My team won the Brazil Cup and was relegated back in 2012. Brazil Cup winners get a Libertadores spot.
A bit like when Wigan won the FA Cup in 2012-13, but, was relegated from the BPL. They got a group stage spot in EL.
I think Villarreal will pull it out (escape relegation), earlier this season Bilbao was in the drop zone and now is comfortably mid table. Villarreal's goal difference and their Europa League performance both suggest they are a bit better than a relegated Liga or Segunda squad. Interestingly, Villarreal B host Barca B tomorrow and are currently in line for the playoffs (2nd place in their tercera). I know both clubs (first team and b team) cannot both be in Liga, but could both be in Segunda at the same time? I'm guessing maybe not, so if Villarreal were relegated maybe Villarreal B could not take part in playoffs or at least not advance to Segunda even if they won the right to do so. Anyone know?
Second division teams in the Europa League/UEFA Cup has happened a few times. I remember Alemannia Aachen reached but lost the German Cup final in 2005 but qualified for the UEFA Cup since Cup winners Werder Bremen had also won the Bundesliga and entered the Champions League. Also happened many times in the old Cup Winners Cup. But never in the European Cup/Champions League
This goes more to the CL forecasting so putting it here instead of OTT: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/psgs-collapse-completes-a-week-of-champions-league-mayhem/
So going back to the round of 16, before the draw, the top 4 favorites all made it through (in order) ManC, Barca, Juve, Liverpool; they are joined by the #10 ManU, #11 Spurs, #12 Ajax, and #14 Porto. Again that is the bookmakers favorites. Come Friday the draw will be made, and this year it will be for the entire path to the final, and I dare say that there is a great likelihood of a death bracket wherein 3 or even 4 of the top 4 teams land. Not that the other 4 teams are bad at all, just have a feeling that in an unseeded draw at least 2 of the top 4 will play immediately, and again, just a guess, that 3 of the top 4 will be on one side of the draw. But screw it let's draw Juve and get the Helmond back. EDIT - for those keeping track at home the upsets were #5 PSG (losing to #10 seed), #6 Real (losing to the #12 seed), #9 BVB losing to the #11 seed. Also losing were #7 Bayern but to higher seeded #4 Liverpool, and #8 Atleti but to higher seeded #3 Juve. #15 Lyon had the misfortune to draw #2, and #16 Schalke had the misfortune to draw #1. PRE DRAW ODDS: MAN CITY 2.55 (28/11) BARCA 4 JUVE 4 POOL 5.5 MAN U 13 SPURS 15 AJAX 25 PORTO 75 I think that these will change a great deal if three or more of the top seeds wind up on one side of the draw, or two of the top four draw each other (which has to happen in the former scenario of 3 being on one side of the bracket).
The intensity Juve showed yesterday I am afraid we could be in trouble vs them. ManU / Spurs / Porto preferable draws. Ajax could be trouble. If they played like they did in R16 and can finish, I could see them being trouble too. Liverpool don't look as strong as last season.
Yeah, I'd actually prefer the easy path and the 3 you mentioned would be easiest followed by Ajax. The draw will be fascinating, particularly because it covers the quarterfinals and the semifinals, so the entire route to the final.
Poll on Barca's website asks about preferred opponents, while one of the easier opponents got the most votes Porto 37%, next was a very tough Juve 25%, then ManU 13%, Ajax 9%, Spurs again 7%, Liverpool 5%, ManC 4%.
Can't be scared of a strong opponent, bring on City, Juve, or Pool, and lets get this the eff over with.
