chance or the keeper let one through his legs and dropped a ball into the path of an opposing striker etc. A disadvantage is that it is only as good as the data and the parameters and that can be a bit difficult to put together.
I'm not so worried about Adams being able to cover the ground in the scheme as I understand it. I am primarily worried about two things that come immediately to my mind. They are related 1. Complexity. Soccer is a simple game. It is a cliche, but it is true. no matter how much the game has changed, it still comes down to a few basic concepts. There are many people who come up with complicated schemes that fail....not because they are bad schemes but because they are overly complicated and they depend on everything working. If one are in defense breaks down, the whole system fails. this is more important in international soccer because the smaller amount of time players have together gives less familiarity with a system....more likely to break down. 2. Much of the system seems to require lateral movement by the defense (Adams position). On offense, lateral movement is good because it confuses defenses and creates spaces, gaps, seams and unbalanced matchups (two guys marking one while another runs free). A defense wants everyone in front of them. As soon as the defense begins moving sideways and the opposing offense starts running diagonally and crossing runs, a complex system just got more complex. I don't know as much as Berhalter or many on this board, so I'll wait and see what happens and see what happens going forward. Edit: 2.b The traditional vertical movement (outside back overlapping is generally (in my mind) somewhat less problematic because if something goes wrong it is generally isolated on the wing where if the defense is moving laterally, the hole could be right down the middle. Obviously it isn't good to have a man running wide open down the sideline but it is a bit better than down the middle.
In the 7 starts at rb/rwb that WS logs Adams as having played during the '17 MLS season, he averaged an astonishing 7.63, which matches the David Villa-leading season average. Adams's 2 key passes per match in those 7 would have been good for 15th. In the games I saw, he was certainly a dynamic presence on both sides of the ball. His box from a September game against TFC, a 2-4 loss against the future league and MLS champs. He had a primary assist. He also had a primary assist on the pk. Partially building an attack around an attacking right back who excels in both the under lap and the over lap is credible. Pep did that with devastating effect when Dani Alves was brought to Barca. Alves was Messi's leading assist man for a while. But 3G's description of the Adams's remit comes across as being more about protecting Bradley/Trapp than enabling Adams. We'll see. https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2009/jan/26/dani-alves-barcelona-leo-messi
I expect Adams to be good at right back. He is a good player. That is not the question for me. We keep hearing from the powers that be that we should experiment with him at right back. Well, he hasn't played a single game at center midfield under this new coach either. So I would have liked to see Berhalter "experiment" by putting Adams at his true position, and give him the opportunity to show that he can do the things that Gregg wants his #6 to do. If he couldn't, then you move on. Instead, before he even got him in camp, he was skyping Adams in Germany to instruct him on what he expected from him at the right back position. THAT is my problem … our best form and maybe most talented #6 not even getting an opportunity to compete for the spot. But again, to your point of Adams being good at right back, yes, I expect him to do well. The guy can certainly play that position.
I'll agree that it's absolutely shocking the lack of direct discussion in the US Soccer media about ramifications of playing Adams at right back. We've seen several articles analyzing the nuances guiding Berhalter's choice to play Adams as a hybrid right back/midfielder, and that's great! Most of the articles have been interesting. The problem is that there are very obvious lines of inquiry that aren't being explored. We haven't seen any articles discussing the personnel choices dictated by Berhalter's tactical choice. There have been few, if any, articles discussing the advantages of Bradley and Trapp over the other DM options like Canouse. Or what about playing Adams or McKennie as the #6? And maybe there are deficiencies with the current US fullbacks that necessitate shifting Adams and playing Bradley/Trapp - but we haven't seen any articles about the US fullbacks. And if major journalists or analysts truly believe that Bradley or Trapp deserve to start in central midfield for the U.S. in 2019 (and maybe some people do believe that), then go ahead and directly make that argument, even if you believe in greater roles for them than either McKennie or Adams. In defense of the media, I'll say that I don't know many national media outlets actually have full-time tactical analysts on the US Soccer beat. Most are primarily beat reporters and insiders that require access, sadly. Also, for obvious reasons, this is a dangerous subject (like labor negotiations) for an MLSSoccer.com analyst to cover. But Sports Illustrated, ESPN, the Athletic, Fox Sports, Yahoo - I would have hoped that at least one of these outlets would have a tactical writer who could take a critical look at some of these subjects before the Ecuador match. Berhalter's experiment might work - it could even work brilliantly - but it's being presented as the only tactical option for the U.S. national team right now, which is not at all accurate.
