Kansas city needs to win 4 of their last 5 barring major meltdowns by seattle or colorado. At new york it'll be a tough game, as will at home vs seattle and san jose.
In doing the calculations did you make sure that all the teams ahead of KC that didn't end at 48 points actually were above that number. That'd be my only caveat. RSL might actually lose a 4-way tiebreaker, but if one of the intervening teams fails to get to 48 points due to games played against teams getting exactly to 48, then the point would be moot, and RSL would mathematically be qualified.
We did it based on a specific situation where Seattle, KC, RSL, and Colorado all ended on 48 (which is possible). There may be other situations, but we figured we just had to check one.
I ought to post this before it becomes outdated tonight. Code: [B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule (Factoring Home and Away Performance)[/U] Example: DCU’s strength of schedule = Average of [COL HPPG, SJE APPG, CHI HPPG, TFC APPG] RSL: 1.830 PHI: 1.611 FCD: 1.586 KCW: 1.500 NER: 1.409 LAG: 1.405 DCU: 1.375 CHI: 1.348 CDC: 1.309 HOU: 1.296 TFC: 1.277 COL: 1.264 CMB: 1.233 SJE: 1.114 SEA: 1.071 NYR: 1.054[/B] For reference: Code: [B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U] [U] HPPG APPG[/U] 01 RSL 2.43 01 LAG 1.85 02 CMB 2.15 02 FCD 1.54 03 NYR 2.08 03 SJE 1.50 04 COL 2.08 04 SEA 1.38 05 LAG 2.00 05 NYR 1.36 06 FCD 2.00 06 CMB 1.31 07 SJE 1.75 07 RSL 1.17 08 PHI 1.67 08 COL 1.00 09 TFC 1.64 09 KCW 1.00 10 SEA 1.62 10 CHI 0.92 11 KCW 1.62 11 TFC 0.67 12 NER 1.62 12 CDC 0.62 13 CDC 1.42 13 HOU 0.62 14 HOU 1.38 14 DCU 0.62 15 CHI 1.25 15 PHI 0.54 16 DCU 0.77 16 NER 0.38[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U] [U] WK27 WK28 WK29 WK30[/U] CDC: LAG TFC @SEA SJE ---- ---- ---- CHI CHI: @SJE CMB KCW @CDC @FCD ---- DCU ---- CMB: SJE @CHI @TFC PHI COL: PHI @FCD @LAG RSL DCU ---- ---- ---- DCU: @COL SJE @CHI TFC FCD: CHI COL @RSL @LAG HOU: @PHI NER @SJE SEA KCW: @NYR SEA CHI SJE ---- ---- @NER ---- LAG: @CDC @PHI COL FCD NER: RSL @HOU KCW @NYR NYR: KCW RSL @PHI NER PHI: @COL LAG NYR @CMB HOU ---- ---- ---- RSL: @NER @NYR FCD @COL SEA: TFC @KCW CDC @HOU SJE: CHI @DCU HOU CDC @CMB ---- ---- @KCW TFC: @SEA @CDC CMB @DCU[/B]
Here is one scenario: 1. LAG = 50+ points 2. CLB ( defeat two of CHI, TFC, PHI) = 51+ points 3. FCD (defeat COR) = 49+ points 4. NYR (defeat RSL and either PHI or NER) = 50+ points 5. SJE (defeat four of CHI, CLB, DCU, HOU, CHV) = 51+ points 6. SEA (defeat TFC, CHV, HOU) = 48 points 7. COR (defeat PHI, DCU, RSL, and tie LAG) = 48 points 8. KCW (defeat NYR, SEA, CHI, NER, SJE) = 48 points 9. RSL ( lose to NER, NYR, FCD, COR) = 48 points There are no conflicts in this scenario.
Here's a summary of one event clinches/elimination (meaning if one result happens, then a team qualifies/is eliminated) RSL qualfies if: They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR KC does not win every one of their remaining games; OR Seattle loses any game (except versus KC)* *As the highest minimum total both teams could reach would be 46 points (as they play each other). FCD qualfies if: They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR KC does not win every one of their remaining games New York qualifies if they defeat KC* * as they're guaranteed at least second in the East in this scenario Chivas is eliminated if they do not win all of their remaining games Philly is eliminated if they do not win all of their remaining games
I was thinking earlier that they are already out. And it would not actually surprise me if MLS declared them out in the morning. But they are still in by a fingernail. SJE owns the head-to-head against PHI. SEA split their head to head with PHI (but is well ahead in GD). So if SEA gets one more point, then PHI is out ... barring some crazy multi-way tie. (PHI is dead last in the three-way tiebreaker between SJE, SEA and PHI.)
