The 2010 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Numerical Arcana of Dubious Value [R]

I ought to post this before it becomes outdated tonight.

Code:

[B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule (Factoring Home and Away Performance)[/U]

Example: DCU’s strength of schedule = 
         Average of [COL HPPG, SJE APPG, CHI HPPG, TFC APPG]

RSL: 1.830
PHI: 1.611
FCD: 1.586
KCW: 1.500
NER: 1.409
LAG: 1.405
DCU: 1.375
CHI: 1.348
CDC: 1.309
HOU: 1.296
TFC: 1.277
COL: 1.264
CMB: 1.233
SJE: 1.114
SEA: 1.071
NYR: 1.054[/B]

For reference:

Code:

[B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U]

[U]         HPPG             APPG[/U]
01  RSL  2.43    01  LAG  1.85
02  CMB  2.15    02  FCD  1.54
03  NYR  2.08    03  SJE  1.50
04  COL  2.08    04  SEA  1.38
05  LAG  2.00    05  NYR  1.36
06  FCD  2.00    06  CMB  1.31
07  SJE  1.75    07  RSL  1.17
08  PHI  1.67    08  COL  1.00
09  TFC  1.64    09  KCW  1.00
10  SEA  1.62    10  CHI  0.92
11  KCW  1.62    11  TFC  0.67
12  NER  1.62    12  CDC  0.62
13  CDC  1.42    13  HOU  0.62
14  HOU  1.38    14  DCU  0.62
15  CHI  1.25    15  PHI  0.54
16  DCU  0.77    16  NER  0.38[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

[U]      WK27  WK28  WK29  WK30[/U]
CDC:   LAG   TFC  @SEA   SJE
      ----  ----  ----   CHI
CHI:  @SJE   CMB   KCW  @CDC
      @FCD  ----   DCU  ----
CMB:   SJE  @CHI  @TFC   PHI
COL:   PHI  @FCD  @LAG   RSL
       DCU  ----  ----  ----
DCU:  @COL   SJE  @CHI   TFC
FCD:   CHI   COL  @RSL  @LAG
HOU:  @PHI   NER  @SJE   SEA
KCW:  @NYR   SEA   CHI   SJE
      ----  ----  @NER  ----
LAG:  @CDC  @PHI   COL   FCD
NER:   RSL  @HOU   KCW  @NYR
NYR:   KCW   RSL  @PHI   NER
PHI:  @COL   LAG   NYR  @CMB
       HOU  ----  ----  ----
RSL:  @NER  @NYR   FCD  @COL
SEA:   TFC  @KCW   CDC  @HOU
SJE:   CHI  @DCU   HOU   CDC
      @CMB  ----  ----  @KCW
TFC:  @SEA  @CDC   CMB  @DCU[/B]

 

I was thinking earlier that they are already out. And it would not actually surprise me if MLS declared them out in the morning. But they are still in by a fingernail.

SJE owns the head-to-head against PHI. SEA split their head to head with PHI (but is well ahead in GD). So if SEA gets one more point, then PHI is out ... barring some crazy multi-way tie. (PHI is dead last in the three-way tiebreaker between SJE, SEA and PHI.)

 

Housekeeping

1) Just a quick update.

2) The chart is too big. (If it's screwy for you or you have to scroll sideways, please do let me know.) I have to make two sacrifices: the HD# and the AD#. But I'm keeping the HD#÷ and the AD#÷, which is fine because at this point with only a handful of games left the PPG numbers make the point just as well or even better.

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# WS# M#  T#  HD#÷  AD#÷[/U]
[COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  26  4  15  05  06  50  1.92  58  62  13  --  --  --  --    --
02  RSL  26  4  13  09  04  48  1.85  55  60  11  --  --  --  --    --[/COLOR]
03  FCD  26  4  11  13  02  46  1.77  53  58  09  --  03  20  --    --
04  CMB  26  4  13  06  07  45  1.73  52  57  08  --  04  19  --    0.27
05  NYR  26  4  13  05  08  44  1.69  51  56  07  --  05  18  --    0.50
06  COL  26  4  11  08  07  41  1.58  47  53  04  --  08  15  --    1.27
07  SJE  25  5  11  06  08  39  1.56  47  54  05  --  10  16  0.20  1.40
08  SEA  26  4  11  06  09  39  1.50  45  51  02  --  10  13  0.27  1.77
------------------------------------------------------------------------
09  KCW  25  5  09  06  10  33  1.32  40  48  --  --  16  10  1.40  2.60
10  TFC  26  4  08  07  11  31  1.19  36  43  --  --  18  05  2.27  3.77
11  CHI  25  5  07  08  10  29  1.16  35  44  --  02  20  06  2.20  3.40
12  PHI  26  4  07  06  13  27  1.04  31  39  --  04  22  01† 3.27  4.77
13  CDC  25  5  07  04  14  25  1.00  30  40  --  06  24  02  3.00  4.20
[COLOR="SlateGray"]14  HOU  26  4  07  05  14  26  1.00  30  38  --  05  23  --  --    --
15  NER  26  4  07  05  14  26  1.00  30  38  --  05  23  --  --    --
16  DCU  26  4  05  03  18  18  0.69  21  30  --  --‡ --  --  --    --
[/COLOR]
Current AD-Line: 46^[/B]

