2018 FIFA WORLD CUP QUALIFIERS - CONCACAF [R]

Discussion in 'CONCACAF' started by fridge46, Jan 15, 2015.

  1. SJJ

    SJJ Member

    Sep 20, 1999
    Royal Oak, MI, USA
    Club:
    Michigan Bucks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm thinking that the USA would want to again (like last time) that they travel to Mexico on the second of the "double dates" so that they can have an at-altitude game for the first date. ("Team 2" hosts on all of the even matchdays, and "Team 3" hosts on four of them.)
     
  2. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  3. wixson7

    wixson7 Member+

    May 12, 2009
    boulder
    Ok, draw is set...I think I have this figured out. Maybe.

    Mexico is Team 5. Known.

    If US top group C, they will be Team 1:
    - will host Mexico on matchday 1, November 11th, 2016.
    - will be away to team 4 - Group B winner on matchday 2, November 15th, 2016. As it stands, Costa Rica, but maybe Panama.

    If US 2nd in group C, they will be Team 6:
    - will host team 4 - group B winner on matchday 1, November 11th, 2016. As it stands, Costa Rica, but maybe Panama.
    - will be away to Team 3 - Group A runner up on matchday 2, November 15th, 2016. Honduras/Canada or maybe El Salvador.

    Known: US (if they qualify of course) will host on Matchday 1 either Mexico or probably Costa Rica. Matchday 2 will be away.
     
  4. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For 6 of the matchdays the USA knows if they will be home or away. In addition to the first two, USA will be home on Matchday 3, away on Matchday 6, home on Matchday 7, and away on Matchday 8. The two teams from USA's group play each other on Matchdays 5 and 10. If USA wins their group, they will be away on Matchday 4 and home on Matchday 9. If USA finishes second, they will be home on Matchday 4 and away on Matchday 9. If USA and Trinidad and Tobago advance, they will play each other to end the Semifinals and the Hexagonal, with the second place Semifinal team hosting the last Hexagonal game. If USA wins their group, they will have a tough start with hosting Mexico and a trip to the Group B winner. Their trip to Mexico would be in the heat in June. The good thing about that is USA's last three games would be at the second place team from Mexico's group (possibly the worst team in the Hexagonal), hosting the second place teams from Costa Rica's group, and at Trinidad and Tobago or Guatemala. If USA wins their group, they will be home the first game of every pair and away the second game of every pair. If USA finishes second, they will be home in both March 2017 games and away in both June 2017 games. Being home in both March 2017 games could let the USA make opponents play in cold weather, and the second March 2017 game would be against Mexico. There is a rotation so that every team will play one opponent on Matchdays 1 and 6, one on Matchdays 2 and 7, one on Matchdays 3 and 8, one on Matchdays 4 and 9, and one on Matchdays 5 and 10. That's how it was last time except for one game being moved for Mexico to play in the Confederations Cup. If USA wins their group, they will go to Mexico for their second June 2017 game, which could become their first June 2017 game if it is moved up for Mexico to play in the Confederations Cup.

    If you make Honduras be A2, Costa Rica be B1, Panama be B2, and Trinidad and Tobago be C1 or C2 (whichever one of C1 and C2 the USA isn't), here are the ELO rating points for the USA's opponents with 100 points added to a team when hosting USA and 100 points subtracted from a team when at the USA:

    If USA is C1:
    1,788
    1,869
    1,408
    1,755
    1,457
    1,988
    1,669
    1,608
    1,555
    1,657

    If USA is C2:
    1,669
    1,608
    1,555
    1,788
    1,657
    1,869
    1,408
    1,755
    1,988
    1,457

    The sum of the points is 16,754 either way. I calculated the correlation between matchday number and opponents' ELO points. Correlation ranges from -1 to 1. A positive correlation means the schedule is harder later and a negative correlation means the schedule is easier later. As C1 the correlation would be -0.214 and as C2 the correlation would be 0.084. Because you play each opponent once in the first five games and once in the last five games, the correlation can't be too strong in either direction.
     
  5. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Man, potentially starting the Hex w/games against Mexico and Costa Rica is diving straight into the deep end...I like it. :sneaky:
     
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  6. jared9999

    jared9999 Member+

    Jan 3, 2005
    Naucalpan Estado de Mex
    Club:
    Club América
    Nat'l Team:
    Mexico
    The hex starts in November? starting early
     
  7. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The months the games would be played were announced a long time ago. The 2009 Hexagonal had one game each in February and August on matchdays FIFA has abolished. The 2013 Hexagonal started in February and had three games in June compared to two in June and one in August in previous Hexagonals. The upcoming Hexagonal will have two games each in November 2016, March 2017, June 2017, late August-early September 2017, and October 2017.
     