Well, Philly's in really rough shape, then. I should go to bed, so I won't do the permutations, but the chances of them making it are ridiculously small. No matter what, Philly has to hope that either Seattle or San Jose loses out. But in both situations, that means KC gets at least one win, which puts them at 36 and just as likely to join the fray. And Philly only got 1 point out of KC. For KC to not join / surpass 39 points while getting a win against either Seattle or San Jose, they would have to tie / lose to Chicago, which would get Chicago closer to that 39 point mark as well. Philly and Chicago split points. Is it still technically possible for them to make it? I think so, but out of the hundreds of possible results in the remaining games, they'd be hanging their hopes on a very specific (and very unlikely) combination.
Is this more accurate? Kansas City must win out, meaning a victory over Seattle. That means Seattle would be at 39 points with 3 games remaining. In order for Seattle to match RSL at 48, they have to win all of the other games.
Housekeeping 1) Just a quick update. 2) The chart is too big. (If it's screwy for you or you have to scroll sideways, please do let me know.) I have to make two sacrifices: the HD# and the AD#. But I'm keeping the HD#÷ and the AD#÷, which is fine because at this point with only a handful of games left the PPG numbers make the point just as well or even better. Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP SE# WS# M# T# HD#÷ AD#÷[/U] [COLOR="Blue"]01 LAG 26 4 15 05 06 50 1.92 58 62 13 -- -- -- -- -- 02 RSL 26 4 13 09 04 48 1.85 55 60 11 -- -- -- -- --[/COLOR] 03 FCD 26 4 11 13 02 46 1.77 53 58 09 -- 03 20 -- -- 04 CMB 26 4 13 06 07 45 1.73 52 57 08 -- 04 19 -- 0.27 05 NYR 26 4 13 05 08 44 1.69 51 56 07 -- 05 18 -- 0.50 06 COL 26 4 11 08 07 41 1.58 47 53 04 -- 08 15 -- 1.27 07 SJE 25 5 11 06 08 39 1.56 47 54 05 -- 10 16 0.20 1.40 08 SEA 26 4 11 06 09 39 1.50 45 51 02 -- 10 13 0.27 1.77 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 09 KCW 25 5 09 06 10 33 1.32 40 48 -- -- 16 10 1.40 2.60 10 TFC 26 4 08 07 11 31 1.19 36 43 -- -- 18 05 2.27 3.77 11 CHI 25 5 07 08 10 29 1.16 35 44 -- 02 20 06 2.20 3.40 12 PHI 26 4 07 06 13 27 1.04 31 39 -- 04 22 01† 3.27 4.77 13 CDC 25 5 07 04 14 25 1.00 30 40 -- 06 24 02 3.00 4.20 [COLOR="SlateGray"]14 HOU 26 4 07 05 14 26 1.00 30 38 -- 05 23 -- -- -- 15 NER 26 4 07 05 14 26 1.00 30 38 -- 05 23 -- -- -- 16 DCU 26 4 05 03 18 18 0.69 21 30 -- --‡ -- -- -- -- [/COLOR] Current AD-Line: 46^[/B] Code: [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 WS# = Wooden Spoon Number = (16th Worst MPP) – PTS + 1 M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1 HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL] HD#÷ = HD#/30 (i.e. in PPG) AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL] AD#÷ = AD#/30 (i.e. in PPG) - Sorted by PPG, then fewest GP, then alphabetical.** - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot. - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs. - Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.[/B] Asterisks † PHI is barely clinging to life. In fact, they're basically being kept alive only by virtue of technicalities (GD isn't finalized yet) and doubt (maybe there's a 39 point multi-way tie where they do OK). As it is right now, they come in third in a 39 point three-way tie with SJE and SEA. Against SJE alone they lose the 39 point tie-breaker. Against SEA alone the tie-breaker goes to GD, which isn't settled so you can't decide the tie-breaker for certain yet (though PHI trails badly). This is all so technical and slim-chance-doubtful that it would not surprise me to see MLS (once again) shrug their shoulders and simply declare PHI eliminated from playoff contention. They've already done that once, albeit in the other direction (declaring RSL in the playoffs when they had not, in fact, technically clinched). All that said, a point lost by PHI and they're definitely out (T# = 1). ‡ DCU’s MPP currently sets the pace for this number. When a team sets the pace on this number its WS# (technically 13 in DCU’s case) is impossible to attain. ^ Set by SEA’s current 45 point (1.50 PPG) pace. See explanation linked in the box above. ** In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother. Notes CHI won tonight. But it almost doesn't even matter. CHI's MPP is 44. NYR stands at 44 currently, but CHI loses the tie-breaker against NYR. Casting aside doubts about multi-way ties (if MLS can do it, so can I), CHI cannot catch NYR. That leaves COL, SJE and SEA as the teams CHI can still hope to beat. To make the playoffs CHI needs one of those teams to collapse. Otherwise CHI simply cannot possibly make up the points (AD#÷ is 3.40). Even noting SJE's loss tonight, that's just not very likely. In other words, CHI could win its remaining 5 games and it's still not guaranteed a playoff spot. It's probably 50/50 that even winning out for 44 points would leave them just short or out on tie-breakers. On other thing: with the exception of KCW, it is quite conceivable that every single team currently sitting in the bottom half of the table could be eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday.
