I know that Knave has been the one who traditionally posts these down the stretch, but in an ironic/cruel twist of fate, the teams that are currently setting the pace for just missing the playoffs are DC United and Chivas USA. To spare him the anguish, I am taking a stab at it, although I am not going to include all of the additional information that he has provided in the past. Corrections are welcome. GR = games remaining, MP = maximum points, MN = magic number = points that must be gained to clinch making playoffs, TN = tragic number = points that must be dropped to clinch missing playoffs, SS = points that must be gained to clinch Supporters' Shield. Points can be gained/dropped by a team not only directly by winning/losing or drawing, but also by certain other teams dropping/gaining them, and vice-versa. I will try to update this at least weekly. Code: EASTERN CONFERENCE Rank Team Pts GR MP MN TN SS 1 SKC 50 7 71 13 31 25 2 NYR 46 7 67 17 27 29 3 CHI 44 8 68 19 28 31 4 HOU 42 7 63 21 23 33 5 CLB 42 8 66 21 26 33 6 DCU 41 7 62 23 21 34 7 MON 39 5 54 25 13 36 8 PHL 26 9 53 38 12 -- 9 NER 25 7 46 39 5 -- 10 TOR 21 7 42 -- 1 -- WESTERN CONFERENCE Rank Team Pts GR MP MN TN SS 1 SJE 53 7 74 3 42 19 2 RSL 46 6 64 10 32 29 3 SEA 44 8 68 12 36 31 4 LAG 43 6 61 13 29 32 5 VAN 37 6 55 19 23 38 6 FCD 33 5 48 23 12 -- 7 CHV 28 9 55 28 19 47 8 POR 27 8 51 29 15 -- 9 COL 26 7 47 30 11 -- Toronto cannot clinch a playoff spot, hence no magic number, but could still theoretically climb into a tie for fifth, hence a tragic number of 1. Disclaimer: At this point, I am only crunching the raw numbers, not looking at real scenarios based on remaining schedules.
Good stuff. I'm not sure I understand the SS numbers on the right. Chivas USA, for example, has no way of gaining 47 points.
For Chivas to win the Supporters' Shield, they would have to win all 9 of their remaining games, gaining 27 points to finish with 55; and San Jose would have to do no better than losing 6 of 7 and drawing the other, dropping 20 points to finish with 54. 27+20=47. Of course, the other teams above them would also have to drop enough points to finish below 55, but it is still theoretically possible. I swear that all of the columns aligned properly when I submitted the OP this morning . . .
Well, I think we can say the ship has sailed on 5 teams. Out East, New England, Philly, and once again Toronto are playing for next year (though TFC still has CCL). Out West, Colorado and Portland are finished. I'm not quite ready to pile dirt on Chivas as they have a bunch of games in hand, and I'm not confident that Vancouver will finish strong at all. And with Dallas getting healthier, I think they have a shot, though 4 points and 1 less game to go is tough. I think there are 7 legit contenders out East. Montreal has the toughest road, but Houston has CCL, Pappa just left Chicago (and headed down to Herenveen), and DC and Columbus have just finished exhausting schedule stretches. Like FCD, they have an uphill battle, but I wouldn't count L'Impact out just yet. In terms of scenarios, I know SKC and NYRB play each other twice down the stretch, a couple draws and the chasing pack could be right there. Really, for NY, Chicago is hard on their heels now, and Columbus will be too if they win midweek. Lastly, with best record determining home field for MLS Cup this year, teams (or at least fans) have an interest in how teams in the other conference are performing as well.
Because this new forum software sucks. And because I just haven't had quite the time. And because I really need to revamp my entire spreadsheet given the new league format, which leads back to that second thing. I'm happy to pass this task off to others even if it leads to this: If I do manage to get my shit together (ha!), I'll be a more active participant on these discussions.
Up to season 2009, the "magic number" to reach playoffs used to be around 40 points. Since season 2010, the number has increased to 46 points, and even that will likely not be enough for this season (especially in the crowded Eastern Conference)...
Thought I'd throw this together for the East, for the 7 still in contention, anyway. Might aid in looking at point scenarios. Team, PTS, GP, GR (H/A): Schedule 1. SKC, 50 , 27, 7 (3/4): HOU, @NY, @MON, Fire, crew, @NY, PHIL. 2. NY, -46, 27, 7 (5/2): Crew, SKC, @NE, TFC, Fire, SKC, Phil. 3. CHI, 44, 26, 8 (4/4): @TFC, MON, Crew, @SKC, PHIL, @NY, @NE, DC 4. HOU 42, 27, 7 (4/3): RSL, @SKC, FAS (CCL), Phil, NE, MON, PHIL, Oli (CCL), @Rapids 5. Crew -42, 26, 8 (4/4): @NE, @NY, CHV, FIRE, PHIL, SKC, DC, TFC. 6. DCU - 41, 27, 7 (3/4): NE, Phil, CHV, @POR, @TFC, Crew, FIRE. 7. MON -39, 29, 5 (2/3): FIRE, SKC, @HOU, @TFC, NE. Schedule thoughts: 1. SKC. Nothing but Eastern PO hopefulls until last game. NY twice. 2. NY. 5/7 at home where they are undefeated. 3 also-rans. 3. Fire. Balanced H/A. 1 GIH on all save Crew. 3 also-rans. 4. HOU. 3 of last 4 at home. Congestion with CCL, but both at home. 4 also-rans. 5. Crew. 1 GIH on all save Fire. 4 also rans. Three easy homies, 3 tough roadies. 6. DCU. 5 also-rans in a row, 2 PO contenders to close. 3/7 at home. 7. MON. 5 games left. 2 at home. 3 tough ones then 2 vs. also-rans. Might be too late by then. Battle royale among top 6. Really tough for Montreal with the GP situation, but their form has been so good, I still give them a chance. SKC has the toughest run in. NY looks like the easiest, with 5/7 at home. DC has the most also-rans left to play, but is a tad road heavy. Rest are in-betweeen.