Code:

[B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1
WS# = Wooden Spoon Number = (16th Worst MPP) – PTS + 1
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
HD#÷ = HD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)
AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
AD#÷ = AD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)

- Sorted by PPG, then fewest GP, then alphabetical.**
- Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.[/B]

Asterisks

† PHI is barely clinging to life. In fact, they're basically being kept alive only by virtue of technicalities (GD isn't finalized yet) and doubt (maybe there's a 39 point multi-way tie where they do OK). As it is right now, they come in third in a 39 point three-way tie with SJE and SEA. Against SJE alone they lose the 39 point tie-breaker. Against SEA alone the tie-breaker goes to GD, which isn't settled so you can't decide the tie-breaker for certain yet (though PHI trails badly). This is all so technical and slim-chance-doubtful that it would not surprise me to see MLS (once again) shrug their shoulders and simply declare PHI eliminated from playoff contention. They've already done that once, albeit in the other direction (declaring RSL in the playoffs when they had not, in fact, technically clinched). All that said, a point lost by PHI and they're definitely out (T# = 1).

‡ DCU’s MPP currently sets the pace for this number. When a team sets the pace on this number its WS# (technically 13 in DCU’s case) is impossible to attain.

^ Set by SEA’s current 45 point (1.50 PPG) pace. See explanation linked in the box above.

** In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother.

Notes

CHI won tonight. But it almost doesn't even matter. CHI's MPP is 44. NYR stands at 44 currently, but CHI loses the tie-breaker against NYR. Casting aside doubts about multi-way ties (if MLS can do it, so can I), CHI cannot catch NYR. That leaves COL, SJE and SEA as the teams CHI can still hope to beat. To make the playoffs CHI needs one of those teams to collapse. Otherwise CHI simply cannot possibly make up the points (AD#÷ is 3.40). Even noting SJE's loss tonight, that's just not very likely. In other words, CHI could win its remaining 5 games and it's still not guaranteed a playoff spot. It's probably 50/50 that even winning out for 44 points would leave them just short or out on tie-breakers.

On other thing: with the exception of KCW, it is quite conceivable that every single team currently sitting in the bottom half of the table could be eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday.

 

I did some quick, back of the envelope projections that I'm posting here if only so I can look them up at the end of the season and see how totally wrong they were. They're at the bottom.

Code:

[B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule (Factoring Home and Away Performance)[/U]

Example: DCU’s strength of schedule = 
         Average of [COL HPPG, SJE APPG, CHI HPPG, TFC APPG]

RSL: 1.85
FCD: 1.63
KCW: 1.53
PHI: 1.49
COL: 1.45
NER: 1.41
LAG: 1.41
DCU: 1.39
CDC: 1.34
TFC: 1.28
CHI: 1.27
HOU: 1.26
CMB: 1.22
SJE: 1.15
SEA: 1.07
NYR: 1.05[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

[U]      WK27  WK28  WK29  WK30[/U]
CDC:   LAG   TFC  @SEA   SJE
      ----  ----  ----   CHI
CHI:  @FCD   CMB   KCW  @CDC
      ----  ----   DCU  ----
CMB:   SJE  @CHI  @TFC   PHI
COL:   DCU  @FCD  @LAG   RSL
DCU:  @COL   SJE  @CHI   TFC
FCD:   CHI   COL  @RSL  @LAG
HOU:  @PHI   NER  @SJE   SEA
KCW:  @NYR   SEA   CHI   SJE
      ----  ----  @NER  ----
LAG:  @CDC  @PHI   COL   FCD
NER:   RSL  @HOU   KCW  @NYR
NYR:   KCW   RSL  @PHI   NER
PHI:   HOU   LAG   NYR  @CMB
RSL:  @NER  @NYR   FCD  @COL
SEA:   TFC  @KCW   CDC  @HOU
SJE:  @CMB  @DCU   HOU   CDC
      ----  ----  ----  @KCW
TFC:  @SEA  @CDC   CMB  @DCU[/B]

Code:

[B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U]

[U]         HPPG         APPG[/U]
01  RSL  2.43    LAG  1.85
02  COL  2.15    FCD  1.54
03  CMB  2.15    SJE  1.50
04  NYR  2.08    SEA  1.38
05  FCD  2.00    NYR  1.36
06  LAG  2.00    CMB  1.31
07  PHI  1.67    RSL  1.17
08  TFC  1.64    CHI  1.08
09  KCW  1.62    COL  1.00
10  NER  1.62    KCW  1.00
11  SJE  1.62    TFC  0.67
12  SEA  1.62    CDC  0.62
13  CDC  1.42    DCU  0.62
14  HOU  1.38    HOU  0.62
15  CHI  1.25    PHI  0.50
16  DCU  0.77    NER  0.38[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Back Of The Envelope Projections[/U]  