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  8. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wikipedia has the start times for the September games. Here are the times in USA Eastern:

    September 2:
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. USA at 3:30 P.M.
    Honduras vs. Canada at 5:06 P.M.
    Trinidad and Tobago vs. Guatemala at 7:00 P.M.
    Haiti vs. Costa Rica at 7:00 P.M.
    Panama vs. Jamaica at 9:30 P.M.
    El Salvador vs. Mexico at 10:06 P.M.

    September 6:
    USA vs. Trinidad and Tobago at 8:15 P.M.
    Guatemala vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines at 9:00 P.M.
    Jamaica vs. Haiti at 9:00 P.M.
    Mexico vs. Honduras at 10:00 P.M.
    Costa Rica vs. Panama at 10:06 P.M.
    Canada vs. El Salvador at 10:39 P.M.

    If Panama wins hosting Jamaica on September 2, the two teams that advance from Group B will be known then. Panama's goal differential is 6 better than Jamaica's goal differential, so Panama would not clinch advancing with a draw on September 2 but would be very likely to advance. If USA wins at St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Trinidad and Tobago wins hosting Guatemala, the two teams hat advance from Group C will be known then. Honduras cannot clinch advancing on September 2, but if they win hosting Canada, Honduras will lead Canada by 3 points and at least 5 goal differential. Unlike in the end of the Semifinals in October 2012, the two games in the same group on the last matchday will not be at the same time. In each group, the second game will start during the first game, with the gaps being 39 minutes for Group A, 66 minutes for Group B, and 45 minutes for Group C. The average start times are 7:02 P.M. on September 2 and 9:30 P.M. on September 6.
     
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  9. Catracho_Azul

    Catracho_Azul Member+

    Jun 16, 2008
    New Orleans
    Club:
    Corinthians Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Honduras
    You'd think by now we'd get accustomed to the suspense of qualifying out of CONCACAF.

    It gets worse every time lol.
     
  10. SJJ

    SJJ Member

    Sep 20, 1999
    Royal Oak, MI, USA
    Club:
    Michigan Bucks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm guessing that Evan is referencing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CONCACAF_Fourth_Round

    Don't really believe those kick-off. Wikipedia is often wrong (and I've messaged Evan in the past with this). The last matchday will probably have kickoffs simultaneous within the groups; the only exception is if the top two slots are known.

    What is odd, though, is that the last two matchday times are not listed on either the Fifa nor Concacaf sites. (However, if you select the "Report (Fifa)" links for Sept 6 on the Wikipedia page, both USA-TRI and GUA-SVG both are listed as 20:15 Eastern.)
     
  11. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I was referencing Wikipedia. Regardless of when the games start, I think FIFA should have a policy requiring teams to announce the start time of their home WCQs farther in advance unless there are special circumstances. For example, the fourth place team in the Hexagonal will play an Asian team in November 2017, and the start times cannot be determined until the teams are determined.

    I don't know what time zone all of the games are in, but I have some idea, and if my times are correct, given the time zone only one of the twelve games has a time that surprises me. That's the game in Jamaica, which I would have expected to start earlier than 9:00 P.M. The game in Canada will start late because it is in BC Place in Vancouver, which is confirmed by the schedule at www.canadasoccer.com. The start times of both USA games on U.S. Soccer's schedule and Wikipedia match, except for the home game being listed at 8:00 P.M. according to U.S. Soccer and 8:15 P.M. on Wikipedia. USA home games never start on the hour or half hour the games are announced at.

    On another note, http://www.guatefutbol.com/estadisticas/rusia-2018 has the dates correct but no start times. If you go to pages for the September 2 and 6 games, it mistakenly says the games are in "Octubre."
     
  12. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/nccamerica/all-matches.html#2000062536 now has the start times, and Wikipedia was wrong. On September 2, Haiti vs. Costa Rica will start at 8:00 P.M., which is 1 hour later than I posted above, and the other five times in Post 333 of this topic are correct. That makes the average start time 7:12 P.M., which is 10 minutes later than I posted above. On September 6, both games in each group will start at the same time:

    USA vs. Trinidad and Tobago and Guatemala vs. St. Vincent and the Grenadines will start at 8:15 P.M.
    Jamaica vs. Haiti and Costa Rica vs. Panama will start at 9:30 P.M.
    Canada vs. El Salvador and Mexico vs. Honduras will start at 10:00 P.M.

    That makes the average start time 9:15 P.M., which is 15 minutes earlier than I posted above. I like that the last game will start at 10:00 P.M. rather than 10:39 P.M., but there is a downside. Since the first two games won't end until after the last two games start, no one channel can show more than one game live. If the last two games started at 10:30 P.M., there could have been a live doubleheader. In 2012, the Matchday 6 start times were 4:00 P.M., 7:15 P.M., and 9:00 P.M. The 9:00 P.M. games started before the 7:15 P.M. games ended, but the 9:00 P.M. games were relatively meaningless. Mexico had clinched a spot in the Hexagonal, Guyana was eliminated, and El Salvador's only hope was to win at Mexico while Costa Rica lost hosting Guyana or Costa Rica drew hosting Guyana with El Salvador beating Mexico by enough goals to win the tiebreaker.

