As a team, Messiah has a .185 GAA. That's impressive. Here are the top 10 in GAA: 1 Randolph-Macon .148 2 Messiah .185 3 Trinity (TX) .194 4 Centre .249 5 Texas-Dallas .263 6 Washington-St. Louis .285 7 Cal Lutheran .292 8 Dominican (IL) .294 9 Hope .299 10 Scranton .304 Messiah also scores. They average an impressive 3.88 goals per game. Top 10 scoring teams: 1 Penn St.-Berks 5.88 2 CCNY 4.93 3 Webster 4.61 4 Finlandia 4.29 5 Trinity (TX) 4.27 6 Hardin-Simmons 3.93 7 Messiah 3.88 8 Dominican (IL) 3.76 9 Rowan 3.75 10 Keuka 3.73
Does Chicago need to beat Wash U on the final game of their season (Sat 2:30) in order to secure an at large Pool C bid to the big dance?
I don't believe that they'll need to beat WashU to get an at-large but if the Maroons do lose, keeping it respectable will surely help the cause. I was surprised that UC lost the games to Brandeis and NYU last weekend. Losing to Brandeis was perhaps more understandable and the stats bore that out. UC had a few more shots than Brandeis but the Judges were able to put more shots on frame. Against NYU, UC had a 29-5 advantage in shots but only put 11 on frame while NYU put 3 of theirs 5 shots on frame with one finding the back of the net. This brings me to what I think is the crux of UC's problem this season, that is if you really want to think that the Maroons have a "problem." They're still a really good team. Anyway, finishing is an issue for the Maroons. Last season they scored 3.33 goals per game. This year, at 2.88 goals per they're still scoring decently but not at the same level as 2017. Additionally, in 2017 UC was scoring well against more formidable sides. This season a lot of the goals are coming vs lesser sides. McKinney & Watkins are still very productive players but Jasminski's production is down compared to her freshman year. Spiker and Calamari are missed more than I originally thought that they would be. In particular, Calamari's play making skills are sorely missed and is one of the primary causes that UC is not finishing as many chances this season. Another factor this season is the defense. At .88 GAA this season vs .29 in 2017, it just isn't as stingy. The comparison of GD from 2017 & 2018 is notable and accentuates the GAA. Last season, albeit this is reflective of a 24 game season due to the deep run to the final game, UC was +73 on the year. This year, and up to this point comparing 7 less games, UC is at +34. Only 7 goals were conceded in all of 2017 vs 15 this year. With an increase in GAA many people are quick to point the finger on the defense or a lack in keeping. More often than not the problem resides in the midfield. If the midfield, or even the attacking 1/3, can't hold possession, this puts a lot of pressure on the back. Yes, it often starts with the attackers and trickles on back. I have watched some UC games this season and the midfield sometimes is not adept at holding possession. Unsurprisingly, there is tremendous pressure on the defenders and the keeper. In some of those games that started in UC's attacking 1/3 and an inability to hold possession up top. This is also not surprising when looking at the decrease in offensive production. The two go hand in hand. I have digressed long enough from the original question and, again, I believe that UC can lose against WashU and still dance. The Maroons are still a very good team - just not as good as last year's. UC still looks to be in decent shape in the NCAA Regional Rankings. The rankings as of yesterday, and prior to any games last evening, are below. I tried formatting to something more readable but don't have the time to work on it any further. CENTRAL REGION (data sheet) Rank School Div. III Record Div. III SOS Results vs Ranked Overall Record Prev.Rank 1. Washington U. 16-0-0 0.647 8-0-0 16-0-0 1 2. Wheaton (Ill.) 15-3-0 0.623 5-2-0 15-3-0 2 3. Hope 13-1-2 0.584 3-1-1 13-1-2 4 4. Chicago 13-3-1 0.614 2-3-1 13-3-1 3 5. Augustana 13-2-3 0.512 3-1-0 13-2-3 5 6. Illinois Wesleyan 12-4-1 0.582 1-3-1 12-4-1 6 7. Webster 16-2-1 0.497 0-1-0 16-2-1 7 Here is a link to the data sheet of Central Region teams: https://d2o2figo6ddd0g.cloudfront.net/5/p/bekd5oncho234x/Central_Women_Data_10-31-18.pdf
A bigger uncertainty than Chicago making the dance will be if Illinois Wesleyan makes it in if they don't win the CCIW tournament. Last evening the Titans beat Augustana in the CCIW semi-finals and now play Wheaton in the final on Saturday. IWU was looking good to make the NCAAs until 2 consecutive ill-timed regular season losses to Augustana and Carroll. Those were both games that should have been wins for IWU. Injuries to key players, a very young team, the loss of a key assistant that left to take the HC job at Carthage, and a new young head coach that is still finding his way is all looking like it may be a bit much for them this season. It was definitely a growing year for the team and they're succeeding somewhat in spite of the adversity they've faced.
