€-Moneyball; High and Low Finance Football

Discussion in 'The Netherlands' started by Orange14, Feb 27, 2012.

  1. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Let us hope this loan restriction goes through. This should limit the stockpiling of players by Chelsea and ManCity who appear to be the two major clubs with the most players out on loan. Ajax have four out this season so an eight player limit should have little impact. Of course this also might harm the business plans of clubs such as Vitesse who rely on one year loanees to bolster their roster. I say tough luck; start developing your own players or do a better job of scouting!!!
     
  2. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    Loaned out players:

    Atalanta 55
    Genoa 29
    Inter 27
    Sampdoria 27
    Juve 26

    ...a bunch of other Italian clubs, a Brazilian one, a Greek one and so on... Chelsea have 19 players out on loan, Man City only 12.
     
  3. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    ^^ WOW, who would have thought that Italian clubs would have so many players on loan!!!
     
  4. Uhm, these are the numbers of players over the age of 21, in which case they would fall under the limit of 8 players. The actual number of players on loan out there including the ones under 21 are far bigger. Iirc ManCity has over 40/50 out on loan.
     
  5. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    #1080 Blondo, Sep 15, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
    Looking at the state Dutch football is in do you feel (the bigger) Eredivisie clubs (and their academies) are doing a good job? How come Van Dijk, Holland's most valuable player, wasn't scouted by one of the bigger Eredivisie clubs while he was right under their noses? The guy left for peanuts and had to make a name for himself at Celtic, Southampton and now Liverpool. Depay, Holland's 2nd most valuable player, had outgrown the Eredivisie yet wasn't ready for the PL. Without Man United paying over the odds for him, PSV's academy would have operated at a loss, as they weren't producing much (rather telling for how their academy fared). How much potential has been wasted in Dutch clubs or wasn't even identified in the first place?

    Vitesse's deal with Chelsea is quite advantageous (besides the loanees there are more benefits for Vitesse). Feeder clubs, especially when it's done well, don't exactly have the worst of fates. It stands in stark contrast to the (lack of) cooperation between Ajax and Beerschot for example. That deal was rather short-lived and wasn't mutually beneficial. It's baffling that Ajax cut themselves off from a (potentially long-term) feeder club in a very rich catchment area and no longer have access to a proven talent pipeline. Instead Ajax simply took advantage of a distressed club and gutted them. They showed no remorse when they took away the financial drip, bankrupting the club that in a very short time produced Vermaelen, Vertonghen, Alderweireld, Dembele, Nainggolan, and so on. Despite the Ajax-Beerschot pact Ajax still failed to act on Dembele (moved to AZ instead and went on to become champions of Holland), Wanyama (moved to Celtic and then Spurs), Nainggolan (made his own way to Italy), ... they also ignored Beerschot's scout when he offered to bring in the likes of Hazard, De Bruyne, Lukaku, ... That scout left because of the incompetence at Ajax and at Anderlecht the first graduate he brought through his new youth development program was Lukaku (Anderlecht didn't regret believing in him/investing in his pilot project). La Ling's report, especially the part about how amateurish and inept Ajax's scouting really is, painted a shocking picture.

    TL;DR regarding youth development and scouting, there's plenty of room for improvement, not only at Ajax but in the entire league. Also, Vitesse's deal with Chelsea is preferable to how Ajax dealt with Beerschot or is treating Ajax Cape Town for that matter (Ajax have acted as an absentee landlord and there are rumours of pulling the plug on them now that they've fallen on hard times).
     
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  6. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    #1081 Blondo, Sep 15, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2018
    You cannot but agree that not all young talents have what it takes. Actually only a small percentage will make a name for themselves, of the ones that stayed a bit longer at smaller clubs and the ones that at a young age moved to clubs with top notch academies. Man City's EDS squad brings the total of loaned out players up to 27 and there's plenty of dross in there (in spite of City's massive efforts to unlock as much "potential" as possible). Last year the total was 31, including older players like Joe Hart, Mangala, Diskerud, Brattan, ..., several other (younger) players that won't make it at a top club.

    Italian clubs loan out the kiddies too though @feyenoordsoccerfan ... e.g. Genoa or Sassuolo then have 40+ players out on loan compared to City's 27. So many Italian clubs stockpiling talents, even more than the few "big offenders" in the PL do, doesn't lessen the fact that this sort of nonsense is at the heart of the deterioration of competitive balance in Europe. That clubs in transit leagues, like the Dutch, Portuguese, Belgian ones, keep facilitating this process is also a stain on them. There's plenty of blame to go around (+ before pointing the finger at others...).

