The 2010 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Numerical Arcana of Dubious Value [R]

Because they're all tied on overall points. 7 is just on head-to-head. But since head-to-head fails to advance a winner, the question is whether all 4 teams then move onto the GD tie-breaker, which the Mutiny in this scenario win.

I understand that's what he said. But you do see it doesn't accord exactly with the "ties remain intact until a team is advances" stuff. If the tie is intact, then the Mutiny move on with the three other teams. If they don't, then the tie does not remain intact.

I'm not saying you're wrong, just that things still aren't perfectly clear here. And they should be. Hopefully we can find someone who can cut through all this confusion and give us a definite answer.

 

I'm flummoxed too. So I'm pushing for as definite an answer as I can, and I'm trying to determine how definite people are and why. I'm sorry if you find that adversarial. It wasn't my intention. I don't have a horse in this race. I just want as crystal clear and as definitive an answer as I can get as to which horse actually won.

Let me ask everyone this. According to the consensus on this thread, is this correct, not just in the final order, but in the way the tie-breakers function?

Code:

[B][U]First Tie-Breaking Round[/U]

         Clash   Metros  Fusion  Mutiny  Total
Clash    -----   1-0-1   1-0-1   0-2-0   2-2-2
Metros   1-0-1   -----   1-1-0   0-1-1   2-2-2
Fusion   1-0-1   0-1-1   -----   1-1-0   2-2-2
Mutiny   0-2-0   1-1-0   0-1-1   -----   1-4-1

         W   D   L   PTS PPG    GD   GF
Fusion   2   2   2   8   1.33   +3   25
Metros   2   2   2   8   1.33   +2   30
Clash    2   2   2   8   1.33   +1   35
Mutiny   1   4   1   7   1.17   +4   20

Final Mutiny ranking determined by PPG. All other final rankings by GD. 
Fusion advances on GD.

[U]Second Tie-Breaking Round[/U]

         Clash   Metros  Mutiny  Total
Clash    -----   1-0-1   0-2-0   1-2-1
Metros   1-0-1   -----   0-1-1   1-1-2
Mutiny   0-2-0   1-1-0   -----   1-3-0

         W   D   L   PTS PPG   GD   GF
Mutiny   1   3   0   6   1.5   +4   20
Metros   1   2   1   5   1.25  +2   30
Clash    1   1   2   4   1     +1   35

All final rankings on PPG. Mutiny advance on PPG. 

[U]Third Tie-Breaking Round[/U]

         Clash   Metros  Total 
Clash    -----   1-0-1   1-0-1
Metros   1-0-1   -----   1-0-1

        W   D   L   PTS  PPG   GD   GF
Metros  1   0   1   3    1.5   +2   30
Clash   1   0   1   3    1.5   +1   35

All final rankings on GD. Metros advance on GD. 

[U]Final Ranking[/U] 

Fusion 
Mutiny
Metros
Clash[/B]

 

I wasn't quick enough!

edit ... or accurate enough in the correction. I think it's OK now.

 

OK. I'm going with that until someone tells me otherwise. And if I can find additional confirmation, even better.

 

Housekeeping

I added in some numbers and had to split some tables up. Might be a one-time deal. Might be permanent. We'll see.

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# WS# M#  T#[/U]
[COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  26  4  15  05  06  50  1.92  58  62  13  --  --  --[/COLOR]
02  RSL  26  4  13  09  04  48  1.85  55  60  11  --  01* 23
03  FCD  26  4  11  13  02  46  1.77  53  58  09  --  03  21
04  CMB  26  4  13  06  07  45  1.73  52  57  08  --  04  20
05  NYR  26  4  13  05  08  44  1.69  51  56  07  --  05  19
06  SJE  24  6  11  06  07  39  1.63  49  57  08  --  10  20
07  COL  25  5  10  08  07  38  1.52  46  53  04  --  11  16
08  SEA  26  4  11  06  09  39  1.50  45  51  02  --  10  14
------------------------------------------------------------
09  KCW  25  5  09  06  10  33  1.32  40  48  --  --  16  11
10  TFC  26  4  08  07  11  31  1.19  36  43  --  --  18  06
11  CHI  24  6  06  08  10  26  1.08  33  44  --  05  23  07
12  PHI  25  5  07  06  12  27  1.08  32  42  --  04  22  05
13  CDC  25  5  07  04  14  25  1.00  30  40  --  06  24  03
[COLOR="SlateGray"]14  HOU  26  4  07  05  14  26  1.00  30  38  --  05  --  01†
15  NER  26  4  07  05  14  26  1.00  30  38  --  05  --  01†
16  DCU  26  4  05  03  18  18  0.69  21  30  --  --‡ --  --[/COLOR][/B]

