[R] The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation [R]

TheScarfMachine · Sep 30, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Autogolazo said: ↑

If Dallas beats the Revs on Wednesday, this thing gets crazy--like 8 drowning men grabbing at each other to stay afloat.

The new playoff format is providing thrills, chills, spills and chokes aplenty.
Click to expand...

footballfantatic said: ↑

This is a playoff race! I love this format. Basically no teams are out (RB) and there are only 3-4 games left!!!!
Click to expand...

This year's playoff race is a prime example why I prefer MLS to any league in the world. There's only two teams out of 15 who can't win the title this year; Mathmatically, there's only one. Wow. Every single game matters over the entire season, and it has come to a fantastic crescendo this fall.

I can only imagine how dramatic this is going to be in 2011, with three more teams all vying for those precious 8 spots.

TrueCrew · Sep 30, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

TheScarfMachine said: ↑

This year's playoff race is a prime example why I prefer MLS to any league in the world. There's only two teams out of 15 who can't win the title this year; Mathmatically, there's only one. Wow. Every single game matters over the entire season, and it has come to a fantastic crescendo this fall.

I can only imagine how dramatic this is going to be in 2011, with three more teams all vying for those precious 8 spots.
Click to expand...

Well, there will also probably be a couple more teams out of it. This year is really an aberration.

cleazer · Sep 30, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

I hope they don't change the playoff format next year.

TrueCrew · Sep 30, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Well, no one else dropping out just yet.

FlashMan · Sep 30, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Autogolazo said: ↑

If Dallas beats the Revs on Wednesday, this thing gets crazy--like 8 drowning men grabbing at each other to stay afloat.
Click to expand...

Yea, this thing has gotten crazy. Maybe more like 12 or 13 drowning men grabbing each trying to stay afloat....and only 8 are going to make it.

The new playoff format is providing thrills, chills, spills and chokes aplenty.
Click to expand...

The season may end up with the best team playing at the end of the year - FC Dallas - ending up on the outside looking in. Too bad they got going so late. Still time though.....just...

TrueCrew · Sep 30, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

FlashMan said: ↑

The season may end up with the best team playing at the end of the year - FC Dallas - ending up on the outside looking in. Too bad they got going so late. Still time though.....just...
Click to expand...

It would be a shame if the highest scoring team in the league failed to make the playoffs two years running (2008 LA, 2009 FCD).

Knave · Oct 1, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Code:

[B][U]In Brief[/U]

- It's official: the playoff race is now, to quote Autogolazo,
  "[URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18898906&postcount=71"]like 8 drowning men grabbing at each other to stay afloat.[/URL]" 
- Best. MLS Playoff Race. EVER!

[U]Housekeeping[/U]

- Unless there's an objection, I'm gonna start eliminating some
  of the more meaningless numbers from the table -- like the 
  T# and M# for clinched and eliminated teams.
- Mr. Bandwagon - [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18899079&postcount=72"]Got it.[/URL] Thanks![/B]

Code:

[B][U]The Table[/U]

[U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
[COLOR="DarkBlue"]01  CMB  26  4  12  10  04  46  1.77  53  58  --  --  13[/COLOR]
02  HOU  27  3  12  07  08  43  1.59  48  52  03  16  07
03  CHI  27  3  10  11  06  41  1.52  46  50  05  14  05
04  LAG  27  3  10  11  06  41  1.52  46  50  05  14  05
05  COL  27  3  10  09  08  39  1.44  43  48  07  12  03
06  CDC  25  5  11  05  09  38  1.52  46  53  08  17  08
07  SEA  27  3  09  11  07  38  1.41  42  47  08  11  02
08  NER  26  4  10  07  09  37  1.42  43  49  09  13  04
----------------------------------------------------------
09  DCU  27  3  08  12  07  36  1.33  40  45  10  09  --
10  TFC  27  3  09  08  10  35  1.30  39  44  11  08  --
11  RSL  27  3  09  07  11  34  1.26  38  43  12  07  --
12  FCD  27  3  09  06  12  33  1.22  37  42  13  06  --
13  KCW  26  4  08  07  11  31  1.19  36  43  15  07  --
14  SJE  25  5  06  07  12  25  1.00  30  40  21  04  --
[COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  27  3  04  06  17  18  0.67  20  27  28  --  --[/COLOR]

GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG)
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 

- Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
01  CMB  26  46  13  13  9  4  0  3  6  4  -06
02  HOU  27  43  13  14  8  4  1  4  3  7  -10
03  CDC  25  38  12  13  8  2  2  3  3  7  -11
04  LAG  27  41  13  14  5  4  4  5  7  2  -12
05  CHI  27  41  14  13  4  6  4  6  5  2  -14
06  NER  26  37  13  13  7  3  3  3  4  6  -15
07  COL  27  39  14  13  8  4  2  2  5  6  -16
08  SEA  27  38  14  13  6  6  2  3  5  5  -17
09  DCU  27  36  13  14  6  5  2  2  7  5  -17
10  TFC  27  35  13  14  7  3  3  2  5  7  -18
11  RSL  27  34  13  14  7  5  1  2  2  10 -19
12  KCW  26  31  13  13  4  4  5  4  3  6  -21
13  FCD  27  33  14  13  7  4  3  2  2  9  -22
14  SJE  25  25  13  12  5  4  4  1  3  8  -26
15  NYR  27  18  14  13  4  4  6  0  2  11 -37

Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PTS.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

     WK29   WK30   WK31   WK32

CDC: @DCU   KCW    SJE    @CHI
                          HOU
CHI: @LAG          @NER   CDC
CMB: SEA    @NER   @DCU   NER
COL: NER           @FCD   @RSL
DCU: CDC           CMB    @KCW
FCD:        @SJE   COL    @SEA
HOU: KCW           LAG    @CDC
KCW: @HOU   @CDC   SEA    DCU
LAG: CHI           @HOU   SJE
NER: @COL   CMB    CHI    @CMB
NYR: @SJE          @RSL   TFC
RSL:               NYR    COL
                   @TFC
SEA: @CMB          @KCW   FCD
SJE: NYR    FCD    @CDC    @LAG
            @TOR
TFC:        SJE    RSL    @NYR
[/B]

TrueCrew · Oct 1, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Fun facts for those already clinched: Columbus can clinch the #1 seed in the East this week-end if:

1) Crew win vs. Seattle + Chicago draw/loss @LA, AND
2) NE fails to win @COL.

The Crew can clinch a top 2 seed out east if:

1) Crew wins vs. Seatte + Chicago draw/loss @LA, OR
2) Crew gets more points from their game than NE does: Crew win/draw vs. NE draw/loss

I'm sure Houston has an easy playoff clinch scenario too, just win baby.

Knave · Oct 1, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Fun fact: good chance NY clinches last place this weekend.

Knave · Oct 3, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Code:

[B][U]In Brief[/U]

- Just a mini-update.
- Because LA (PTS: 44) holds the tie-breaker against TFC (MPP: 44),
  if DCU (MPP: 45) draws or loses, then LA clinches a playoff spot.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]The Table[/U]

[U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
[COLOR="DarkBlue"]01  CMB  26  4  12  10  04  46  1.77  53  58  --  --  13[/COLOR]
02  LAG  28  2  11  11  06  44  1.57  47  50  02  14  05
03  HOU  27  3  12  07  08  43  1.59  48  52  03  16  07
04  CHI  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  05  11  02
05  COL  27  3  10  09  08  39  1.44  43  48  07  12  03
06  CDC  25  5  11  05  09  38  1.52  46  53  08  17  08
07  SEA  27  3  09  11  07  38  1.41  42  47  08  11  02
08  NER  26  4  10  07  09  37  1.42  43  49  09  13  04
----------------------------------------------------------
09  DCU  27  3  08  12  07  36  1.33  40  45  10  09  --
10  TFC  27  3  09  08  10  35  1.30  39  44  11  08  --
11  RSL  27  3  09  07  11  34  1.26  38  43  12  07  --
12  FCD  27  3  09  06  12  33  1.22  37  42  13  06  --
13  KCW  26  4  08  07  11  31  1.19  36  43  15  07  --
14  SJE  25  5  06  07  12  25  1.00  30  40  21  04  --
[COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  27  3  04  06  17  18  0.67  20  27  --  --  --[/COLOR]

GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG)
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 

- Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B]

THOMA GOL · Oct 3, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Knave said: ↑

Fun fact: good chance NY clinches last place this weekend.
Click to expand...

They'll probably trade their number one draft pick

boomersooner027 · Oct 3, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

boomersooner027 said: ↑

FCD @ Seattle last game of the season will be a winner take all playoff battle. You heard it here first
Click to expand...

Bump Come on DC

TopDogg · Oct 3, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

THOMA GOL said: ↑

They'll probably trade their number one draft pick
Click to expand...

They don't get one.

Knave · Oct 4, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Code:

[B][U]In Brief[/U]

- Because LA (PTS: 44) holds the tie-breaker against TFC (MPP: 44),
  and because DCU lost to CDC, dropping their MPP to 42, LAG has now
  officially clinched a playoff spot. Hence the "*" on their M# of +1.
- With its loss to SJE (PTS: 28), NYR (MPP: 24) has clinched last place.
- HOU (M#: 2) clinches a playoff spot with a win.
- CMB (PTS: 46) holds the tiebreaker over COL (MPP: 46). So COL has 
  been eliminated from the SS race. Hence the "*" on their SSE# of +1.
- There's a growing PPG gap between the 8th and 9th place teams.
- DCU is so screwed they're quite nearly f'cked. At 25 games they had
  a pace of -11. Three games later it's -20. The tale tells itself.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]The Table[/U]

