The 2010 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Numerical Arcana of Dubious Value [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Sep 13, 2010.

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  1. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    My understanding is that's wrong. But instead of arguing about this here, I'm going to propose that we resolve to get to the bottom of this by contacting MLS and MLS reporters and anyone else who might know this or who might be able to get to the bottom of this. I propose the following: Let's agree on an example scenario and send it out to try to get a definitive answer.

    Using nlsanand's hypothetical 48-point, 4-way tie, I came up with this even more hypothetical example. Does this scenario accurately reflect the problem?

    Code:
    [B]Hypothetical 4-Way Standings Tie: Who Advances?
    
            Clash  Metros Fusion Mutiny Total  
    Clash   -----  1-0-1  1-0-1  0-2-0  2-2-2  
    Metros  1-0-1  -----  1-1-0  0-1-1  2-2-2  
    Fusion  1-0-1  0-1-1  -----  1-1-0  2-2-2  
    Mutiny  0-2-0  1-1-0  0-1-1  -----  1-4-1  
    
            [U]W  D  L  PTS GD  GF[/U]
    Clash   2  2  2  8   +1  35
    Metros  2  2  2  8   +2  30
    Fusion  2  2  2  8   +3  25
    Mutiny  1  4  1  7   +4  20[/B]
    Does this work?
     
  2. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    We should specify that the goal difference is for accross the league (same with GF)
     
  3. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    How is this ... in an easily sendable format.

    Edit - Screwed it up. Will repost.
     
  4. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You need the Mutiny to have the best GD for it to be a useful question.
     
  5. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    My error. I had it that way here, then screwed it up on the spreadsheet.

    Corrected image:

    [​IMG]

    http://i.imgur.com/gJNXo.png
     
  6. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

    Dec 7, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    are you listing the results as W-D-L in the upper table too? just a suggestion that you note that because MLS types might be used to their unique W-L-T way of listing things. it should be obvious from how you list the results in the lower table but you never know. better safe than sorry.
     
  7. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

    Dec 7, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    don't most other competitions use GD as the first tie breaker past points for this very sort of reason. that using Head to Head can get pretty convoluted? i have never really thought about it much but it just seems easier to go with the team tied on the most points that has the best overall GD. at least to my mind.
     
  8. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    GD is not definitively better. A lot of people prefer h2h, as it is more intuitive (if you beat a team during the season, and you're tied on points, then you should get the tiebreaker). This is a philosophical question.

    The issue with MLS's system is that if three teams are ranked head to head, the head to head resets after a singular winner is advanced. That's what makes it more confusing.

    But i worry about this thread getting off course (as I beleive this topic warrants its own thread)
     
  9. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Good point. Trying to cover all the bases here. How is this?

    [​IMG]

    http://i.imgur.com/7sRyd.png

    Yup -- big thread on this last year: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1207152
     
  10. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    1. Fusion
    2. Mutiny
    3. Metro
    4. Clash

    EDIT:

    Fusion are first on second tiebreaker, GD.

    Mutiny win 3 way by better record vs Clash/Metro.

    Metro ahead of Clash by GD.
     
  11. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    And some here believe that's totally wrong -- perhaps you missed the issue further up the thread, namely whether you can eliminate a loser even if you can't advance a winner. Some say yes, some say no. Some saying no claim a league informed source on this.

    Moreover, tell me exactly why you come up with that order according to the rules.

    http://www.mlssoccer.com/playoff-format

    In short: why?
     
  12. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    I'm assuming that when you determine the top team, you go back to the first tiebreaker among all remaining tied teams.

    If you don't do that, then after you determine the top team, you're still continuing to count results against that team among the 3 remaining tied teams to separate them which doesn't make much sense.
     
  13. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    You're missing the issue. In this scenario you can't determine a top team via head to head. So do you then take all four teams into the second tie breaker (in which case the Mutiny come out on top), or do you eliminate the Mutiny as a loser and start over with head to head for the remaining 3 teams.

    But bottom line, we're not interested in "assumptions" here. That's what we're trying to get away from. If you do not have a definite, verifiable answer, then please don't confuse the matter.

    If you want to help determine the correct answer here once and for all, then great. Send this off to those who might know the real answer once we're all agreed on the scenario. Then report back here.
     