[U]         UP  TP  OP  AP[/U]
01  LAG  58  59  56  57
02  RSL  55  56  55  56
03  FCD  53  54  53  53
04  CMB  52  53  50  52
05  NYR  51  52  48  50
06  COL  47  49  47  48
07  SJE  47  47  45  46
08  SEA  45  45  43  44
09  KCW  40  40  41  40
10  TFC  36  38  36  37
11  CHI  35  36  35  36
12  PHI  31  34  33  33
13  CDC  30  32  32  32
14  NER  30  32  32  32
15  HOU  30  30  31  31
16  DCU  21  20  24  22

Sorted by AP.[/B]

Code:

[B]UP = Unweighted Projection = PPG * 30 = PRJ in other charts
TP = Weighted Team Performance Projection = PTS + (HGR * HPPG) + (AGR * APPG)
OP = Weighted Opponent Performance Projection = PTS + (GR * SOS)
AP = Weighted Average Projection = (TP + OP) / 2

HGR: Home Games Remaining
AGR: Away Games Remaining
SOS: Strength of Schedule[/B]

This really is back of the envelope stuff. So take the numbers with a big grain of salt. The only thing that I thought was sort of interesting in an isn't that curious kind of way is the fact the order remains identical in all of them.

 

Housekeeping

Quick update now. Big update tomorrow. Not many notes and only one fun fact.

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# WS# M#  T#  HD#÷  AD#÷[/U]
[COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  26  4  15  05  06  50  1.92  58  62  12  --  --  --  --    --
02  RSL  27  3  14  09  04  51  1.89  57  60  10  --  --  --  --    --
03  FCD  27  3  12  13  02  49  1.81  54  58  08  --  --  --  --    --
04  NYR  27  3  14  05  08  47  1.74  52  56  06  --  --  --  --    --
05  CMB  27  3  13  07  07  46  1.70  51  55  05  --  --  --  --    --[/COLOR]
06  SEA  27  3  12  06  09  42  1.56  47  51  01  --  04  12  --    1.53
07  SJE  26  4  11  07  08  40  1.54  46  52  02  --  06  13  --    1.67
08  COL  27  3  11  08  08  41  1.52  46  50  --  --  05  11  --    1.87
------------------------------------------------------------------------
09  KCW  26  4  09  06  11  33  1.27  38  45  --  --  13  06  1.77  3.40
10  TFC  27  3  08  07  12  31  1.15  34  40  --  --  15  01† 3.00  5.20
11  CHI  26  4  07  08  11  29  1.12  33  41  --  02  17  02  2.77  4.40
[COLOR="SlateGray"]12  PHI  27  3  07  07  13  28  1.04  31  37  --  03  --  --  --    --[/COLOR]
13  CDC  25  5  07  04  14  25  1.00  30  40  --  06  21  01† 3.00  4.33
[COLOR="SlateGray"]14  NER  27  3  07  06  14  27  1.00  30  36  --  04  --  --  --    --
15  HOU  27  3  07  05  15  26  0.96  29  35  --  05  --  --  --    --
16  DCU  27  3  06  03  18  21  0.78  23  30  --  --‡ --  --  --    --[/COLOR]

Current AD-Line: 47^[/B]

Code:

[B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1
WS# = Wooden Spoon Number = (16th Worst MPP) – PTS + 1
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
HD#÷ = HD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)
AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
AD#÷ = AD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)

- Sorted by PPG, then fewest GP, then alphabetical.**
- Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.[/B

Asterisks

† TFC and CDC remain playoff viable, but only barely. TFC's tiebreaker with SJE goes to GD, which is unsettled. And CDC's tiebreaker with SJE is unsettled because one game remains.

‡ DCU’s MPP currently sets the pace for this number. When a team sets the pace on this number its WS# (technically 10 in DCU’s case) is impossible to attain.

^ Set by COL’s current 46 point (1.52 PPG) pace. See explanation linked in the box above.

** In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother.

Notes

A whole bunch of teams have clinched tonight. And one more team is out (PHI). And three teams (TFC, CHI and CDC) are sending flowers to SJE to thank them for drawing CMB. Because if SJE had won, they'd all be out too (if I recall the CHI tiebreakers correctly). Not that any of them are terribly alive. Meanwhile, despite another loss, KCW somehow manages to survive another week. Fun fact: with today's win over COL, DCU has become the only team in the league whose away record is stronger than its home record: HPPG=0.77, APPG=0.79. Tremble at our might!
.

 

Yes. Less parity. I'm gonna post something about this tomorrow.