If there are 10 draws and 62 win/loss games, the conference would finish equal if the West won 35 and lost 27. In that case the West would have 115 points, the East would have 91 points, and the West will have gotten 55.8% of the remaining points. The reason this is different from what I underlined is that your 56.5% was neglecting that fact that wins and losses must be whole numbers. If you take 56.5% and multiply by the 206 points that East vs. West games would have if 10 of them are draws, you get 116.39. That's 117 when rounded up to the nearest whole number, but if 10 out of 72 East vs. West games are draws, it's impossible for the West to get exactly 117 points against the East. I rounded up because the if the West needs at least 116.39 points, 116 isn't enough. To provide a simple example, let's say Team X is done playing and has 1 more point and the tiebreaker over Team Y, who has 1 game left. Team Y needs a win to pass Team X. Team Y could pass Team X by getting 2 more points, but that's impossible to get from 1 game, so everybody will say "Team Y needs a win" rather than "Team Y needs at least 2 points." If there are 23 East vs. West draws, the West would need 9 more wins than the East to finish ahead of the East, with it being impossible to have the East and West have the same amount of points. In that case there would be 29 wins for the West and 20 for the East. The West would need to get 57.0% of the remaining points.
Week 13 results: CHI 2-1 FCD VAN 0-1 DCU MIN 1-0 ORL RSL 1-0 PHI This week is split with 2 wins each way. The West is now 15-16-23 overall. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. EAST TFC 4-2-0 CHI 4-1-0 NER 3-3-2 ATL 3-2-0 ORL 2-2-2 PHI 2-2-2 DCU 1-1-0 NYC 1-1-1 MTL 1-1-3 NYR 1-1-4 CLB 1-0-1 WEST HOU 3-0-4 LAG 2-2-1 RSL 2-2-3 SKC 1-3-0 SEA 1-3-2 SJE 1-2-1 POR 1-2-2 FCD 1-1-1 VAN 1-1-2 MIN 1-0-3 COR 1-0-4 Week 14 fixtures: CLB v. SEA VAN v. ATL DCU v. LAG COR v. CLB
My (late) turn. 2017ATLCHICLBDCUMNTNERNYCNYRORLPHITRNCOLFCDHOULAGMINPORRSLSEASJQSPKVAN ATL4:1 CHI3:02:12:04:1 CLB3:2 DCU0:0 MNT4:12:21:2 NER2:05:24:00:0 NYC2:1 NYR1:01:30:0 ORL2:02:12:2 PHI2:12:01:3 TRN2:03:20:0 COL1:0 FCD2:11:1 HOU3:14:14:0 LAG2:22:00:0 MIN1:61:0 POR1:11:1 RSL1:32:11:00:0 SEA0:03:33:10:1 SJQ1:01:1 SPK2:0 VAN0:10:00:2 And then the other two: 2017HOMEHOMEHOMEAWAYAWAYAWAYTOTSTOTSTOTS 2017WINS TIESLOSSWINS TIESLOSSG.S.G.A.G.D. EAST18.006.003.005.0010.0012.0083.0062.0021.00 WEST12.0010.005.003.006.0018.0062.0083.00-21.00 ATLU1.000.000.002.002.000.0014.004.0010.00 CHIC4.000.000.000.001.000.0013.004.009.00 CLBS1.000.000.000.000.001.004.005.00-1.00 DCUD0.001.000.001.000.000.001.000.001.00 MONT1.001.001.000.000.002.007.008.00-1.00 NERV3.001.000.000.002.002.0016.009.007.00 