MLS East v. West 2017

Sure. I'm in.

 

Yearly winners (W-T-L):

2016: WEST 38-30-32
2015: WEST 45-20-35
2014: WEST 36-26-28
2013: WEST 41-22-27
2012: EAST 35-23-32
2011: WEST 57-58-47
2010: WEST 60-33-35
2009: WEST 42-28-37
2008: EAST 42-20-36
2007: EAST 30-26-28
2006: EAST 26-21-25
2005: EAST 37-16-19
2004: WEST 27-19-24
2003: EAST 29-21-20
2002: WEST 33-8-19
2001: WEST 26-14-23
2000: CENTRAL 31-13-30
1999: WEST 35-18-19
1998: WEST 36-9-27
1997: EAST 30-22-28
1996: EAST 33-16-31

 

Inter-conference games by week, 2017:

Week 1: 5 games (East hosts 1, West hosts 4)
Week 2: 5 (3,2)
Week 3: 3 (0,3)
Week 4: 3 (3,0)
Week 5: 5 (2,3)
Week 6: 3 (2,1)
Week 7: 1 (1,0)
Week 8: 1 (1,0)
Week 9: 5 (3,2)
Week 10: 4 (0,4)
Week 11: 7 (5,2)
Week 12: 7 (5,2)
Week 13: 3 (0,3)
Week 14: 5 (3,2)
Week 15: 1 (0,1)
Week 16: 1 (1,0)
Week 17: 2 (1,1)
Week 18: 4 (2,2)
Week 19: 7 (1,6)
Week 20: 7 (5,2)
Week 21: 3 (0,3)
Week 22: 3 (1,2)
Week 23: 5 (4,1)
Week 24: 5 (1,4)
Week 25: 4 (4,0)
Week 26: 1 (0,1)
Week 27: 6 (5,1)
Week 28: 5 (2,3)
Week 29: 3 (2,1)
Week 30: 4 (2,2)
Week 31: 1 (1,0)
Week 32: 1 (0,1)
Week 33: 1 (0,1)

There are 122 games this year. It would have been 121 but Atlanta and Minnesota play twice.

The games are spread out more in the season this year. That is because of the odd numbers of teams in each conference. The mid-point of the inter-conference schedule is June 21.

The hosting starts off biased toward the West as usual hosting 9 of the first 13 games. But things even out after that.

 

Is this the year the East retakes the crown? Because obviously Atlanta is going undefeated.

 

It wound up pretty close last year. If the East would have won 4 more games they would have taken the crown.

The problem is that the West is just a notch better all the way down. It isn't just one team. If you notice, only 3 teams won a majority of their games. And only one team lost 6 of the 10. Every team lost at least twice. These are hard games to win.

The East needs several teams to pick up an extra win. That is the more likely route.

W-T-L in inter-conference games, 2016:
East
NYC 6-2-2
MTL 4-4-2
NER 4-4-2
NYR 4-2-4
DCU 3-4-3
CHI 3-2-5
CLB 3-2-5
TFC 3-2-5
ORL 1-5-4
PHI 1-3-6

West
FCD 6-2-2
SEA 6-1-3
SKC 5-1-4
RSL 4-4-2
LAG 4-3-3
COR 3-5-2
VAN 4-1-5
POR 3-4-3
SJE 2-5-3
HOU 1-4-5

 

From the results, I could see TFC picking up a game or two, and maybe Chicago? Orlando, Philly and Columbus I see doing about the same, but you never know really in this crazy league.

 

The first sentence is correct. Every team plays each team in the other conference once, except Atlanta and Minnesota who play twice.

 

In another topic it was posted that 11 teams cannot play 23 conference games each because 11x23 is an odd number and there are two clubs in each game. There will be 115 East vs. East games, 115 West vs. West games, and 144 East vs. West games.

 

Week 1 fixtures:

RSL v. TFC
COR v. NER
DCU v. SKC
SJE v. MTL
VAN v. PHI

 

My hypothesis is the west is stronger because you have less cities with three or four teams in the other major sports, and those other sports teams have less avid fans. Basically entrenched teams such as the Yankees and Red Sox prevent MLS teams from getting oxygen. Hence your strongest MLS fan bases are the northwest, Utah, LA with no football, etc... The hypothesis has flaws though.

 

In 2016, the 8 American clubs in the Eastern Conference had an average of 4.6 combined MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL clubs to compete with. This is greatly increased by the same 9 clubs for the Red Bulls and NYCFC to compete with. The 9 American clubs in the Western Conference had an average of 3.4 combined MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL clubs to compete with. I included all teams in the area. For example, I had the Earthquakes competing with all teams in San Francisco, Oakland, San Jose, and Sacramento. I excluded Canadian MLS clubs because I didn't want to research competition with the Canadian Football League. The Crew have only the Blue Jackets to compete with in MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL, but they also have Ohio State.

 

Number of top-level teams in MLS markets (markets defined by CSA, does not include CFL or LA Chargers):
11: NY
8: LA
7: DC, SJ
6: Chi
5: Bos, Dal, Den, Min, Phi
4: Atl, Hou, Tor
3: KC, Sea
2: Clb, Mtl, Orl, Por, SLC, Van

Including the Canadian teams definitely makes the result much closer, as both Toronto and Montreal are below the East's average. If New York is counted twice, the East average is 5.4. Counting it once lowers the number to 4.8. Excluding Canada, those numbers are 5.9 and 5.3. For the West, the number with Vancouver is 4.2; without is 4.4.

As it turns out, the difference is concentrated at the higher end. Both conferences have equal numbers of places with only two sports, and the West has only one more place without a full complement of five. But the East has more that are quite high on the list, especially NY, but a count including LAFC and the Chargers will close some of the gap, even if Miami is added at the same time.

 

I was only looking at competition in other sports, so I didn't count the MLS clubs like you did.

 

I would argue, unscientifically, that MLB and NFL are more significant because their seasons overlap more with MLS. You might argue that a long run in the play-offs for an NBA or NHL team dips far into the MLS season, but even then it is with the beginning of the season than the end.

I'd also argue that the East coast baseball team are much more important cultural entities than western ones- thinking Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Nationals, verse Mariners, Rangers, Astros, Royals, but that might be stretching it. I'm probably clouded by New York being such a big market. I guess I also get this because it makes a buzz when the Red Sox and Yankees come to play the Rockies here in Denver, but perhaps this has more to do rarity- they come only every few years whereas the Dodgers and Giants come every year because they are in the same division. But the Mariners don't create any buzz, nor the Angels, and I don't think they come every year.

Anyway, there is something about western cities being more receptive. Perhaps its just they have more newer residents.

 

Win % is a little misleading since there are ties in there. Win/loss ratio would be more relevant.

 

Generally speaking, I agree that MLB is more culturally relevant in the East--when you think about which single team is most iconic for a market, nothing rivals the Yankees in New York, even the NFL teams. Conversely, Los Angeles is one of the few big cities with NBA first. Even after several bad years and without big names, the Lakers are persistently relevant.

Because I'm obsessive-compulsive, here's a list of my guesses on the most prominent team in several large markets.

NY Yankees, LA Lakers, Chicago Cubs, Washington Redskins, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Toronto Maple Leafs, Houston Astros, Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Red Wings, Seattle Seahawks, Phoenix Suns, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos. Houston is the westernmost place I decided on MLB for, and that was hard because most people I knew when I lived there were transplants, too.

 

I'd suggest SEC football is more relevant than the Falcons, and the fact that ATLUTD's season starts when college football is at its quietest is a huge help.

 

I'd only included specific professional team sport franchises, but it's plausible the area would rank college football above pro.