    OTOH the concentration of talent isn't necessarily harmful for the best players. It creates a challenging environment, helping their development along. Top quality players tend to come through in classes, in places brimming with talent. For example Atalanta, who top the list of loanees, has been producing their fair share and then some. I'm not a proponent of clubs stockpiling talents, measures to curtail the practice are welcome, yet academies still need to function properly, e.g. offer options to "lightweight" graduates (either at other clubs via loans/transfers or an education outside football), talents to push each other and training conditions to be up to scratch (staff, facilities, etc.), the academy not to incur losses but instead be profitable (the few successes cover the investment of all), ...
     
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  7. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    Two very good posts by @Blondo Correct about Ajax scouting for the most part. The in transfers of senior players has been quite spotty over the last decade and many were panic purchases following the loss of a starter to a bigger club.
     
  8. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel Member+

    Oct 4, 2011
    Club:
    Feyenoord
  9. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    The author singles out Swansea City as a club that can move into the elite. Unfortunately Swansea was relegated last season and now will struggle to move back up to the EPL (this paper was written back in 2015). The paper doesn't fully discuss the importance of television money which is a huge factor for English clubs. It also would have been nice had the author looked at the factors behind the downfall of club football in Italy. It wasn't all that long ago when AC Milan were the top club team in Europe; now they have trouble both domestically and in Europe.
     
  10. To be fair the paper discusses/analyses factors in how certain clubs became super clubs. If certain clubs fall within the parameters of it, it doesnot mean they will be/become one. Management is a crucial part in the whole process. Just think about what I wrote about the management of Feyenoord over the last three decades.
     
  11. Frysk Bloed

    Frysk Bloed Member

    Sep 6, 2014
    Club:
    Liverpool FC


    I can't seem to find a source for this; is it true?
     
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  12. Orange14

    Orange14 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 27, 2007
    Bethesda, MD
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    Netherlands
    ^^ Feyenoord have earnings?????????:D:eek:
     
  13. We're very happy handing out PSV and Ajax their earnings:ROFLMAO:
     
    aveslacker repped this.
  14. Yup, it is in the Eredivisie thread.
     
  15. Blondo

    Blondo Member+

    Sep 21, 2013
    It's quid quo pro and is part of a larger package of measures, i.e. the "veranderagenda" (negotiations about it have failed so far). What's asked in return is to agree to a copy of the Belgian formula:

    - downsizing the Eredivisie to 16 clubs
    - play-offs (a mini-league in which the top 6 sides decide the title and spots for European competitions)
    - tougher relegation
    - end of plastic pitches (in 2021)
    ...

    However what's desperately needed to improve the Eredivisie as a whole is the distribution of TV revenue that's far less inequitable than the current arrangement, as is the case in Western Europe (except Holland; see my quote below). It isn't only Belgium, Germany, France, etc. but even some Southern Europeans have a more equitable distribution (over there the new deals, after 2016, are increasingly more equitable as well). Yet the bigger clubs in Holland want to keep gouging the smaller ones. They prefer a rising tide that only lifts the yachts, while others run aground.

    PS like clockwork the BeNe League, the stick that the greedy Eredivisie clubs like to show the smaller clubs whenever they ask for a more equitable distribution, pops up again: https://inews.co.uk/sport/football/...tball-superleague-cross-border-uefa-proposal/

    PPS from Ajax, Van Der Sar IIRC, I even heard the suggestion of replacing collective selling with individual deals, cfr. Portugal, each Eredivisie club negotiating their own TV deal. Most likely an empty threat because surely things wouldn't "go more south". In Italy and Spain they moved away from individual deals yet Holland would go the other way. That would be very shameful.

    PPPS does a club like Ajax even know where to put all their cash? I read articles that they can offer massive fees/contracts but players decline because of the state the Eredivisie is in. Smaller Eredivisie clubs can't offer much because they simply lack the funds due to the inequitable distribution. I bet they'd like to attract better quality players, they could do with more resources to develop their own or instead of selling their most promising ones for peanuts, to hold onto them a bit longer. I doubt the greedy top wants a more competitive Eredivisie, that offers more resistance to the players/promising talents. God forbid they'd have to spend more to win the title (there's less of an incentive to invest in the squad when fewer clubs can challenge) or pay more than peanuts for players from smaller clubs (that can't decline because they need the income to keep their heads above water or can't offer their players competitive deals).
     
  16. Dutch skaters have set a legal precedence that nullifies UEFA and FIFA ban on and sanctions for participating in unapproved events.
    It all began with a lawsuit brought against the International Skating Union (ISU) by two Dutch speed-skaters, Mark Tuitert and Niels Kerstholt (https://www.politico.eu/article/margrethe-vestager-orders-skating-union-to-change-rules/). In 2014, the two had wanted to take part in a race in Dubai organized by a South Korean firm called Icederby. The prize money at stake was massive compared to their normal winnings from ISU-sponsored events: a whopping $130,000 versus a measly €2,000 at ISU events.