NYFC1.000.000.000.001.003.006.0011.00-5.00 NYRB1.001.001.000.000.001.002.005.00-3.00 ORLD2.001.000.000.001.002.007.009.00-2.00 PHIL2.000.001.000.002.001.005.005.000.00 TORN2.001.000.002.001.000.008.002.006.00 COLO1.000.000.000.000.004.002.008.00-6.00 FCDS1.001.000.000.000.001.004.004.000.00 HOUS3.000.000.000.000.004.0012.0012.000.00 LAGA1.002.000.001.000.001.008.005.003.00 MINN1.000.001.000.000.002.006.0014.00-8.00 PORT0.002.000.001.000.002.008.0010.00-2.00 RSLK2.001.001.000.001.002.004.0010.00-6.00 SEAT1.002.001.000.001.001.009.0011.00-2.00 SJEQ1.001.000.000.001.001.003.003.000.00 SPKC1.000.000.000.003.000.004.002.002.00 VANC0.001.002.001.000.000.002.004.00-2.00 2017TOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSPTSA 2017TGP.PTS.GPG.PPG.GAPGGLFT2016 EAST54.0085.001.541.571.1568.00-41.00 WEST54.0061.001.151.131.5468.00-83.00 ATLU5.0011.002.802.200.807.000.00 CHIC5.0013.002.602.600.806.002.00 CLBS2.003.002.001.502.509.00-8.00 DCUD2.004.000.502.000.009.00-9.00 MONT5.004.001.400.801.606.00-12.00 NERV8.0012.002.001.501.123.00-4.00 NYFC5.004.001.200.802.206.00-16.00 NYRB4.004.000.501.001.257.00-10.00 ORLD6.008.001.171.331.505.000.00 PHIL6.008.000.831.330.835.002.00 TORN6.0014.001.332.330.335.003.00 COLO5.003.000.400.601.606.00-11.00 FCDS3.004.001.331.331.338.00-16.00 HOUS7.009.001.711.291.714.002.00 LAGA5.008.001.601.601.006.00-7.00 MINN4.003.001.500.753.508.000.00 PORT5.005.001.601.002.006.00-8.00 RSLK7.008.000.571.141.434.00-8.00 SEAT6.006.001.501.001.835.00-13.00 SJEQ4.005.000.751.250.757.00-6.00 SPKC4.006.001.001.500.507.00-10.00 VANC4.004.000.501.001.007.00-9.00 With four more games gone, the West is down by 24 points and 21 goals. Of the remaining 68 games, there are a maximum of 204 points. To tie, the West needs 114 of them, or 55.9%. Obviously, draws will occur, meaning this is the best-case scenario. Addtionally, the West will have to outscore the East by 0.31 more goals/game in the remaining 68 matches.
Week 14 results: CLB 3-0 SEA VAN 3-1 ATL DCU 0-0 LAG COR 2-1 CLB The West wins a week with 2 wins and a draw against just one loss. The West is now 17-17-24 overall. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. EAST TFC 4-2-0 CHI 4-1-0 NER 3-3-2 ATL 3-2-1 ORL 2-2-2 PHI 2-2-2 CLB 2-0-2 DCU 1-2-0 NYC 1-1-1 MTL 1-1-3 NYR 1-1-4 WEST HOU 3-0-4 LAG 2-3-1 RSL 2-2-3 VAN 2-1-2 SKC 1-3-0 SEA 1-3-3 SJE 1-2-1 POR 1-2-2 FCD 1-1-1 MIN 1-0-3 COR 2-0-4 Week 15 fixtures: SKC v. MTL