The quarterfinal stage. The bogeyman of the past three seasons needs to be exorcised. Funny thing is, some mentioned how Barca may have had TOO MUCH REST following the Liga Classico leading up to the Lyon second leg. Yet if Barca get knocked out in the UCL quarterfinals again it was because of all those CdR games from January/February. Because it fits the agenda. [emoji19]
Order of opponent preference... Real Madrid - the return of the all-mighty Zidane doesn’t scare me and besides, Sergio Ramos is suspended for the first leg! Porto Man Utd Ajax Tottenham Man City Juventus Liverpool - As I mentioned before, the history of Barca v Liverpool frightens more than anything including the all-mighty Zidane in the UCL. What I really do NOT want to see are the four EPL teams avoiding each other in the quarters. Ideal draw for me: Porto - Barcelona Juventus - Man City Liverpool - Ajax Tottenham - Man Utd
Porto - hello again Casillas ManU - remind them of those finals ... Tottenham - already beat them this season Ajax - actually think they could be trouble Liverpool - with Coutinho on the bench would be funny Juventus - you did it in 3 clubs ? How about Messi knocks you out of the CL in those 3 clubs. How sweet would that be? Man City - well ... it's Pep Normally I'd not care about Juve even with Ronaldo, but the intensity they showed yesterday felt like what Roma did to us last season. And I think we'd struggle with that intensity + physicality. And we just never travel well to Italy. But last 3 are about the same to be honest. Ditto on the ideal draw.
Bring on ****** Juve!! Might as well go for the head of the snake. Every opponent will be tough as nails. Doesn't matter who we draw.
I heard Spurs will move to their new stadium beginnign August. Not sure if that includes CL though(?)
Yeah, I could see Ajax playing us off the park a bit. They would be good to avoid. OTOH Porto is probably the most similar team to last year's Roma. So any draw is dangerous. I'd say ManUtd or Spurs are my preferred picks.
Former and future white devils (former - Casillas and Pepe; future - they just signed Éder Militão for 50M [Porto just bought him last summer for 8M from São Paulo, it also seems to take them out of the De Ligt race if they were ever in it]). Particularly given Dembele's injury, and how he re-injured himself racing back from his last injury, I'd really prefer an easier opponent, but any of those 4 would do, just prefer we delay a possible showdown with ManC, Liverpool, or Juve for a round or two.
EUROPA game 2 to find final 8 MY picks to advance in order of certainty: most certain VILLARREAL over ZENIT CHELSEA over Dynamo KIEV NAPOLI over SALZBURG pretty certain VALENCIA over KRASNODAR SEVILLA over Slavia PRAGUE more of a toss up RENNES over ARSENAL BENFICA over Dinamo ZAGREB INTER over EINTRACHT @Danko @condor11 and any others please put in your guesses before the early kickoffs in 40 minutes
These computer percentages, like the odds I posted earlier, will change after the draw tomorrow. If you are a betting person Porto and Ajax are the longshot plays that pay well according the the %s, Liverpool amongst the favorites is the only one with reasonable odds compared to computer modeled %s.
Hehe I was late. Just saw the end of Slavia coming back on Sevilla. God damn La Liga teams overall doing horribly in Europe this year.
Meh, only 5 for 8, 3 for 3 in the most certain games, 1 for 2 in the pretty certain, 1 for 3 in the toss up. Pre-draw computer to win: Chelsea 24% & 2.75:1 oddsmakers Napoli 18% & 4 Arsenal 15% & 4 Valencia 15% & 9 (one to bet IF you trust the computer) Benfica 11% & 14 (one to bet) Eintracht 10% &14 (one to bet) Villarreal 7% & 18 (one to bet) Slavia Prague >1% Interestingly the top 6 of eight teams all have at least 50% odds of making the semifinals, which is sort of impossible but works out because they only give Slavia a 14% shot, and only give the favorites a 68% shot, and it is all dependent on the draw. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/europa-league/ https://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner
The league is pretty much hanging its hat on Villarreal and nothing else. I mean Valencia got kicked to EL from its CL failure so nothing to brag about there. The first place team one would simply assume would reach the CL quarters. But a team in the relegation zone still alive in Europe, via beating the best team in Russia, is at least something that points to the quality in La Liga that exists all the way to the bottom of the table.