PLAYSimple, you are probably right. Buuuut, the UAA is spread to Hell and Back geographically - so they have teams in 4 regions. Brandeis has a 4 spot in what is otherwise the Nescac Region. NYU has a 6 in the East. UC holds a 4 in the central where WashU is #1. IF...UC loses, you could see them slipping even farther in that region, all while NYU and Brandeis hold legitimate claims at getting the tourney nod before them. If UC loses, they better hope NCAA’s generosity extends to 4 or 5 UAA teams in the brackets.
UAA will get 5. Winner of Emory/Rochester will get in as well as Chicago and Brandeis. NYU is more of a bubble team in their region if they lose to Brandeis but you have to remember- every team in those NCAA regional rankings will take another loss or draw this week OR get their AQ and be off the board for at-large consideration. When you take away all the AQ's, the 4 remaining UAA teams will compare very well with everyone else's next best team. Only issue is if NYU and Rochester both lose then likely only one of them will get in since they are in the same region.
Good question and it doesn't look smart. The Centennial actually has some MD schools so it should be that conference based on geography but it was done at the committee level years ago. I've heard that maybe they didn't want to pull out PA schools from the NCAA Governance regions and one of them is only NY and PA in D3. I can't explain that either but it is what it is. Probably other examples around the country you could question. What it does mean is that TCNJ will host a South Atlantic group of 4 while Messiah and Hopkins to their south will likely host Mid-Atlantic groups. So, a VA school could really travel. Last year Rowan went to Messiah while VA Wesleyan was sent all the way up to TCNJ. This happens when they force conference teams into different first weekend groups. Enjoy the games! http://www.ncaa.org/governance/committees/committee-geographical-regions-divisions-ii-and-iii
UAA- Wash U gets the AQ, will host lots of games and is the favorite to win it all NYU, Emory, Brandeis, Chicago will all get in. Rochester had their chance but 8 non-wins should be too many, even for the UAA. Emory got them in the end and wins out to finish 3rd. Would not want to play them, or really any of these teams, next weekend.
Below is a link to a good article, Women's at-large berth analysis and predictions, from D3soccer.com. http://d3soccer.com/columns/christan-shirk/2018/womens-at-large-analysis-and-predictions As happens every year, there will be deserving teams on the outside looking in due to some of the conference championship results. A few teams that should have won did not and this will allow some conferences to have more teams than they were probably predicted to have had the favorite won. In the Mid-Atlantic Region and in the Landmark Conference Championship, Susquehanna beat Scranton 5-4 in PKs after playing to a 1-1 draw through OT. More than likely only Scranton, from the conference, would have gotten a berth had they won. It is now feasible for Susquehanna and Scranton to go. The Great Lakes Region has a few sides with question marks. The favorite to win the North Coast Athletic Conference, Dension, lost a semi-final match to Wittenberg. Wooster won the NCAC championship so it is now possible that both Wooster and Dension will get a berth. However, I can see Denison being left out. The NCAC typically only has one team getting a berth and Denison, with its lackluster SOS, could be left out. Also in the Great Lakes, Otterbein was the winner of the Ohio Athletic Conference Championship. In the OAC championship game Otterbein beat Ohio Northern, 1-0. ONU was a final 8 side last year. As with the NCAC, the OAC typically only sends one team to the NCAA tournament. In the region, though, if it comes down to Dension or ONU getting selected I could see ONU getting the nod due to having a slightly stronger SOS. I can see this scenario as more likely despite Denison having the #1 ranking in region the past 3 weeks. Staying in the Great Lakes, the Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference had somewhat of an upset winner with Mount St. Joseph beating Hanover, 3-0, in the final. Hanover, despite a #4 ranking in the region, will not dance. The HCAC is not a strong conference and Hanover has a weak SOS. Had Hanover attempted to beef up its out of conference schedule during the season, and perhaps even endured a few more losses, they may have survived not winning the HCAC. Moving on to the Central Region, Illinois Wesleyan beat Wheaton on PKs, in the CCIW championship game. Had Wheaton won the game it was conceivable that IWU would not have gained a berth. The Titans were on the fence after two late season losses to teams that they should not have lost to - Augustana & Carroll. IWU redeemed the loss to Augustana by beating them in the semi-final but a loss to Wheaton still may not have been enough to get them a berth despite having a strong SOS. As it is, the CCIW will get two representatives in the dance with Wheaton and IWU. Also in the Central Region, in the Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association championship game, Adrian beat Hope, 1-0. If Hope had won Adrian would not have received a bid. The MIAA will now get two bids. I'm not well-versed enough to comment on the North & West Regions but at first glance it looks like the 2nd ranked team in the West, Texas-Dallas, could be susceptible to getting left out due to losing to Mary Hardin-Baylor in the semi-finals of the American Southwest Conference tournament. Texas-Dallas only has a .505 SOS.