The West stole two points this week, making things a big easier for them. Nevertheless, they need 56.3% of the remaining points to tie, and are still 21 goals down with four fewer games. They're not out, and they can get some big away points from DC, ATL, NYC, and CLB (not that these teams are bad, just that there are a few remaining games left for each), but they also have to defend lots of home games where points can be dropped. As has been pointed out, each Western home game tie is another gong in the death knell. 2017ATLCHICLBDCUMNTNERNYCNYRORLPHITRNCOLFCDHOULAGMINPORRSLSEASJQSPKVAN ATL4:1 CHI3:02:12:04:1 CLB3:23:0 DCU0:00:0 MNT4:12:21:2 NER2:05:24:00:0 NYC2:1 NYR1:01:30:0 ORL2:02:12:2 PHI2:12:01:3 TRN2:03:20:0 COL2:11:0 FCD2:11:1 HOU3:14:14:0 LAG2:22:00:0 MIN1:61:0 POR1:11:1 RSL1:32:11:00:0 SEA0:03:33:10:1 SJQ1:01:1 SPK2:0 VAN3:10:10:00:2 2017HOMEHOMEHOMEAWAYAWAYAWAYTOTSTOTSTOTS 2017WINS TIESLOSSWINS TIESLOSSG.S.G.A.G.D. EAST19.007.003.005.0010.0014.0088.0067.0021.00 WEST14.0010.005.003.007.0019.0067.0088.00-21.00 ATLU1.000.000.002.002.001.0015.007.008.00 CHIC4.000.000.000.001.000.0013.004.009.00 CLBS2.000.000.000.000.002.008.007.001.00 DCUD0.002.000.001.000.000.001.000.001.00 MONT1.001.001.000.000.002.007.008.00-1.00 NERV3.001.000.000.002.002.0016.009.007.00 NYFC1.000.000.000.001.003.006.0011.00-5.00 NYRB1.001.001.000.000.001.002.005.00-3.00 ORLD2.001.000.000.001.002.007.009.00-2.00 PHIL2.000.001.000.002.001.005.005.000.00 TORN2.001.000.002.001.000.008.002.006.00 COLO2.000.000.000.000.004.004.009.00-5.00 FCDS1.001.000.000.000.001.004.004.000.00 HOUS3.000.000.000.000.004.0012.0012.000.00 LAGA1.002.000.001.001.001.008.005.003.00 MINN1.000.001.000.000.002.006.0014.00-8.00 PORT0.002.000.001.000.002.008.0010.00-2.00 RSLK2.001.001.000.001.002.004.0010.00-6.00 SEAT1.002.001.000.001.002.009.0014.00-5.00 SJEQ1.001.000.000.001.001.003.003.000.00 SPKC1.000.000.000.003.000.004.002.002.00 VANC1.001.002.001.000.000.005.005.000.00 2017TOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSPTSA 2017TGP.PTS.GPG.PPG.GAPGGLFT2016 EAST58.0089.001.521.531.1664.00-37.00 WEST58.0068.001.161.171.5264.00-76.00 ATLU6.0011.002.501.831.176.000.00 CHIC5.0013.002.602.600.806.002.00 CLBS4.006.002.001.501.757.00-5.00 DCUD3.005.000.331.670.008.00-8.00 MONT5.004.001.400.801.606.00-12.00 NERV8.0012.002.001.501.123.00-4.00 NYFC5.004.001.200.802.206.00-16.00 NYRB4.004.000.501.001.257.00-10.00 ORLD6.008.001.171.331.505.000.00 PHIL6.008.000.831.330.835.002.00 TORN6.0014.001.332.330.335.003.00 COLO6.006.000.671.001.505.00-8.00 FCDS3.004.001.331.331.338.00-16.00 HOUS7.009.001.711.291.714.002.00 LAGA6.009.001.331.500.835.00-6.00 MINN4.003.001.500.753.508.000.00 PORT5.005.001.601.002.006.00-8.00 RSLK7.008.000.571.141.434.00-8.00 SEAT7.006.001.290.862.004.00-13.00 SJEQ4.005.000.751.250.757.00-6.00 SPKC4.006.001.001.500.507.00-10.00 VANC5.007.001.001.401.006.00-6.00