    As the governing body of speed-skating, however, ISU forbade the skaters to take part in the event, threatening them with potentially lifelong bans.

    Now the EU Commission has ruled in favor of the plaintiffs: the court decided that prohibiting skaters from participating in outside competitions represents an abuse of the ISU’s market dominance. The EU Competition Commissioner, Margrethe Vestager, ordered the ISU to abolish its “disproportionately punitive” sanctions for athletes who participate in non-ISU competitions.

    Vestager concluded that threatening suspensions and bans served “to protect [ISU’s] own commercial interests and prevent others from setting up their own events.” The change should “open up new opportunities for athletes and competing organisers, to the benefit of all ice skating fans.”
     
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  17. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/s...s-two-new-global-tournaments-FIFA-agenda.html
    Show down time between FIFA and UEFA.

    UEFA anger at plans for two new global tournaments with 'mini World Cup' and extended Club World Cup set to be discussed by FIFA
    • FIFA president Gianni Infantino has proposed two major changes to calendar
    • He has essentially planned mini World Cup featuring eight teams every two years
    • Club World Cup would also be changed and expanded from seven teams to 24
    • It is unclear whether plans will be voted on, but they will be discussed this week
    By Riath Al-Samarrai for the Daily Mail

    Published: 11:56 BST, 23 October 2018 | Updated: 08:57 BST, 24 October 2018
    A major row is brewing between FIFA and UEFA this week amid plans from football's global governing body to introduce a revamped Club World Cup that could threaten the Champions League.

    It was reported on Tuesday that FIFA president Gianni Infantino has submitted a proposal for a 24-club competition to run each season, replacing the current seven-team affair that has struggled to gain credibility since its inception in 2000.

    FIFA and UEFA did not comment on Tuesday, with the idea expected to be prominent on the agenda at FIFA's council meeting in Rwanda on Thursday and Friday.
     
  18. http://www.spiegel.de/international...-for-elite-league-of-top-clubs-a-1236447.html
    Dirty Deals Documents Show Secret Plans for Elite League of Top Clubs
    A coalition that includes FC Bayern Munich spent months working on plans to create a private league of elite teams behind the backs of associations and other teams. By DER SPIEGEL Staff

    [​IMG]
    REUTERS/ New Pool/ Benedikt Rugar/ DER SPIEGEL
    Bayern Munich CEO Karl-Heinz Rummenigge


    November 02, 2018 06:01 PM
    The email that could lead to the greatest revolution in the history of European football begins with a completely harmless sentence: "Hi Romano, I would have another interesting issue where we would like to mandate you." The message was sent by Michael Gerlinger on Feb. 3, 2016. Its recipient: the international law firm Cleary Gottlieb.

    Gerlinger, 45, heads up the legal department at FC Bayern Munich and is more or less the team's behind-the-scenes brain. He rarely appears in public, but team CEO Karl-Heinz Rummenigge hasn't made an important decision without him in over a decade.

    Gerlinger's mail is explosive. It concerned nothing less than the future of European football. In it, Gerlinger instructed the lawyers to examine whether FC Bayern Munich could withdraw from the German league, the Bundesliga, and whether the team would have to allow its players to play for the national team in the future.

    Read more
    The Bundesliga without Bayern Munich? The national team without Mats Hummels, Joshua Kimmich or Manuel Neuer? It seems almost unimaginable.

    But in 2016, anything seemed possible. That year marked something of a turning point in the realm of top-level, international football. FIFA, the international football federation, seemed leaderless and aimless after a wave of raids and arrests. The European umbrella association UEFA also saw its president Michel Platini ousted from office because of a multimillion-euro payment by former FIFA boss Joseph Blatter. At the same time, the next TV rights for the Champions League and Europa League were soon to be awarded. Revenues for the two competitions almost tripled between 2007 and 2017 and stood at more than 2.2 billion euros by the latter.

    The battle that erupted after Gerlinger's mail for all the European tournament money and for the power in elite-level football could almost have been written by a scriptwriter for "House of Cards." All the sleights of hand, the relentlessness and the backroom conversations can be reconstructed with the help of a data set that the whistleblower platform Football Leaks has made available to DER SPIEGEL and its partners in the international research network European Investigative Collaborations (EIC).

    The documents provide a sense for who the actual decision-makers in the football business are. They lay bare just how ruthlessly and shamelessly these individuals amass their power in order to pursue their greed for even more money. They also reveal why national -- and, more recently, international -- competitions have become so predictable, why leagues from the Champions League, to the Bundesliga on down to Italy's Serie A are monotonously won by the same teams over and over again.