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP HD# HD#÷  AD#  AD#÷[/U]
[COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  26  4  15  05  06  50  1.92  58  62  --  --    --   --[/COLOR]
02  RSL  26  4  13  09  04  48  1.85  55  60  --  --    --   --
03  FCD  26  4  11  13  02  46  1.77  53  58  --  --    --   --
04  CMB  26  4  13  06  07  45  1.73  52  57  --  --    08   0.27
05  NYR  26  4  13  05  08  44  1.69  51  56  --  --    15   0.50
06  SJE  24  6  11  06  07  39  1.63  49  57  05  0.17  35   1.17
07  COL  25  5  10  08  07  38  1.52  46  53  12  0.40  48   1.60
08  SEA  26  4  11  06  09  39  1.50  45  51  08  0.27  53   1.77
-----------------------------------------------------------------
09  KCW  25  5  09  06  10  33  1.32  40  48  42  1.40  78   2.60
10  TFC  26  4  08  07  11  31  1.19  36  43  68  2.27  113  3.77
11  CHI  24  6  06  08  10  26  1.08  33  44  70  2.33  100  3.33
12  PHI  25  5  07  06  12  27  1.08  32  42  78  2.60  114  3.80
13  CDC  25  5  07  04  14  25  1.00  30  40  90  3.00  126  4.20
[COLOR="SlateGray"]14  HOU  26  4  07  05  14  26  1.00  30  38  --  --    --   --
15  NER  26  4  07  05  14  26  1.00  30  38  --  --    --   --
16  DCU  26  4  05  03  18  18  0.69  21  30  --  --    --   --[/COLOR]

Current AD-Line: 46^[/B]

Code:

[B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1
WS# = Wooden Spoon Number = (16th Worst MPP) – PTS + 1
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
HD#÷ = HD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)
AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21809605&postcount=1"]Full explanation.[/URL]
AD#÷ = AD#/30 (i.e. in PPG)

- Sorted by PPG, then fewest GP, then alphabetical.**
- Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="SeaGreen"]green[/COLOR] are conference champions.[/B]

Asterisks

* RSL has not technically clinched. See notes and discussion above.

† HOU and NER have been eliminated. Notes and discussion above explained why this is, and also cast some doubts on it. MLS, however, has now deemed both NER and HOU out of playoff contention, which settles the matter.

‡ DCU’s MPP currently sets the pace for this number. When a team sets the pace on this number its WS# (technically 13 in DCU’s case) is impossible to attain.

^ Set by SEA’s current 45 point (1.50 PPG) pace. See explanation linked above and discussion below.

** In the final weeks MLS tie-breakers will replace the final alphabetical sort. But until the final weeks it's seriously not worth the bother.

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
01  LAG  26  50  13  13  8  2  3  7  3  3  -02
02  RSL  26  48  14  12  10 4  0  3  5  4  -06
03  FCD  26  46  13  13  7  5  1  4  8  1  -06
04  NYR  26  44  12  14  8  1  3  5  4  5  -06
05  CMB  26  45  13  13  9  1  3  4  5  4  -07
06  SJE  24  39  12  12  6  3  3  5  3  4  -09
07  COL  25  38  12  13  7  4  1  3  4  6  -11
08  SEA  26  39  13  13  6  3  4  5  3  5  -13
09  KCW  25  33  13  12  6  3  4  3  3  6  -18
10  CHI  24  26  12  12  3  6  3  3  2  7  -22
11  PHI  25  27  12  13  5  5  2  2  1  10 -22
12  TFC  26  31  14  12  6  5  3  2  2  8  -23
13  CDC  25  25  12  13  5  2  5  2  2  9  -24
14  HOU  26  26  13  13  5  3  5  2  2  9  -26
15  NER  26  26  13  13  6  3  4  1  2  10 -26
16  DCU  26  18  13  13  3  1  9  2  2  9  -34

Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PPG.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U]