  14. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Of course you eliminate the Mutiny. Only teams that are tied on the first tiebreaker can advance to the second. But they're only eliminated for the purposes of determining the top team among those four.
     
  15. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    You assume all this. I don't give a damn about your assumptions.

    I want a verifiable answer. You cannot provide a verifiable answer.

    Like I said, if you want to help obtain a verifiable answer, then great.

    If you do not want to help, then don't confuse the issue here.
     
  16. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I tracked down Sirk's post from last year:
    I still think we should verify all this if we can.
     
  17. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good luck, this is now the 3rd year in a row we've ended up in this situation and MLS has yet to clarify it. Last year I tried emailing a couple of MLS reporters but never got a verified answer. MLS unfairly gets called "bush league" for a lot of things, but this is one case where I think it applies. To have unclear playoff tiebreakers 3 years running is a joke that's rectified by a phone call and 15 minutes of HTML editing on the website.
     
  18. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    It's worth a try. And I'm figuring if there's more than one of us sending this out to reporters (who maybe need an idea for a story or blog post), and the league, then maybe at least one of us will get a decent response.

    Still look OK?

    [​IMG]

    http://i.imgur.com/yPRM2.png
     
  19. El Naranja

    El Naranja Member+

    Sep 5, 2006
    Alief
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not to disparage your larger point, but you are way off base here:

    They've had many thousands of minutes to rectify the most basic of issues with their website and you expect them to solve this one in 15 minutes!?!!?

    Are you insane?

    :eek:


    ;)
     
  20. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Again, I'm going off of this, from the link that Knave posted:

    I read that second sentence as GD being the next tie breaker for those two teams, but not including the third team. Because to be honest, it really doesn't make sense that the third team should be able to "advance" to the next tie-breaker when they're behind in the first tie-breaker.

    Edit: In fact, that's what Sirk's post says.

     
  21. Sirk

    Sirk Member+

    Apr 25, 1999
    Cleveland, OH
    Knave,

    Thanks for the heads up via PM.

    To answer your question, based on my exchange with Will Kuhns last fall, the 4-way tiebreak remains in effect until ONE team ADVANCES. The fact that the 4-way tiebreak eliminates the Mutiny on the first go means nothing, other than eliminating the Mutiny from winning the tiebreak. The 4-way tiebreak is still applied to the 3 remaining teams since no team advanced from the first tiebreaker.

    Next up is goal differential, which means the Fusion advance from this tiebreaker.

    If another spot was at stake, the three remaining teams would then be subject to a new tiebreaker amongst themselves.

    Sirk
     
  22. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Thanks Sirk.

    Let's say that, in this example, the battle is for 6th, 7th, and 8th place.

    On the first tie-breaker for 6th place, the Mutiny would be eliminated from consideration. But since the other three teams are tied on points, 6th place still hasn't been decided. So they move to the next tie-breaker for 6th place, which would be GD. At that point, the Fusion win the tie-breaker and take 6th place.

    Then you have to determine 7th place, and you start over for the first tie-breaker for 7th place taking into consideration the three teams that are tied. At that point, the Fusion advance on having the best record against the other two teams.

    Edit: Proof of that is from the MLS link, here:

    Then you have to determine 8th place, between the Clash and the Metros. They are tied on points, and go to the next tie-breaker, which goes to the Metros (booo!).

    Poor Clash.
     
  23. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

    Dec 7, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    looks like the Clash should have had a better defense (in this example). 35 goals scored but only a +1 GD? probably wouldn't have done much in these imaginary playoffs anyway with such a sieve at the back anyway. :D
     
  24. Sirk

    Sirk Member+

    Apr 25, 1999
    Cleveland, OH
    I think you meant the Mutiny. But other than that, yeah, that is exactly how it would unfold as explained to me by Will last fall.

    4-way tiebreak: MIA wins 6th on GD tiebreaker.

    TB/MET/SJ 3-way: TB wins 7th on PPG.

    MET/SJ 2-way: MET win 8th on GD.

    The Clash are on the outs.
     
  25. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    It's that bolded sentence that I don't get. If the 4-way tie-breaker remains in effect until a winner is advanced, then all four team go onto GD. In that case, the Mutiny would advance as the winner.

    This is all so confusing ...

    I've already started working my around the email chain on this. I encourage others to do the same.
     

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