Week 15 results: SKC 1-1 MTL The only game this week gives each conference a tie. The West is now 17-18-24 overall. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. EAST TFC 4-2-0 CHI 4-1-0 NER 3-3-2 ATL 3-2-1 ORL 2-2-2 PHI 2-2-2 CLB 2-0-2 DCU 1-2-0 MTL 1-2-3 NYC 1-1-1 NYR 1-1-4 WEST HOU 3-0-4 LAG 2-3-1 RSL 2-2-3 VAN 2-1-2 SKC 1-4-0 SEA 1-3-3 SJE 1-2-1 POR 1-2-2 FCD 1-1-1 MIN 1-0-3 COR 2-0-4 Week 16 fixtures: NYC v. SEA
2017ATLCHICLBDCUMNTNERNYCNYRORLPHITRNCOLFCDHOULAGMINPORRSLSEASJQSPKVAN ATL4:1 CHI3:02:12:04:1 CLB3:23:0 DCU0:00:0 MNT4:12:21:2 NER2:05:24:00:0 NYC2:1 NYR1:01:30:0 ORL2:02:12:2 PHI2:12:01:3 TRN2:03:20:0 COL2:11:0 FCD2:11:1 HOU3:14:14:0 LAG2:22:00:0 MIN1:61:0 POR1:11:1 RSL1:32:11:00:0 SEA0:03:33:10:1 SJQ1:01:1 SPK1:12:0 VAN3:10:10:00:2 2017HOMEHOMEHOMEAWAYAWAYAWAYTOTSTOTSTOTS 2017WINS TIESLOSSWINS TIESLOSSG.S.G.A.G.D. EAST19.007.003.005.0011.0014.0089.0068.0021.00 WEST14.0011.005.003.007.0019.0068.0089.00-21.00 ATLU1.000.000.002.002.001.0015.007.008.00 CHIC4.000.000.000.001.000.0013.004.009.00 CLBS2.000.000.000.000.002.008.007.001.00 DCUD0.002.000.001.000.000.001.000.001.00 MONT1.001.001.000.001.002.008.009.00-1.00 NERV3.001.000.000.002.002.0016.009.007.00 NYFC1.000.000.000.001.003.006.0011.00-5.00 NYRB1.001.001.000.000.001.002.005.00-3.00 ORLD2.001.000.000.001.002.007.009.00-2.00 PHIL2.000.001.000.002.001.005.005.000.00 TORN2.001.000.002.001.000.008.002.006.00 COLO2.000.000.000.000.004.004.009.00-5.00 FCDS1.001.000.000.000.001.004.004.000.00 HOUS3.000.000.000.000.004.0012.0012.000.00 LAGA1.002.000.001.001.001.008.005.003.00 MINN1.000.001.000.000.002.006.0014.00-8.00 PORT0.002.000.001.000.002.008.0010.00-2.00 RSLK2.001.001.000.001.002.004.0010.00-6.00 SEAT1.002.001.000.001.002.009.0014.00-5.00 SJEQ1.001.000.000.001.001.003.003.000.00 SPKC1.001.000.000.003.000.005.003.002.00 VANC1.001.002.001.000.000.005.005.000.00 2017TOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSPTSA 2017TGP.PTS.GPG.PPG.GAPGGLFT2016 EAST59.0090.001.511.531.1563.00-36.00 WEST59.0069.001.151.171.5163.00-75.00 ATLU6.0011.002.501.831.176.000.00 CHIC5.0013.002.602.600.806.002.00 CLBS4.006.002.001.501.757.00-5.00 DCUD3.005.000.331.670.008.00-8.00 MONT6.005.001.330.831.505.00-11.00 NERV8.0012.002.001.501.123.00-4.00 NYFC5.004.001.200.802.206.00-16.00 NYRB4.004.000.501.001.257.00-10.00 ORLD6.008.001.171.331.505.000.00 PHIL6.008.000.831.330.835.002.00 TORN6.0014.001.332.330.335.003.00 COLO6.006.000.671.001.505.00-8.00 FCDS3.004.001.331.331.338.00-16.00 HOUS7.009.001.711.291.714.002.00 LAGA6.009.001.331.500.835.00-6.00 MINN4.003.001.500.753.508.000.00 PORT5.005.001.601.002.006.00-8.00 RSLK7.008.000.571.141.434.00-8.00 SEAT7.006.001.290.862.004.00-13.00 SJEQ4.005.000.751.250.757.00-6.00 SPKC5.007.001.001.400.606.00-9.00 VANC5.007.001.001.401.006.00-6.00 The tie means that the West needs to start winning. Sorry for the delay.