Good Take - Remember the AQs are gone now. So Hanover and Denison cetainly have a chance. You're comparing them to the other teams left on the board in their regions from around the country. In the S. Atlantic, everyone won out as expected so I think Emory will be the first at-large. Question is will the committee take the NJAC #2 team in Rowan or ODAC #2 team and is that Bridgewater or Va Wesleyan? Don't think it will be both but maybe. Find out soon: https://www.ncaa.com/news/soccer-wo...diii-womens-bracket-be-revealed-monday-130-pm
Bracket: https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/soccer-women/d3/2018 Biggest surprise for me was Rochester getting in - UAA with 6!
AQs are the automatic bids. Once they are 'off the board' the selection committee chooses from the remaining teams to get at-large bids. That's what we've been discussing. So how does every remaining 2nd place team compare around the country that didn't win their AQ? is basically the question. UAA gets 6 teams - that's a surprise that NYU/Rochester both got in from the East region. ODAC in Va gets 3 in, they acted like Bridgewater was the last team selected on the show. Tough in D3 as roster depth and your draw means everything with back to back games. Geography can screw the draw up as well. More than D1 as they are VERY reluctant to moves team beyond the 500 mile limit for flights. Enjoy the games. https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/soccer-women/d3/2018
My DIII Bracket Analysis I calculated: Rank Index Points (RIP) = (UCS Rank + Massey Rank + Herosports/Bennett Rank) divided by 3. UCS is a poll while Massey and Herosports/Bennett are both numerical based on stats. I used the RIP to indicate the relative strength of teams and brackets. I graded each bracket by summing the RIPs for the top five teams in each bracket, regardless of how they were seeded within the bracket. (20 out of the 64 teams) Disclaimer: These are imaginary numbers and no true meaning can be extracted from them. A. The four brackets seem to be as well balanced as I have seen since I started doing this in 2014. 2018: 54, 57, 55, 69 2017: 50, 51, 55, 80 2016: 42, 112, 77, 42 B. Like the last two years, each of the four strongest teams is in a different bracket. This year, in addition, the next four strongest teams are also each in a different bracket. C. For the third year in a row, all four brackets are set up so the two strongest teams in the bracket can’t meet until the Quarter Finals, which is an improvement compared to previous years when strong teams faced-off in the first or second round. ------------Rank Index Points for Top Five Teams in Each Bracket UPPER LEFT-----------53------------UPPER RIGHT------------57 WashU ------------------------1-------------------Williams---------------------3 St. Thomas------------------13-------------------TCNJ------------------------16 Wheaton (IL)---------------13-------------------Brandeis-------------------19 Centre-------------------------9-------------------William Smith-------------11 Chicago----------------------17-------------------Amherst---------------------8 LOWER LEFT-----------55----------LOWER RIGHT-------------69 Middlebury--------------------3---------------Messiah-------------------------5 Swarthmore------------------13---------------Lynchburg--------------------15 Hardin-Simmons------------15---------------Emory--------------------------22 Johns Hopkins-----------------5------------Christopher Newport--------8 Misericordia------------------19---------------Hope---------------------------19 9584
I went to see William Smith vs. Westfield and Tufts vs. Penn State Behrend today. It was 34 degrees with a breeze (not quite a wind, but chilling nonetheless). Sun shone during the first half of the first game, but the sky clouded over for the rest of the day. I got to meet a high school senior from Hawaii who is seriously interested in WS. Talked to her Dad between games for quite a while – they are headed to Niagara Falls before flying home. Good idea IMO, despite the weather. The games today were on the football turf field. WS 4 – Westfield 1: The WS parents think the team has played better since being on the turf during the end of season games. (I imagine there is a strong ‘continuous improvement’ factor involved as well). Last week one of the Moms told me that the sophomores were now willing and able to shoulder more leadership responsibilities, rather that relying on the juniors and seniors for that. The team looked very good against Westfield; they passed the ball smartly and dribbled with confidence in 1 v 1’s. After scoring 4 in the 1st half, WS started mostly subs for the second half and by about 30 minutes to go, there were no starters or even first-off-the-bench subs in the game. One exception was center defender Maialen Martinez (So. San Sebastian, Spain), who had to take over leadership of the back 4 since her outstanding center back partner Elizabeth Moore (Jr., Williamsville, NY) aggravated a knee injury