I did some quick, back of the envelope projections that I'm posting here if only so I can look them up at the end of the season and see how totally wrong they were. They're at the bottom. Code: [B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule (Factoring Home and Away Performance)[/U] Example: DCU’s strength of schedule = Average of [COL HPPG, SJE APPG, CHI HPPG, TFC APPG] RSL: 1.85 FCD: 1.63 KCW: 1.53 PHI: 1.49 COL: 1.45 NER: 1.41 LAG: 1.41 DCU: 1.39 CDC: 1.34 TFC: 1.28 CHI: 1.27 HOU: 1.26 CMB: 1.22 SJE: 1.15 SEA: 1.07 NYR: 1.05[/B] Code: [B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U] [U] WK27 WK28 WK29 WK30[/U] CDC: LAG TFC @SEA SJE ---- ---- ---- CHI CHI: @FCD CMB KCW @CDC ---- ---- DCU ---- CMB: SJE @CHI @TFC PHI COL: DCU @FCD @LAG RSL DCU: @COL SJE @CHI TFC FCD: CHI COL @RSL @LAG HOU: @PHI NER @SJE SEA KCW: @NYR SEA CHI SJE ---- ---- @NER ---- LAG: @CDC @PHI COL FCD NER: RSL @HOU KCW @NYR NYR: KCW RSL @PHI NER PHI: HOU LAG NYR @CMB RSL: @NER @NYR FCD @COL SEA: TFC @KCW CDC @HOU SJE: @CMB @DCU HOU CDC ---- ---- ---- @KCW TFC: @SEA @CDC CMB @DCU[/B] Code: [B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U] [U] HPPG APPG[/U] 01 RSL 2.43 LAG 1.85 02 COL 2.15 FCD 1.54 03 CMB 2.15 SJE 1.50 04 NYR 2.08 SEA 1.38 05 FCD 2.00 NYR 1.36 06 LAG 2.00 CMB 1.31 07 PHI 1.67 RSL 1.17 08 TFC 1.64 CHI 1.08 09 KCW 1.62 COL 1.00 10 NER 1.62 KCW 1.00 11 SJE 1.62 TFC 0.67 12 SEA 1.62 CDC 0.62 13 CDC 1.42 DCU 0.62 14 HOU 1.38 HOU 0.62 15 CHI 1.25 PHI 0.50 16 DCU 0.77 NER 0.38[/B] Code: [B][U]Back Of The Envelope Projections[/U] [U] UP TP OP AP[/U] 01 LAG 58 59 56 57 02 RSL 55 56 55 56 03 FCD 53 54 53 53 04 CMB 52 53 50 52 05 NYR 51 52 48 50 06 COL 47 49 47 48 07 SJE 47 47 45 46 08 SEA 45 45 43 44 09 KCW 40 40 41 40 10 TFC 36 38 36 37 11 CHI 35 36 35 36 12 PHI 31 34 33 33 13 CDC 30 32 32 32 14 NER 30 32 32 32 15 HOU 30 30 31 31 16 DCU 21 20 24 22 Sorted by AP.[/B] Code: [B]UP = Unweighted Projection = PPG * 30 = PRJ in other charts TP = Weighted Team Performance Projection = PTS + (HGR * HPPG) + (AGR * APPG) OP = Weighted Opponent Performance Projection = PTS + (GR * SOS) AP = Weighted Average Projection = (TP + OP) / 2 HGR: Home Games Remaining AGR: Away Games Remaining SOS: Strength of Schedule[/B] This really is back of the envelope stuff. So take the numbers with a big grain of salt. The only thing that I thought was sort of interesting in an isn't that curious kind of way is the fact the order remains identical in all of them.
