australia will definitely have a tough time in honduras, but i think they will make up for it in australia. honduras managed to draw costa rica at home, beat T&T, beat mexico (but mexico was already qualified), and lost to panama at home. away, they lost 6-0 to USA, and 3-0 to mexico, drew costa rica, drew panama, and beat T&T. in the previous round they lost to canada in canada, but they managed to draw mexico in mexico. they are an inconsistent team. i predict 60/40 for australia.
Some things have been said about how Honduras has the edge because of their home advantage. I would just like to point out that the last time Australia lost a live world cup qualifier at home was in May 1981 against New Zealand. We lost a dead rubber to China 1-0 (we had already won the group) in June 2008 but on that day we elected to play our Olympic team. This includes games against opposition from all parts of the world with the exception of CAF. We may not have it easy in Honduras and I expect a tough series, but don't think playing us at home, even with our current squad, will be easy. I can't think of a nation with a better home record than us in world cup qualification.
First match is in Honduras, which means that their players (most of which play in the US or at home), will not have to make a very long trip for the first match, while for Australian players, it will be a long journey for the first match, and right after it , another long trip home, with only one week to get recovered, till the next match. While Honduras's players will be making their only long trip for the second match. Jet lag, will definitively affect more the australians, than what it will affect the honduran's. (same Issue for Peru, btw, but in their case they shouldn't have problems getting a positive result away for the first match)
What you say is true, but I would still rather play the home leg last. As most of our squad don't play their club football in Australia they would need to take a long trip home anyway before heading off to Honduras if the games were reversed.
and won both in Australia. We have yet to lose a home / away playoff match in Australia going back to the 1970 world cup when we drew in Sydney with Israel, and we have had a few over the years (not all of them were for qualification as a lot of them were merely to progress to the next stage). Maybe this will be the first time. Its our away record in these type of matches that has generally been below par. We even lost once to Fiji. Seems like both teams have a strong home record so it will be interesting to see how we both handle the away games. I'm looking forward to it.
Sure, having an urgent need to win sometimes helps. What I don't agree with is putting an "*" next to Honduras' win over Mexico just because Mexico had already qualified. Using that logic we should put an "*" next to every match involving Mexico this year, because we knew (and they knew) that they were going to qualify since March of this year! As for Peru x NZ its hard not to think what happened to NZ 4 years ago. I mean, what was it... 9-3? lol Peru isn't going to score 9 goals but at the same time they're not that much weaker than that Mexico team, if at all.
Both FIFA and ELO think Australia is better. The ELO rating gap gives Australia a 63% at qualifying. Giving 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw regardless of whether points or aggregate goals mattered, Australia has 1.45 points per game this year with an average opponents' ELO rating of 1,702, and Honduras has 1.38 points per game with an average opponents' ELO rating of 1,588.
It's going to be an interesting playoff for sure. Interesting, which does not necessarily mean of high quality. You were responding to a comment about atmosphere in San Pedro Sula, in terms of away matches Australia did not overcome Montevideo's atmosphere.
I'm glad NZ is at home in the first-leg (I hadn't realized the order of the matches had already been determined). They should be able to keep the scoreline interesting heading back to Lima. If it was the other way around, you'd fear things might no longer be up for grabs heading to the second-leg.
It was our worst game in a long time, that's true. But talk about timing. We knew for months that a "final" in Lisbon was likely. You simply have to do better in such a decider. We came out completely flat - especially in the second half. I am now genuinely worried about the playoffs. It was an easy group. Agreed. Accentuated by the fact that Hungary didn't show up to play after a good Euros tournament. I am personally very much looking forward to the UEFA Nations League. We need to play quality opposition in meaningful matches on a more frequent basis.
The Honduran side cannot be underestimated. Australia rode a (relative) high for a decade now but are clearly on the decline. They'll have to weather some extremely rough and tumble play in Honduras, both off and on the pitch. I would mildly favor Honduras going through given the circumstances. With the US kindly stepping out of the way, if the above happens it'd be the first time there were three Central American teams at any major tournament outside of the Gold Cup.
If Switzerland would play lots more friendly matches, they would solve that issue, right away. Only problem is that their ranking would get highly affected, with it. Making it lots more dificult to get seeded, after. Unfortunately, you can't have it both ways, and one goes with the other
I understand being disappointed ofcourse, but one bad game does not make a team. Switzerland has been impressive for a couple years now and all that isn't erased, and looking into it to deeply isn't necessary as it can probably be chalked down as nothing more than an off night against a determined team. Personally I give the Swiss a 85% to 15% chance against Northern Ireland, about 65% to 35% against Greece, 60% to 40% against Ireland and 55% to 45% against Sweden.
Falling apart and losing 5-0 you would be right. But losing 1-0 away IS entirely overcoming the atmosphere enough. It's not a d*ck waving contest, it's a two legged tie. J Only if you win at home though
Losing is not overcoming anything. Australia made up for the loss at home in one of the ties, that's all.
I think Pinto will love for it to just go to penalties. Defensive, low scoring matches in both Australia and Honduras will be what I expect. Coin flip to me really. I think Peru will slaughter New Zealand in both matches unless they show up drunk, high or just disoriented in any way..
Why should they ? Most of the times they win by only 1 or 2 goals, and hardly ever scores more than 2 goals in any given match. Their biggest asset during the past qualifiers is that they almost never win by more than 1 goal, together with the fact that most of the times they don't lose by more than 1 goal. They've become into a very regular team, in this aspect. Even during the Copa America Centenario, they achieved same type of results, where even in their match against Haiti (whom is comparable to New Zeland in football level), finished in a 1 - 0 victory, which was very hard for them (as Haiti also missed chances that could've had them take the lead instead), getting their only goal, in the last third of the match. I do see them as favourites to win the playoff against New Zeland, the same as I believe they have it all in them to perfectly win both matches, but both matches will finish in tight results, and only if Peru fvcks-up, it may go to a penalty kick definition, in which case anyone of both can win.