Whether Adams can be a game-changing attacking-fullback, rather than simply a 'good fullback' is the question here. Otherwise, it's not worth moving him.
If tonight goes well, then we'll see the same rationale. Except instead of "we'll see how it goes?", it will be "why criticize what worked?".
I spent the match wondering why is Gregg doing this and a couple of things come to mind. 1.We have lots of adequate def. mids and very few adequate wingers or left backs. 2. Ream may be an adequate LB in this specific system. 3. Yedlin is better than a lot of the people we trot out at winger. On paper Gregg's solution makes sense because I think we can all agree that Adams can cover both positions in this hybrid role False6 role. It doesn't work in reality though. In reality Yedlin just doesn't have the ball skills to be a winger. What he's good at is surprising the defense with overlapping runs and that doesn't happen. Adams can play the False6 but he really didn't add much to the attack, certainly less than Yedlin routinely does and there's a chance for a real problem on counters. Neither Bradley nor Trapp is as good of a defensive mid as Adams. Really the only potential positive is Ream and if we're really honest at his best Ream is a Championship level player. He's marginally if that better than Robinson as a player currently but Robinson has the potential to be a higher level player in time. Play it normal Gregg, please, with Robinson or someone else at LB.
My econometrics prof used to say, "there are liars, damn liars, and statisticians." While you've given me the statistical basis for the model, I'd still circle back to a more street level explanation. Even econometricians have to give cogent, understandable definition to their findings, or it's not worth very much. I appreciate that you've attempted to explain in more detail the reasoning of the model, it something I didn't know. That said, I would still circle back to the point, that Columbus was structured defensively to minimize the easy goal chances, staying compact and laying back a bit, so that you don't give up as many sitters, which is fine, but they ended up well back in the pack of the standings. What I was venturing to get at is they weren't as good at stopping other types of goals, when faced with exceptional teams that could score in unexpected ways, goals that are relatively low percentage, but which skillful teams find a way to score. If there is a through line from Berhalter's Columbus team to the Nats, I am concerned that when faced with a better team than Ecuador, how well prepared the team will be to stop them scoring. Ecuador started three d-mids in the middle of the park, so Adams could attack almost at will. A team like last year's Atlanta would have sniffed this out and exploited the gap. Whether that might have resulted in an expected goal or not is a troubling question to me. Teams like Mexico and Costa Rica like to change the point of attack and are perfectly willing to hit screamers from distance. They live to create set piece opportunities and frustrate teams by shifting players around and creating mismatches. Parking the bus isn't really an option if this team is gearing up to make a run in the World Cup. Defending well in dynamic and fluid situations is a higher priority, IMO.
I kind of think the starting formation was partly about having Trapp out there in a Busquets role, was about having one water carrier supporting the Three Amigos of Adams, Mckennie and Pulisic. Whether that is really necessary is an open question, it is hard to prove a negative. I'd venture to say that much of what Adams did last night that was good came because he knew there was someone behind him to help clean up, but most often that was Long, not Trapp.
all good points. i really want to hear what JEsse Marsch have to say about this formation and TA's new role. if we have better players than Ream, Morris, Yedlin, Trapp playing those respective roles, then and only then should we put TA in that false 6 position.
Well here is TA's passing chart. Pretty solid if you ask me. Frankly, it almost looks like he played a central-right sided midfield position.
RBL wants to make Champions League and would like to have him back, ready and rested for their match against Hertha? German clubs are noted for wanting their players properly rested and with him playing Tuesday night, traveling Wednesday back to Germany, he would likely not be properly rested to start on Saturday, at least in their eyes.
He was too good, even in a RB position. GGG wouldn't have any of that. Adams gone, McKennie gone. Pulisic might was well get on a plane and get the hell outta here.