I think ELO is the best ranking out there when it comes to translating different results into something we can all quickly look at to form some impressions about how teams have been doing in terms of their results. I would agree, however, that how a team fares in a tournament is not merely the product of its past results. Other factors play a role, some of which can't be quantified (including luck), but also other factors which can be quantified although perhaps no so objectively (such as talent and pedigree). There is a ranking out there called SPI which tries to look into all these factors. It explicitly mentions that it doesn't rank teams based on their past results alone, but gives weight to pedigree and talent as well. The methodology used by SPI is explained here. Whatever its merits in theory, however, in practice SPI didn't do a good job predicting outcomes in World Cup 2010. But if you like to see their rankings, you can see them here. I don't agree with many of their rankings, but among the AFC teams, they have Japan ranked #35, South Korea #37, Iran #38, and Australia #46.
no disrespect to the SPI but how come Bahrain ranked higher than us when we recently won them 6-2 @ Dubai & 2-1 @ Bahrain ? I could understand Qatar & Oman being ahead since they made it to final round of the WC qualification round but Syria they messed up big time last qualification & no one was more happier than Japan ?
On results alone, the best summary is found in the ELO rankings. You will be pleased to discover that ELO ranks the UAE right now very highly (47), not far below South Korea (44) and as the AFC's 5th best team, just above Uzbekistan (48). Bahrain, on the other hand, are ranked 99! SPI, on the other hand, as I understand it gives a lot of weight to World Cup and World Cup qualfiying matches (not just from this cycle but past ones too) and some weight to the final round of the Asian Cup, but doesn't pay too much attention to many other results. Many of the points the UAE has earned have been in the kind of games that SPI doesn't weigh much. (SPI also gives points based on talent and some other subjective criteria, including what kind of teams were being fielded in friendlies etc). While I believe SPI has some of the right ideas, at the end of the day I don't like their rankings either. It is particularly generous towards CONCACAF teams which it overrates IMO.
March ranking : 42 Iran -4 48 Japan +2 55 Uzbekistan +2 60 South Korea +1 61 UAE -3 63 Australia -10 66 Jordan +3 75 Saudi Arabia - 81 Oman -1 98 China -10 http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/index.html#
Iraq on the rise Good to see Australia and China falling down. Both teams deserve to be lower ranked.
Still better than UAE and Uzbekistan But it's a shock that we have dropped 10 places, as Ecuador were ranked 24th (23 now).
We deserved it when we kept on losing important qualifiers last year. But come on Tajikistan above us?? We deserve to be 8th or 9th right now as I see it. Uzbekistan fourth or fifth but not above Korea Republic. And UAE 6th or 7th. I wanna see more from UAE. They were in the weakest group in the ACQ's and getting 4 points from Uzbekistan is their only achievement in my opinion.
Tajikistan is below you . Definitely, we are not stronger then Korea now. But it is just a calculation of last 4 years, there can't be a trick.
Anyway I hope that they will use the 2011 edition to determine the pots for the 2015 Asian Cup instead of FIFA rankings. We lost a lot of points and it affected us. We should be on par with Jordan and UAE, not with Bahrain and Kuwait.
How could Auzzis be ranked lower than UAE and Uzbaks. What have changed since last month or the month before??
Did your team climb any spots in @FIFAcom's latest rankings? pic.twitter.com/h4hJU0qu2j https://twitter.com/afcasiancup/status/464647733526417408/photo/1
After these results from the World Cup, JAPAN will climb back to Number 1 in Asia - although that title will have slightly less importance now. AUSTRALIA will slip to only Number 8 in Asia - and their worst overall ranking on over a decade. To be fair some of that poor ranking is because of being host for the Asian Cup, and not playing competitive qualifiers which are worth much more than friendlies. Still . . . . . the impact of Australia's "golden generation" has now gone.
July ranking : 45 Japan +1 49 Iran -6 52 Uzbekistan +7 56 South Korea +1 57 Jordan +6 65 UAE +7 69 Oman +10 76 Australia -14 78 Saudi Arabia +12 85 Palestine +9 http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/index.html#
August ranking : 44 Japan +1 48 Iran +1 51 Uzbekistan +1 56 Jordan +1 57 South Korea -1 65 UAE - 67 Oman +2 79 Australia -3 83 Saudi Arabia -5 88 Palestine -3 http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/index.html#