[U]         HPPG             APPG[/U]
01  RSL  2.43    01  LAG  1.85
02  CMB  2.15    02  FCD  1.54
03  NYR  2.08    03  SJE  1.50
04  COL  2.08    04  SEA  1.38
05  LAG  2.00    05  NYR  1.36
06  FCD  2.00    06  CMB  1.31
07  SJE  1.75    07  RSL  1.17
08  PHI  1.67    08  COL  1.00
09  TFC  1.64    09  KCW  1.00
10  SEA  1.62    10  CHI  0.92
11  KCW  1.62    11  TFC  0.67
12  NER  1.62    12  CDC  0.62
13  CDC  1.42    13  HOU  0.62
14  HOU  1.38    14  DCU  0.62
15  CHI  1.25    15  PHI  0.54
16  DCU  0.77    16  NER  0.38[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

[U]      WK27  WK28  WK29  WK30[/U]
CDC:   LAG   TFC  @SEA   SJE
      ----  ----  ----   CHI
CHI:  @SJE   CMB   KCW  @CDC
      @FCD  ----   DCU  ----
CMB:   SJE  @CHI  @TFC   PHI
COL:   PHI  @FCD  @LAG   RSL
       DCU  ----  ----  ----
DCU:  @COL   SJE  @CHI   TFC
FCD:   CHI   COL  @RSL  @LAG
HOU:  @PHI   NER  @SJE   SEA
KCW:  @NYR   SEA   CHI   SJE
      ----  ----  @NER  ----
LAG:  @CDC  @PHI   COL   FCD
NER:   RSL  @HOU   KCW  @NYR
NYR:   KCW   RSL  @PHI   NER
PHI:  @COL   LAG   NYR  @CMB
       HOU  ----  ----  ----
RSL:  @NER  @NYR   FCD  @COL
SEA:   TFC  @KCW   CDC  @HOU
SJE:   CHI  @DCU   HOU   CDC
      @CMB  ----  ----  @KCW
TFC:  @SEA  @CDC   CMB  @DCU[/B]

Code:

[B][U]MLS Numbers Resources[/U]

[URL="http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html"]SportsClubStats[/URL]
[URL="http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/soccer.htm"]Sagarin's MLS Ratings[/URL]
[URL="http://playoffstatus.com/mls/mls.html"]PlayoffStatus[/URL]
[URL="http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/"]Climbing The Ladder[/URL]
[URL="http://www.settingthetable.info/home.asp"]Setting The Table[/URL]
[URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/content/2010-playoff-standings"]MLSSoccer's Playoff Table[/URL]
[URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/playoff-format"]MLS Playoff Tiebreakers[/URL]
[URL="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/tables?league=usa.1&cc=5901"]ESPN Soccernet's MLS Table[/URL] 

Please suggest others.[/B]

Notes

When I started this thread I mentioned that I had been tracking two numbers in connection with DCU’s terrible season. The first was the 40 point, Historical Despair Number (HD#) that I’ve been highlighting here as something of a lower-minimum for playoff viability. And the second was something I called the Actual Despair Number (AD#), and in the initial post I said I did not intend to talk about it here unless it actually added something to the discussion. As I explained:

The moment has changed. And maybe the league has changed. The old 40 point rule of thumb seems to be falling by the wayside in a league with greater and greater disparity between the top and the bottom of the table. The disparity that I highlighted a while back is only increasing (though only by a bit). The 8th place team is currently outpacing the 40 point threshold by 5 points. And this is not a passing phenomenon. The 8th place team has consistently outpaced the 40 point threshold by smaller or larger margins since May. With 4 weeks left to go, it does not look like 40 points will be the lower-minimum for playoff viability this year (though you never know for certain).

As such the critical question would seem to be not the pace a team must attain for the remainder of the season to meet the 40 point threshold (the HD#), but the pace a team must attain for the remainder of the season to outpace and thus beat the current 8th place team's actual pace (the AD#).

And the AD#’s tell a pretty devastating story for all the bottom half of the table teams not called KCW.

TFC, CHI, PHI and CDC cannot possibly beat SEA, or any other potential 45 point pace 8th place team. They cannot make up the points to match that sort of pace even if they won every single one of their remaining games. Even if that pace slows, you're only moving from totally impossible to practically impossible. In other words, for TFC, CHI, PHI and CDC their playoff fate is totally out of their control. They need SEA or COL or even SJE to have a meltdown. In effect, they all need a total change in the playoff outlook. Otherwise they are, as I like to say, toast.