    Advertisement
    That is another reason why football in 2016 faced the challenge of having to completely reposition itself. Not to make things more appealing and exciting for fans, but to continue to produce the lavish profit margins the industry has become used to in recent decades.

    To achieve that goal, some clubs have apparently even been willing to betray the traditional cooperation between the clubs and the national leagues, one which has provided the framework for European football for decades. Seven of the world's top clubs have secretly joined forces, all apparently with a single idea in mind: Boredom spells the death of any show, and the only way to combat boredom is to put on an even bigger, glitzier show, the greatest football show on earth. The idea is the creation of a Super League, an elite league of top-level competition reserved exclusively for the top names in European club football. Every game is a top game. That is the secret society's plan.

    Today, in November 2018, the Super League idea appears to have fresh impetus: According to the draft of a confidential term sheet that Real Madrid received just a few days ago from a consulting firm, 16 top clubs are to sign a document to establish such a league. According to the document, the league would begin operating in the 2021 season. One of the 16 clubs named in the document is FC Bayern Munich.
     
  19. The Temptation

    Charlie Stillitano has a long resume. When the United States professional soccer league was founded in the 1990s, he signed on as the first general manager of the New York/New Jersey Metro Stars. Later, he demonstrated a nose for big deals -- and has focused his attentions since then on international matches. In 2014, Stillitano organized a match between Manchester United and Real Madrid at Michigan Stadium, an event attended by 109,318 fans -- a record for a soccer game in the U.S. to this day.

    A heavyset bald man with horn-rimmed glasses and stubble, Stillitano can often be found in the VIP lounges belonging to Europe's most powerful clubs. José Mourinho, the star trainer at Manchester United, almost reverently refers to Stillitano as "Mr. Zero Mistakes."

    According to the Football Leaks documents, Stillitano sent an email to two Real Madrid executives on Dec. 17, 2015: General Director José Ángel Sánchez and the team's head of marketing. He wrote that the current draft for the Super League was attached: "Would it be possible to use your laptops to present this in the meeting this morning? Thanks, Charlie."

    [​IMG]
    Getty Images/ Benedikt Rugar/ DER SPIEGEL
    Charlie Stillitano, co-founder and chairman of Relevent Sports

    Stillitano's draft, marked "strictly private and confidential," offered the following to the Real Madrid executives:

    • The 17 teams with the strongest TV presences from England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France would compete permanently in a European league.
    • The Bundesliga clubs participating in the league would include Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Schalke 04.
    • The 18th participant would be a team from Portugal, Russia, the Netherlands or Turkey.
    • The league would run for 34 weeks, with matches on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Saturdays. There would be a knockout round at the end of the season.
    The debate about the introduction of a Super League has been ongoing for more than 30 years and there have been repeated attempts to completely reform European football and create a league for the best of the best. Secret projects with abstruse names like "Gandalf" were devised, and the top chieftains of football, such as then-AC Milan patron Silvio Berlusconi and later Real Madrid President Florentino Pérez, were completely convinced of the idea of an elite league.

    But none of the projects came even close to Stillitano's idea. In his presentation, he calculated that each of the top clubs could achieve annual revenues of "500 million euro plus." By way of comparison, Real Madrid, the 2016 Champions League winner, received around 80 million euros from UEFA.

    Calculated Disinformation

    Several months later, in August 2016, Karl-Heinz Rummenigge made a sensitive statement at a meeting of the European Club Association (ECA). By that time, he had been chairman of the ECA -- the world's largest club alliance, representing the interests of more than 220 teams -- for eight years. According to the minutes of one meeting, Rummenigge said that "the big clubs received big offers to create a super league and that UEFA then called for a meeting with representatives of some of these big clubs a couple of weeks ago with a proposal to keep European club football united."

    The message was clear: Unless the big clubs got more money and power from UEFA, they would start their own league.For smaller and midsized clubs, whose interests the ECA is also supposed to protect, such a scenario would be a disaster. UEFA distributes TV revenues to teams playing in the Europa League and Champions League according to a revenue-sharing formula ensuring that smaller teams also get a cut. But if the top clubs were to turn their backs on the UEFA competitions, the other clubs would lose out on millions in revenues. For some of the clubs, such a rearrangement could threaten their very existence.

    In 2016, the big clubs found themselves in an excellent position to push through almost all their demands. But how could they have come so far?

    The Football Leaks documents clearly show that Rummenigge's negotiating strategy hinged on one tool in particular: calculated disinformation. He only told the respective groups he was speaking to exactly as much as necessary to prevent a backlash. The ECA in particular, along with the league associations, were taken by surprise by the elite clubs' reform plans.
     

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