    CONMEBOL plays games on September 6, and BeIN Sports will have to choose what to show. Here is the CONMEBOL schedule:

    Venezuela vs. Argentina: FIFA doesn't have the time
    Uruguay vs. Paraguay at 7:00 P.M.
    Chile vs. Bolivia at 8:30 P.M.
    Brazil vs. Colombia at 8:45 P.M.
    Peru vs. Ecuador at 10:15 P.M.

    The USA will be on Fox Sports 1 on September 6. Guatemala could be eliminated before September 6. BeIN Sports could show Uruguay vs. Paraguay at 7:00 P.M. (or Venezuela vs. Argentina if it starts early enough) followed by one of the 9:30 P.M. or 10:00 P.M. CONCACAF games.
     
    IASocFan repped this.
  13. Outburstz

    Outburstz Member

    Jun 22, 2014
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The hex is pretty much set with

    Mexico, Honduras , Costa Rica, Panama, USA and Trinidad and Tobago
     
  14. Catracho_Azul

    Catracho_Azul Member+

    Jun 16, 2008
    New Orleans
    Club:
    Corinthians Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Honduras
    Uff.. That looks daunting.
     
  15. Outburstz

    Outburstz Member

    Jun 22, 2014
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Should be interesting to say the least
     
  16. barnabyjonez

    barnabyjonez Member

    May 28, 2011
    The Valley, Saba
    Club:
    Vancouver Whitecaps
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I wouldn't count Canada out just yet. Mexico is 5-0 in this round; they have scored more than 2 goals per game. After the Chile debacle, they still have something to prove. I can see Mexico beating Honduras by 4 goals at Azteca. It is conceivable that at home Canada could win by two goals. With these results, Honduras is out. Also, Mexico would rather play Canada twice in the Hex than unpredictable Honduras. Maybe they'll also remember the help the US gave them last time. The Mexican fans will be cheering them on to be spoilers for sure.
     
  17. slaminsams

    slaminsams Member+

    Mar 22, 2010
    Possible but Honduras is going to play bunker ball so it's unlikely they will be smashed. Canada really shot themselves in the foot when they didn't finish off a very weak El Salvador team in El Salvador. How does the USA helping Mexico factor in to this?

    I'm not sure how many people were around then but for some reason a few years back Canadians were convinced they would be a concacaf super power along with the other North American teams. Now years later still no domestic league just relying on the few club spots the USA gives them Canada is not keeping up even in a cycle were Honduras had significant issues. I know there are a lot of impediments but a legitimate domestic league is the only thing that can get Canada on track
     
  18. Outburstz

    Outburstz Member

    Jun 22, 2014
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think he means that Mexico may really try and beat Honduras down to give Canada a shot at qualifying for the hex by really trying like the USA did vs Panama. If the USA had just relaxed and not cared Mexico wouldn't have made the world cup Panama would have.

    But you are right Canada really screwed themselves with that 0-0 draw. It was a long shot that they were going to beat Honduras in Honduras despite the early goal
     
  19. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, but Canada would have been in good shape with a draw yesterday.
     
  20. Catracho_Azul

    Catracho_Azul Member+

    Jun 16, 2008
    New Orleans
    Club:
    Corinthians Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Honduras
    Possible, but not likely. Honduras really seems keyed in for this game. Immediately after the Canada win, Pinto started Recovery sessions on the field while the subs and reserves who didn't play, played a scrimmage. They're already in Mexico too.

    A Pinto team that bunkers and plays the counter is a dangerous team for anybody, I think that's been well-documented already.
     
  21. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    For the most part.
    Except when he managed Colombia. :sick::ROFLMAO:
     
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  22. Catracho_Azul

    Catracho_Azul Member+

    Jun 16, 2008
    New Orleans
    Club:
    Corinthians Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Honduras
    :laugh:

    Getting away with things in CONCACAF that he absolutely couldn't in CONMEBOL :D
     
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  23. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How long was he in charge there? We've seen with Honduras now and Costa Rica last WC cycle that he needs a good 18-24 months for his methods to pay off. Just in case we forgot: Costa Rica were this close to not even making the Hex last time (had they lost in the Cuscatlán).
     
  24. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    I don't want to get into a Colombia conversation here.
    I will say sometimes your tactics work outside of your country better than within. A change in scenery can help.
    Maybe not because of his own doing but because of many factors outside of his control.
     
  25. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    And to be fair his tactics worked at the Club level within Colombia.
     

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