#10 Spain drew 2-2 with #5 Colombia today. That's not gonna help Spain's chances getting a seed. Also #12 Italy beat #16 Uruguay 3-nil.
Uruguay's form has really dipped, however, I think they will find their groove come WC time. They do need to find a first-rate attacking midfielder soon, especially with Carlos Sanchez's age beginning to show.
1. Russia 2. Brazil 3. Argentina (will qualify) 4. Germany 5. Chile (will qualify) 6. Portugal (will qualify) 7. Switzerland (will qualify) 8. Poland (will qualify)
Friendly matches give very low amount of points for FIFA's ranking. To base all chances in getting seeded on them, is completely delusional. Only matches that always counts the same no matter at what level or type of tournament, are defeats, but in this case they always count negatively To get the required points, you do so basicly on what your team does in continental type of tournaments and at the past WC (although given that they are from 3 years ago, these last points count lots less).
Settle-down. I never said all their chances rested on the friendly. But since Spain is on the cusp of getting a seed, every match is important now. Even though this was a friendly, Colombia is #5 in the world so there was a chance to get a adequate amount of points (if Spain had won).
Friendly matches will not help them at all, as even if their opponents are Brazil (top ranked team of the world), even wins against them, will not increase their point average. All that Spain can do, is get positive results in what is left of their current WC qualifier campaign (win vs.Italy is a must). And wait for those who are on top of them, to lose more matches. Maybe even play friendlies against those on top of them, only by beating them, so they get zero points for those matches affecting their point averages. Defeats and draws will only make more patent their current position, or even make them fall lower, as what will sure happen for next month, after their draw vs Colombia (together with Polands win at WC qualifier, whom will now leave Spain an a few others behind). Hey, not only Spain will get affected on their ranking points, for next month. With their draw against Spain, together with not being able to defend the points won at WC qualifiers 4 years ago, Colombia, will lose over 150 points, putting them very close tothe 7th spot, which is the spot for the last seeded team. And Argentina, despite beating Singapur, for that win, and same reason as for Colombia of not being capable of defending past WC qualifier points, they are also going to lose more than 150 points as well (this Singapur match to Argentina is the equivalent to what got the Netherlands, losing their seeded spot for the 2014 WC draw). As Brazil didn't play the previous WC qualifiers, their points will not get affected for that reason. in their case, they have no way of defending the points won last Confed cup, so their ranking points will also decrease in about 100 pts. In fact this last issue will also affect negatively Spain, Italy and Uruguay, as well (for the case, Germany, Portugal and Chile, the same as all the others taking part in it, with wins at the next Confed cup can get favoured on their respectful point averages)
By my calculation a friendly win over Colombia would've been worth about the same as the qualifier win against Macedonia and more than the qualifier draw in Italy last September. Of course the upcoming match against Italy is the most important, but the friendly against Colombia could've been helpful to Spain. Time will only tell whether it costs them a seed in the WC draw.
Sure, on points it is about the same. But a draw, which is how it went, only is a third of those potential points. And its effect on the average points is detrimental. As posted in my previous post, what most affects Spain (same as for Italy and Uruguay), is that they can't defend the points won at the previous Confed cup. For their case, and given their current position, just with this fact in mind, they will probably not get seeded (they need a miracle for that to happen, represented in very bad campaigns for those who currentlty are on top of them, for the rest of WC qualifiers and next Confed Cup).
Which is exactly the point I made in my original post; a post which you described as "completely delusional". But that's true for every team in the top 15 of the FIFA rankings since they were all engaged in a confederation championship tournament exactly 1 year ago. Even Portugal and Chile are in danger of bleeding points, since there's no guarantee they'll do as well in the Confederations' Cup as they did last summer.
yes, but the Confederation Cup is only played every 4 years, where participation is limited only to those whom won their respectful Confederation tournaments, which means that not all among the top 15 get to play in it. Points won at the respectful Confederation level tournament (the summer before), aren't lost, as they will continue figuring in the averages of the respectful year. This points will only disappear after 4 years, time after which, they are replaced by the points those teams will get the next Confederation level tournament. The Confederation Cup is not the same as for any of the Confederation tournaments.(Euro, Copa America, Gold cup, AFC nations cup, CAF nations cup, OFC nations cup) It's value for FIFA is bigger than any of them, second only to the WC. And points won there, only need to be defended 4 years later (not the next year), if teams qualify to it again. Teams qualified to the Confed Cup, bleed points only by losing matches in it, only from the average points of the year when the tournament gets to be played at. Defeats are the same as in every level, as they all consider zero points for that match. But wins and draws at the Confed cup, give even more points than Confederation level tournaments or qualifier matches do (reasons why, basicly those who make it out of group phase at the Confed cup, usually are the ones whom make the biggest amount of points).
[QUOTE="Rickdog, post: 35553812, member: 172506" But wins and draws at the Confed cup, give even more points than Confederation level tournaments or qualifier matches do (reasons why, basicly those who make it out of group phase at the Confed cup, usually are the ones whom make the biggest amount of points).[/QUOTE] Nah, man. Confed Cup counts the same as a Continental tournament. If Chile or Portugal win the Confed Cup they could move to #2 in the FIFA rankings. But if they don't do well, they'll drop out of the top 7 for sure. So the tournament matters greatly to them... Good call by those posters that predicted Poland to be seeded. Looks like they're poised to be in the top 7 in coming FIFA rankings. They might not lose another game in qualifying if you look at their remaining games.
I took a look at FIFA's site to check it out, and you are right. Confed cup gives the same amount ponts as of Continental level main tournaments do. Anyhow, points won one year, only stop counting, 4 years later. The bleed on points that any team taking part in the Confed cup, comes from the lower average of points that the team will have only for the year the tournament takes place.
I have to be the guy to point out.... ...has FIFA officially said that they are using their Rankings again for seedings in Russia or are we all just assuming this?
FIFA established this issue long before the 2010 WC took place, for every tournament sanctioned by FIFA, since then. They don't need to have an official comunications each time a new tournament takes place, when nothing has changed related to this issue. Only if they decide to make some change, they will probably come out with an official statement refered to it.