Only KCW remains viable, but that viability is teetering on the edge. KCW’s playoff fate is very, very close to slipping out of its control as well. They must win this week against NYR if they want to retain any chance at all. That’s the only way for them to remain truthfully viable into the SEA game, and that game really is their last possible playoff stand.

The DC United Dungeon of Doom & Doggies!

I am, quite unhappily, combining my much anticipated discussion of the race for the revered Wooden Spoon with my old, holdover discussion of the trials and tribulations of the disaster that is the 2010 DCU.

Let us not dwell on what might have been had we broken with tradition and not disgracefully pissed away a lead late in the game. No, let’s instead bask in the glory of the accomplishment of this utter failure: we have, with virtual certainty, won the Wooden Spoon. Last place in the league, baby! For that triumph our prize will be the #3 first round draft pick. If the illustrious DCU brain trust hasn’t already traded away our first round pick for the rights of Chris Carrieri, I’m confident they will endeavor to put this pick to great and intelligent use, perhaps even using it to reacquire Carey Talley.

Yes, these are fine times at DCU. Once again we have slipped back into the ranks of the worst 5 MLS teams ever, displacing the 2009 NYR. Things should get even spiffier next week when we travel (coachless) to Denver for our annual away beating at the hands of COL. For the moment, however, no doubt by virtue of some mathematical miracle, the Olsen Pace still exceeds the Onalfo Line. But if things keep going like they have been (and let’s face it, in all likelihood they’re only going to get worse) then it won’t for long. At least we still have the puppies …

 

Yes, I see what you mean. And you could set up that sort of measure. Assuming the 40-point rule of thumb is as defunct as it now appears, that may be how I do it next year. But what I was going for was a floor and ceiling. The HD# was the minimum and the AD# was the maximum. Somewhere in the range between them was the probable actual pace needed for playoff viability.

I agree -- a sort of gauge of table mobility. It's easy to set up, so here it is (I did treat the top and bottom of the table the same, however). Because they all have the same PRJ, the CDC, HOU, and NER numbers are all set by the PHI PRJ. PHI’s number is, however, set by CHI because their PPG numbers actually differ before rounding off to two decimal places, and this difference results in different PRJ numbers.

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP MB# MB#÷[/U]
01  LAG  26  4  15  05  06  50  1.92  58  62  --  --
02  RSL  26  4  13  09  04  48  1.85  55  60  81  2.70
03  FCD  26  4  11  13  02  46  1.77  53  58  78  2.60
04  CMB  26  4  13  06  07  45  1.73  52  57  69  2.30
05  NYR  26  4  13  05  08  44  1.69  51  56  67  2.23
06  SJE  24  6  11  06  07  39  1.63  49  57  64  2.13
07  COL  25  5  10  08  07  38  1.52  46  53  71  2.37
08  SEA  26  4  11  06  09  39  1.50  45  51  57  1.90
------------------------------------------------------
09  KCW  25  5  09  06  10  33  1.32  40  48  78  2.60
10  TFC  26  4  08  07  11  31  1.19  36  43  72  2.40
11  CHI  24  6  06  08  10  26  1.08  33  44  54  1.80
12  PHI  25  5  07  06  12  27  1.08  32  42  39  1.30
13  CDC  25  5  07  04  14  25  1.00  30  40  51  1.70
14  HOU  26  4  07  05  14  26  1.00  30  38  53  1.77
15  NER  26  4  07  05  14  26  1.00  30  38  53  1.77
16  DCU  26  4  05  03  18  18  0.69  21  30  98  3.27[/B]

The Mobility Number (MB#) means: a team must play like a "##" point team for the remainder of the season to outpace and thus beat the current pace of the team with the next highest PRJ.

MB# = [([(Next Highest PRJ) + 1] - Actual Points) / Games Remaining] * 30
MB#÷ = MB#/30 (i.e. in PPG)​

It's a pretty static picture. Leap-frogging in pretty much every case practically requires a slowdown from the next highest team. PHI is the most mobile team on the table. It certainly makes KCW's playoff quest look even harder. The numbers also support my contention that DCU has effectively won the Wooden Spoon.

Meanwhile, according to RSL's Twitter ...

I guess they were crazy enough to work through all the machinations.

Edit -- Or maybe more likely, they saw the same thing we did (RSL owns the tiebreaker over KCW), and called it a day, not even worrying about the multi-way tie complications. I'd actually bet on this.