in the Liberty League semifinals – she’ll have an MRI Monday. In the 62nd minute, after I noted the makeup of the WS team, defensive confusion yielded Westfield’s only goal. Things were fully under control for WS the rest of the game. Tufts 2 – Penn St Behrend 0: Tufts totally dominated the first 15 minutes, scoring 2, and kept the ball in Behrend’s half most of the first half. I was very impressed by Tufts front 3: Liz Reed (So. Lynnfield, MA), Tally Clark (Jr. Seattle, WA), and Hannah Isenhart (So. Boulder, CO). They were tall, fast, good on the ball, and played very well with each other. Both Clark and Isenhart are listed as backs on the team web site. By about the 32nd minute none of them were playing up top. I did not stay for the second half because sometimes I know enough to come in out of the cold. Tufts assistant coach Maddie Buckley (William Smith 2013 D3 National Champion and 11th annual John Wooden Citizenship Cup award winner) returned “home” as an opponent for the first time. We’ll see her on the sideline again tomorrow. PS - I also think Messiah goes very deep into the tournament. Tomorrrow they play at RIT on turf and the weather will be much like today - mid 30's and clouds. RIT plays a gritty game, but they don't have enough talent IMO to overcome the Falcons. 10,006
The UAA goes 2-4 in round 1! Shocking that 4 of 6 teams are out in Round 1 and Emory had to beat PSU-Berks in OT. WashU in cruise control but everyone else is out! I don't think it says anything terrible about the conference generally but that you can take NOTHING for granted in the post-season. (Okay and maybe 6 bids was 1 or 2 too many for the UAA this year). Now those kids can get back to curing cancer and designing space ships!
I live streamed Emory vs PSU-Berks. I thought Emory was the slightly better team. The PSU goalie had a few miraculous saves but the Emory forwards were not dominant in any way. Also I did not realize until the game began that PSU has the nation's leading scorer in C Golden who is credited with 38 goals and 9 assists this season on a gaudy 137 shots this season. Emory did an effective job of bottling her up.
I went to see William Smith vs. Tufts today. It was 39 degrees with overcast skies and no breeze. It is amazing what adding 5 degrees and subtracting a stiff breeze will do to make a cold day not so bad. WS 1 – Tufts 0, 2nd OT I heard that Aliceann Wilber told her Herons to go out and have fun. IMO they played their best soccer of the season. I think the 2018 Herons came into their own today; nearly every player had a very good game and they worked well together. Frankly, I didn’t think they would get past Tufts. I felt two Tufts players stood out. All American goalkeeper Emily Bowers (Sr. Needham, MA) didn’t need to make any spectacular saves, however she played her position expertly and pretty much owned the penalty area by coming off her line at the perfect time to knock balls away or scoop up through balls. Defensive midfielder Jenna Troccoli (#13, Jr. Bethesda, MD) intercepted passes and tackled the ball away from Herons the whole game. Her mirror image on the other side of the ball, #13 Sarah Olick-Sutphen (Sr. Manlius, NY) put in the same outstanding work for the Herons. So the #13s often clashed during the game, as did the #8s, Heron forward Sheila McQuillen (So. Natick, MA) and Tufts midfielder Hannah Isenhart (So. Boulder, CO). McQuillen busted her butt the whole game and earned the opportunity to score the winning goal with 2 minutes left in the 2nd OT. The third outstanding player for WS was central defender Maialen Martinez (So. San Sebastian, Spain) who actively quashed attack after attack from Tufts. I mistakenly assumed she was a converted attacking player; however I have found out she was a full time defender in Spain, which means WS should have a solid center for two more years. The next game pits my WS Herons against @cpthomas ’s Amherst Mammoths; it should be a good game. What I’d tell my U12’s: Play hard. Play fair. Have fun. P.S. I just found out the game will be at William Smith; So I will get to see Williams vs. TCNJ and WS vs. Amherst. Cool. 10,269
Ok D3 Folks - Whoever was in love with the UAA schools and was cracking on Centre can now humbly apologize. @C13soccer ?? 5 of 6 UAA schools out the first weekend, 4 in the first round, is definitely a story. Chicago could not beat Grove City who then lost to Centre. I don't know if Centre has enough for Wheaton and def not enough for WashU but we'll see. Hopkins out at home is a bit of a surprise but after that Swarthmore drubbing in their Conf Final, there was some bad mojo brewing at Hopkins. Great Sweet 16 matchups but here are my picks- WashU still the favorite playing at home Hardin-Simmons- long trip and tough group to pick but they will get through Messiah- Will have to beat Lynchburg and then away at CNU but they will Williams - will we see another battle of the Williams? I'd rather pick week to week but if I had to wager, I'd take WashU over Messiah.