The 50/50 version of Sports Club Stats (where the simulations are run without any weighting for team strength) has RSL missing the playoffs in 1 out of 10,000,000 simulations. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS2.html
I made some edits to the list. I re-checked the numbers, Philly's only chance of going through is on a tiebreak with Seattle (a tiebreak with San Jose would not work). RSL qualfies if: They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR KC does not win every one of their remaining games; OR Seattle fails to win any game, except the KC game; OR *As the highest minimum total both teams could reach would be 46 points (as they play each other). FCD qualfies if: They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR KC does not win every one of their remaining games New York qualifies if they defeat KC* * as they're guaranteed at least second in the East in this scenario Chivas is eliminated if they do not win all of their remaining games Philly is eliminated if they do not win all of their remaining games; OR Seattle fails to lose any of its remaining games
Seattle 3 Toronto 2. Philly is eliminated, as they cannot have the h2h winning record necessary against San Jose, Chicago, or Kansas City.* Though TO and Chivas can both finish on 40 points, neither can finish on 39 points.
Revised one scenario qualfications: RSL qualfies if: They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR KC does not win every one of their remaining games; OR Seattle fails to win any game, except the KC game; OR *As the highest minimum total both teams could reach would be 46 points (as they play each other). FCD qualfies if: They do not lose every one of their remaining games; OR KC does not win every one of their remaining games New York qualifies if they defeat KC* * as they're guaranteed at least second in the East in this scenario Chivas is eliminated if: they do not win all of their remaining games; OR San Jose wins any of their remaining games Toronto FC is eliminated if: they do not win all of their remaining games; OR San Jose wins any of their remaining games
Qualfied list and revised one result scenario qualfications: Qualfied: LAG RSL New York Columbus Dallas Eliminated: DCU NER HOU PHI Chivas is eliminated if: they do not win all of their remaining games; OR San Jose do not lose all of their remaining games Toronto FC is eliminated if: they do not win all of their remaining games; OR San Jose do not lose all of their remaining games
Housekeeping Quick update now. Big update tomorrow. Not many notes and only one fun fact. Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP SE# WS# M# T# HD#÷ AD#÷[/U] [COLOR="Blue"]01 LAG 26 4 15 05 06 50 1.92 58 62 12 -- -- -- -- -- 02 RSL 27 3 14 09 04 51 1.89 57 60 10 -- -- -- -- -- 03 FCD 27 3 12 13 02 49 1.81 54 58 08 -- -- -- -- -- 04 NYR 27 3 14 05 08 47 1.74 52 56 06 -- -- -- -- -- 05 CMB 27 3 13 07 07 46 1.70 51 55 05 -- -- -- -- --[/COLOR] 06 SEA 27 3 12 06 09 42 1.56 47 51 01 -- 04 12 -- 1.53 07 SJE 26 4 11 07 08 40 1.54 46 52 02 -- 06 13 -- 1.67 08 COL 27 3 11 08 08 41 1.52 46 50 -- -- 05 11 -- 1.87 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 09 KCW 26 4 09 06 11 33 1.27 38 45 -- -- 13 06 1.77 3.40 10 TFC 27 3 08 07 12 31 1.15 34 40 -- -- 15 01† 3.00 5.20 11 CHI 26 4 07 08 11 29 1.12 33 41 -- 02 17 02 2.77 4.40 [COLOR="SlateGray"]12 PHI 27 3 07 07 13 28 1.04 31 37 -- 03 -- -- -- --[/COLOR] 13 CDC 25 5 07 04 14 25 1.00 30 40 -- 06 21 01† 3.00 4.33 [COLOR="SlateGray"]14 NER 27 3 07 06 14 27 1.00 30 36 -- 04 -- -- -- -- 15 HOU 27 3 07 05 15 26 0.96 29 35 -- 05 -- -- -- -- 16 DCU 27 3 06 03 18 21 0.78 23 30 -- --‡ -- -- -- --[/COLOR] Current AD-Line: 47^[/B] Code: [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 WS# = Wooden Spoon Number = (16th Worst MPP) – PTS + 1 M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1 HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL] HD#÷ = HD#/30 (i.e. in PPG) AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL] AD#÷ = AD#/30 (i.e. in PPG) - Sorted by PPG, then fewest GP, then alphabetical.** - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot. - Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs. - Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.[/B Asterisks † TFC and CDC remain playoff viable, but only barely. TFC's tiebreaker with SJE goes to GD, which is unsettled. And CDC's tiebreaker with SJE is unsettled because one game remains. ‡ DCU’s MPP currently sets the pace for this number. When a team sets the pace on this number its WS# (technically 10 in DCU’s case) is impossible to attain. ^ Set by COL’s current 46 point (1.52 PPG) pace. See explanation linked in the box above. ** In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother. Notes A whole bunch of teams have clinched tonight. And one more team is out (PHI). And three teams (TFC, CHI and CDC) are sending flowers to SJE to thank them for drawing CMB. Because if SJE had won, they'd all be out too (if I recall the CHI tiebreakers correctly). Not that any of them are terribly alive. Meanwhile, despite another loss, KCW somehow manages to survive another week. Fun fact: with today's win over COL, DCU has become the only team in the league whose away record is stronger than its home record: HPPG=0.77, APPG=0.79. Tremble at our might! .