This might be a monumentally stupid question, but would it be fair (and accurate, even) to say that any combination of Vancouver gaining and Dallas losing 12 points clinches FCD missing the playoffs? (Working on the assumption that it isn't realistic for them to catch any other Western team, even if it is still technically mathematically possible.)
34 games a year vs. 32 or 30 is some of it. And with 8/10 no longer making it, it is harder for a BAD team to make it. Mediocre can still happen, especially with the WC Conference specific, but BAD is going to be hard.
To date, the "best" team ever to miss the playoffs was Kansas City Wizards in 2005, who finished 5th in the East with a positive GD and W-L record: # Club ------------- PTS GP W- L T- GF GA GD 5 Kansas City Wizards 45 32 11 9 12 52 44 +8 The most "unjust" case of playoffs failure would belong to San Jose Clash in 1999, who were 5th in the stronger Western Conference, also with a positive GD and W-L record; while Miami qualified from the East with 8 point less, a losing record & much worse GD: C# Club -------- PTS GP W- L- T GF GA GD W5 San Jose Clash 37 32 19 13 0 58 52 +6 E4 Miami Fusion - 29 32 13 19 0 47 63 -16 This example was probably one of the chief reasons the league switched to the single table standings (with wildcards) for playoff qualifications in 2000-2001. As things stands, 2012 may well see a team (or two?) in the East missing out even with 50+ points (which would be quite mind-boggling), while a team from the West (likely to be Vancouver Whitecaps) may qualify with something between 42 to 45. Perhaps the league may consider returning to the single table playoff format (used in 2007-2011) from the next season onwards?
Unless they switch to a balanced schedule, (really, it's only two games more, why not do it? And yes I know there are scheduling arguments against, I just don't really believe them,) I don't see this happening. Although it may be effectively just in seasons like this one, you open the door for "you have more points just because you had easier competition!" arguments. I agree, though, right now it looks like the playoffs should feature more Eastern teams than Western. I have an idea for one change I think the playoffs definitely need, but that's for another thread...
San Jose in 1999 wasn't unjust - and had nothing to do with one conference being stronger than the others, and everything to do with the fact that 13 of San Jose's 19 wins were via shootout and worth only 1 point. In 1999, San Jose only won 6 games out of 32 in regulation. That's why they missed the playoffs.
Actually I'm pretty sure the wildcard format was due to the fact that MLS switched to 3 4-team divisions for 200 and 2001. Unless you're arguing that the reason they switched to that conference setup was due to San Jose missing the playoffs.
I thought the narrative was that the league wanted LA and NY in the playoffs...what are these facts you speak of?
Well, when the 5th place team in one conference had a better record than two playoff teams in the other conference, it had something to do with it. Any way you count the points, San Jose had a better regular season than Miami by a decent margin. Not quite, they had 9 regulation wins and 10 shootout wins. And under that point system it was good enough for 7th in the league.
Sorry, I've posted this is in another forum. But TFC is still in mathematically by the oddest situation. They basically need right now Houston to lose all of its remaining (including one to the Impact). The Impact to lose the rest of their games, and DC United to take no more than a point. While of course they win all of the rest of their games (and manage to have more goals scored than the rest of the above). San Jose has a magic number of one which requires Vancouver and Chivas to win out, except that they tie their match against each other, and San Jose to lose the rest.
I really do enjoy these one-in-a-million "best path" possibility traversals. That is one of the fun things that MLS gives us that is nearly unique: 3 point wins, 1 point draws, and play-offs. While I'm sure you could give similar treatment to other sports, the lack of draws in them (and the lack of play-offs in other soccer leagues) really simplifies the problems, and reduces this kind of analysis.
bgix Their odds are longer than one in a million. Your site ran 39 million scenarios and declared TFC mathematically eliminated.
It's a lot of iterations at this point: with 67 matches remaining, there are 3^67 possible outcomes of the season, or 92.7 tenzillion (is that a word? 927 with 29 more zeros)). For SJ to get eliminated, there are 20 matches involved, so all else being equal SJ can be eliminated 1 : 3,486,784,401. So one chance in 3.5 billion. Probably a gimme. Edit: And if you read the fine print, SCS doesn't claim mathematical certainty.... Merely that it ran simulations some millions of times. And odds are even worse than that, because LAG has to simultaneously also take at least 11 points out of 6 matches, Seattle 10 points out of 8 matches , and RSL 8 points out of 6 matches. But we are talking about shaving hairs off an amoeba here.