I was probably a bigger doubter of Centre. I was going to mention this earlier and in another post of mine, I did say that I would admit if wrong about Centre. Having said that, I'm still not entirely sold and don't believe that Centre will beat Wheaton. Centre was able to advance to the Sweet 16 and should be congratulated for that accomplishment. If you look at the stats of Chicago vs Grove City and Centre vs Grove City, they are remarkably similar in terms of shots and SOG. Chicago had 29 shots with 14 on frame vs Grove City's 6 & 4. Centre had 25 shots and 10 SOG vs 4 & 1 for Grove City. Those 2 extra shots that GC had vs Chicago made all the difference as they put them in. I would have liked to have seen Chicago vs Centre as I think it would have been a better game. I was one those in love with the UAA schools but it is now looking like too many were selected. Quite frankly, I'm surprised. I was really surprised that Chicago lost. I had mentioned earlier that I thought UC was not as strong as last season are missing some key players from that team. I still believe that but I also believe that an overlooked loss from that team was AC Julianne Sitch who went to UIC to take an AC position there. Sitch was with the Maroons for the past three seasons and was instrumental in their success. I'm not attempting to say that Amy Reifert is not a good coach because my opinion of her is that she is better than a good coach. Sitch was a loss, though. The other factor that this tournament is showing is that there seems to be a lot more parity than in past years. That is a good thing and makes it all a little more interesting. It is also good to see school that haven't had a lot of success, or those that were close to having good success, now show that they can have success. As an aside, and for one that follows Chicagoland soccer, I am curious what will now happen with Sitch at UIC now that Brian Rigby has been sacked from the HC job there. Rigby started the UIC women's program, always a monumental task, and while not overly successful, did show some glimmers of hope and was able to be competitive in some matches. Starting a program from scratch is very tough and Rigby is to be commended. Hopefully he will end up in a good spot. Garrett Klassy, the AD at UIC, has started a nationwide search for a HC but I believe that Sitch should at least get some consideration for the position. As a Chicagoland native and one that spent her collegiate career at DePaul, she has good contacts in the area. Perhaps she is a bit too inexperienced for a D1 HC role but she is someone that should be watched in the future.
I'd love to see Amherst and Williams get through to play each other. Maybe not likely, but that would be one great DIII rivalry game.
It does appear in hindsight that the UAA was overrated this season...speaking of historically good programs, Hopkins' second round loss was also interesting in that their season leading scorer R. Jackson did not play and it seems that they missed her. I was impressed with Ithica's effort vs #3 Middlebury. The Ithica strategy appeared to focus on haranguing the Middlebury back line into rushed passes and it worked as Middlebury struggled to settle the ball for their attack...the game went into PK's where Middlebury apparently had a PK specialist goalkeeper who came in cold and promptly blocked three Ithica PKs...quite an impressive feat...kudos to the coaching staff for having such an advanced strategy to deploy...
D3Soccer.com has really good Sectional Previews http://d3soccer.com/ncaatournament/2018/women/2018-womens-sectional-previews Massey has posted game predictions https://www.masseyratings.com/csocw/ncaa-d3/games Percent chance of winning the game (if I have interpreted Massey’s table correctly) are given: At Christopher Newport on Friday Nov 16 Hope 22% at Christopher Newport 64% Lynchburg 35% vs. Messiah 50% At WashU on Friday Nov 16 WI Lacrosse 13% at WashU 75% Centre 42% vs. Wheaton 40% At William Smith on Saturday Nov 17 [It snowed 5” today; Sat. high 40; Sun. high 34 some snow] Amherst 40% at William Smith 39% TCNJ 17% vs. Williams 45% At Middlebury on Saturday Nov 17 Swarthmore 36% at Middlebury 47% Misericordia 39% vs. Hardin-Simmons 46% Each game has some intriguing aspects. Fun! 10,703
Aren't William Smith and Middlebury about to get about a foot of snow?? I hope they have a Plan B and the teams traveling can get there. Even WashU just got a few inches of snow I believe and CNU got tons of rain this week. This seems like it's been maybe the craziest year of weather ever. Hopefully all these games get played in adequate conditions somehow.