Week 16 results: NYC 2-1 SEA The East wins the week. The West is now 17-18-25 overall. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. EAST TFC 4-2-0 CHI 4-1-0 NER 3-3-2 ATL 3-2-1 ORL 2-2-2 PHI 2-2-2 NYC 2-1-1 CLB 2-0-2 DCU 1-2-0 MTL 1-2-3 NYR 1-1-4 WEST HOU 3-0-4 LAG 2-3-1 RSL 2-2-3 VAN 2-1-2 COR 2-0-4 SKC 1-4-0 SEA 1-3-4 SJE 1-2-1 POR 1-2-2 FCD 1-1-1 MIN 1-0-3 Week 17 fixtures: SEA v. ORL ATL v. COR
Not gonna throw up the tables for one more game, but with a lloss the West move closer to losing the trophy.
Undoubtedly, but they did inch towards losing it this week. Just not enough to make much of a difference. If anything, I think the second half of the season is going to be huge given how many away points can be stolen or home wins racked up.
Week 17 results: SEA 1-1 ORL ATL 1-0 COR The East wins another week. The West is now 17-19-26 overall. We have just went past the half-way point of the interconference schedule. Only 60 games left. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. EAST TFC 4-2-0 ATL 4-2-1 CHI 4-1-0 NER 3-3-2 ORL 2-3-2 PHI 2-2-2 NYC 2-1-1 CLB 2-0-2 DCU 1-2-0 MTL 1-2-3 NYR 1-1-4 WEST HOU 3-0-4 LAG 2-3-1 RSL 2-2-3 VAN 2-1-2 SKC 1-4-0 SEA 1-4-4 COR 2-0-5 SJE 1-2-1 POR 1-2-2 FCD 1-1-1 MIN 1-0-3 Week 18 fixtures: NYC v. MIN RSL v. ORL FCD v. TFC CHI v. VAN
Week 18 results: NYC 3-1 MIN RSL 0-1 ORL FCD 3-1 TFC CHI 4-0 VAN The East wins again with 3 wins and only 1 loss. The West is now 18-19-29 overall. Standings are W-T-L. Teams are ranked by Points Earned. EAST CHI 5-1-0 TFC 4-2-1 ATL 4-2-1 NER 3-3-2 ORL 3-3-2 NYC 3-1-1 PHI 2-2-2 CLB 2-0-2 DCU 1-2-0 MTL 1-2-3 NYR 1-1-4 WEST HOU 3-0-4 LAG 2-3-1 RSL 2-2-4 VAN 2-1-3 FCD 2-1-1 SKC 1-4-0 SEA 1-4-4 COR 2-0-5 SJE 1-2-1 POR 1-2-2 MIN 1-0-4 Week 19 fixtures: ATL v. SJE MIN v. CLB FCD v. DCU HOU v. MTL VAN v. NYC POR v. CHI SKC v. PHI
2017ATLCHICLBDCUMNTNERNYCNYRORLPHITRNCOLFCDHOULAGMINPORRSLSEASJQSPKVAN ATL1:04:1 CHI3:02:12:04:14:0 CLB3:23:0 DCU0:00:0 MNT4:12:21:2 NER2:05:24:00:0 NYC3:12:12:1 NYR1:01:30:0 ORL2:02:12:2 PHI2:12:01:3 TRN2:03:20:0 COL2:11:0 FCD2:11:13:1 HOU3:14:14:0 LAG2:22:00:0 MIN1:61:0 POR1:11:1 RSL1:32:10:11:00:0 SEA0:03:33:11:10:1 SJQ1:01:1 SPK1:12:0 VAN3:10:10:00:2 Six more games since I decided to defend my dissertation (I passed!). In those six, the East has gone 4-1-1. With 56 games left, there remain a total of 118 points left. The East has 106 points, the West 73. To win, the West needs 76 of those 118 points, or 64.4%. And they have to net 29 extra goals to accomplish this task. And a bunch of those games are going to be away games, and a handful of those home games will be ties or losses. 