Qualfied list and revised one result scenario qualfications: Qualfied: LAG RSL New York Columbus Dallas Eliminated: DCU NER HOU PHI Seattle qualifies if: they win any remaining game; OR they tie kc Chivas is eliminated if: they do not win all of their remaining games; OR San Jose do not lose all of their remaining games Toronto FC is eliminated if: they do not win all of their remaining games; OR San Jose do not lose all of their remaining games Chicago is eliminated if: they do not win all of their remaining games; OR San Jose wins any of their remaining games
I love the job your doing here Knave & Co. I am noticing that this season, as opposed to last season, is going to have less complicated ending. RSL won't have to depend on 4 or 5 result for it to come in. It doesn't seem that any team trying to come in will have to face any super complex playoff entrance picture. Less parity I am guessing. Regardless, the intensity feels a lot higher this season.
I think Seattle only needs a draw. They beat KC earlier this year, so a draw gives them the tiebreaker if they both ended up on 43 (which would be the worst Seattle could do and the best KC could do if they draw). But then, I'm ignoring possible 3 or 4 way scenarios with San Jose and Colorado, so you could be right.
Seattle would win the first leg of a three or four way tie. Then the remaining teams would go to goal difference or, if Colorado is involved, KC would win for the remaining three spots. So basically, you're right, it would clinch it for Seattle, but it would not eliminate KC.
Seattle is pretty much eliminated from the Supporter's Shield race. While we can catch RSL on 51 points, the tiebreak would go to GD, where RSL has a +20 advantage. We'd have to win all our remaining matches by 3-4 goals AND have RSL lose all their matches by the same margin to make up the difference. Not likely to happen.
The battle for places 6 through 8 pretty interesting. KC has a chance to sneak in to #8. They have four games remaining, none of which re particularly awful for them, including three at home. KC has an added bonus of facing both Seattle and San Jose which would be great victories for the Wizards since it would double as loss for their rivals. Other games are at New England and home to Chicago. KC could definitely finish up strongly. However, their margin of error is so small as to be ridiculous. Let's say KC gets 8 to 10 points to finish the season. Technically that would do the trick, but would also requires a total collapse of one of three teams ahead of them. Certainly do-able, but not very likely. Certainly losing 1-0 to New York doesn't build much confidence. I don't think San Jose is going to be very cooperative towards KC's ambitions. San Jose has a similarly easy schedule, finishing up with @DC, Houston, Chivas USA and at Kansas City. That's the four-course road-kill special. Seriously, San Jose can suck it for the four final games, and still manage to bag, say 4 points. Seattle is up two points on San Jose (and nine on Kansas City) with three to go, but their schedule sets up like a fluffer for Wilt Chamberlin. Too easy: At Kansas City, Civas and at Houston. I guess two road games will be challenging, but if Seattle doesn't get 3 points over these games, the don't deserve the playoffs. Now, Colorado is in a bit of a pickle. Inexplicably, the lost to DC Unfried at home. Crazy. Now they have three to play @Dallas, @LA & home to RSL. I wouldn't be totally surprised if Colorado gains a grand total of zero points to end the season. The question is whether KC can gain eight or nine points in their last four to overtake the Pids. It would be kinda cool if they finished even on points, then battled in a play-in game for that 8th playoff spot. (I know its not in the rules.) Here's my prediction: San Jose 48 points (face LA in playoffs) Seattle 47 points (face NY in playoffs) Colorado 44 points (face Columbus in playoffs) This is for another post, but think Columbus eases past NY for the top spot in the east.