2017HOMEHOMEHOMEAWAYAWAYAWAYTOTSTOTSTOTS 2017WINS TIESLOSSWINS TIESLOSSG.S.G.A.G.D. EAST23.007.003.006.0012.0015.00102.0074.0028.00 WEST15.0012.006.003.007.0023.0074.00102.00-28.00 ATLU2.000.000.002.002.001.0016.007.009.00 CHIC5.000.000.000.001.000.0017.004.0013.00 CLBS2.000.000.000.000.002.008.007.001.00 DCUD0.002.000.001.000.000.001.000.001.00 MONT1.001.001.000.001.002.008.009.00-1.00 NERV3.001.000.000.002.002.0016.009.007.00 NYFC3.000.000.000.001.003.0011.0013.00-2.00 NYRB1.001.001.000.000.001.002.005.00-3.00 ORLD2.001.000.001.002.002.009.0010.00-1.00 PHIL2.000.001.000.002.001.005.005.000.00 TORN2.001.000.002.001.001.009.005.004.00 COLO2.000.000.000.000.005.004.0010.00-6.00 FCDS2.001.000.000.000.001.007.005.002.00 HOUS3.000.000.000.000.004.0012.0012.000.00 LAGA1.002.000.001.001.001.008.005.003.00 MINN1.000.001.000.000.003.007.0017.00-10.00 PORT0.002.000.001.000.002.008.0010.00-2.00 RSLK2.001.002.000.001.002.004.0011.00-7.00 SEAT1.003.001.000.001.003.0011.0017.00-6.00 SJEQ1.001.000.000.001.001.003.003.000.00 SPKC1.001.000.000.003.000.005.003.002.00 VANC1.001.002.001.000.001.005.009.00-4.00 2017TOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSTOTSPTSA 2017TGP.PTS.GPG.PPG.GAPGGLFT2016 EAST66.00106.001.551.611.1256.00-20.00 WEST66.0073.001.121.111.5556.00-71.00 ATLU7.0014.002.292.001.005.000.00 CHIC6.0016.002.832.670.675.005.00 CLBS4.006.002.001.501.757.00-5.00 DCUD3.005.000.331.670.008.00-8.00 MONT6.005.001.330.831.505.00-11.00 NERV8.0012.002.001.501.123.00-4.00 NYFC7.0010.001.571.431.864.00-10.00 NYRB4.004.000.501.001.257.00-10.00 ORLD8.0012.001.121.501.253.004.00 PHIL6.008.000.831.330.835.002.00 TORN7.0014.001.292.000.714.003.00 COLO7.006.000.570.861.434.00-8.00 FCDS4.007.001.751.751.257.00-13.00 HOUS7.009.001.711.291.714.002.00 LAGA6.009.001.331.500.835.00-6.00 MINN5.003.001.400.603.407.000.00 PORT5.005.001.601.002.006.00-8.00 RSLK8.008.000.501.001.373.00-8.00 SEAT9.007.001.220.781.892.00-12.00 SJEQ4.005.000.751.250.757.00-6.00 SPKC5.007.001.001.400.606.00-9.00 VANC6.007.000.831.171.505.00-6.00
I've followed many versions of this thread. If nothing else it shows the relative strength of the SS winner. I.e. an SS winner from the EC v WC conference winner is better than an SS winner from the losing EC v WC conference. I've also learned to live with away losses thanks to this data.
The way I've set up my spreadsheet this year is going to let me test a question I've had for a long time: does the distance of the away match change the number of goals scored by the home team? I imagine that as you get further away from "home," your expected goals decrease substantially, and the home team increases, but by what quantity.
I want to have enough data over several years to account for crowd size, referee card bias, altitude, weather, distance, etc...all the little things that supposedly give an edge.