[U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
[COLOR="DarkBlue"]01  CMB  27  3  12  10  05  46  1.70  51  55  --  --  10
02  LAG  28  2  11  11  06  44  1.57  47  50  01* --  05[/COLOR]
03  HOU  27  3  12  07  08  43  1.59  48  52  02  15  07
04  CDC  26  4  12  05  09  41  1.58  47  53  04  16  08
05  CHI  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  04  10  02
06  SEA  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  04  10  02
07  COL  28  2  10  10  08  40  1.43  43  46  05  09  01*
08  NER  27  3  10  08  09  38  1.41  42  47  07  10  02
----------------------------------------------------------
09  DCU  28  2  08  12  08  36  1.29  39  42  09  05  --
10  TFC  27  3  09  08  10  35  1.30  39  44  10  07  --
11  RSL  27  3  09  07  11  34  1.26  38  43  11  06  --
12  FCD  27  3  09  06  12  33  1.22  37  42  12  05  --
13  KCW  26  4  08  07  11  31  1.19  36  43  14  06  --
14  SJE  26  4  07  07  12  28  1.08  32  40  17  03  --
[COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  28  2  04  06  18  18  0.64  19  24  --  --  --[/COLOR]

GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG)
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 

- Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
01  CDC  26  41  12  14  8  2  2  4  3  7  -09
02  CMB  27  46  14  13  9  4  1  3  6  4  -09
03  HOU  27  43  13  14  8  4  1  4  3  7  -10
04  LAG  28  44  14  14  6  4  4  5  7  2  -12
05  NER  27  38  13  14  7  3  3  3  5  6  -15
06  CHI  28  41  14  14  4  6  4  6  5  3  -15
07  SEA  28  41  14  14  6  6  2  4  5  5  -15
08  TFC  27  35  13  14  7  3  3  2  5  7  -18
09  COL  28  40  15  13  8  5  2  2  5  6  -18
10  RSL  27  34  13  14  7  5  1  2  2  10 -19
11  DCU  28  36  14  14  6  5  3  2  7  5  -20
12  KCW  26  31  13  13  4  4  5  4  3  6  -21
13  FCD  27  33  14  13  7  4  3  2  2  9  -22
14  SJE  26  28  14  12  6  4  4  1  3  8  -26
15  NYR  28  18  14  14  4  4  6  0  2  12 -38

Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PTS.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

[U]TEAM   WK30   WK31   WK32[/U]
CDC:   KCW    SJE    @CHI
       ----   ----   HOU
CHI:   ----   @NER   CDC
CMB:   @NER   @DCU   NER
COL:   ----   @FCD   @RSL
DCU:   ----   CMB    @KCW
FCD:   @SJE   COL    @SEA
HOU:   ----   LAG    @CDC
KCW:   @CDC   SEA    DCU
LAG:   ----   @HOU   SJE
NER:   CMB    CHI    @CMB
NYR:   ----   @RSL   TFC
RSL:   ----   NYR    COL
       ----   @TFC   ----
SEA:   ----   @KCW   FCD
SJE:   FCD    @CDC   @LAG
       @TOR   ----   ----
TFC:   SJE    RSL    @NYR
[/B]

Knave · Oct 4, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Code:

[B][U]Oops[/U]

- I forgot about the KCW-HOU game when I did the big update last night.
  So some of this is repeated from above. 

[U]In Brief[/U]

- Because HOU (PTS: 44) holds the tie-breaker against TFC (MPP: 44), 
  HOU has now officially clinched a playoff spot. Hence the "*" on their 
  M# of +1.
- Because LAG (PTS: 44) holds the tie-breaker against TFC (MPP: 44), 
  LAG has now officially clinched a playoff spot. Hence the "*" on their 
  M# of +1.
- With its loss to SJE (PTS: 28), NYR (MPP: 24) has clinched last place.
- CMB (PTS: 46) holds the tiebreaker over COL (MPP: 46). So COL has 
  been eliminated from the SS race. Hence the "*" on their SSE# of +1.
- HOU, LAG and CDC are all well positioned to win the Western Conference.
  Indeed, they're all almost evenly positioned. Should be a good race.
[/B]

Code:

[B][U]The Table[/U]

[U]         GP  GR W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP M#  T#  SSE#[/u]
[COLOR="DarkBlue"]01  CMB  27  3  12  10  05  46  1.70  51  55  --  --  10
02  LAG  28  2  11  11  06  44  1.57  47  50  01* 13  05
03  HOU  28  2  12  08  08  44  1.57  47  50  01* 13  05[/COLOR]
04  CDC  26  4  12  05  09  41  1.58  47  53  04  16  08
05  CHI  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  04  10  02
06  SEA  28  2  10  11  07  41  1.46  44  47  04  10  02
07  COL  28  2  10  10  08  40  1.43  43  46  05  09  01*
08  NER  27  3  10  08  09  38  1.41  42  47  07  10  02
----------------------------------------------------------
09  DCU  28  2  08  12  08  36  1.29  39  42  09  05  --
10  TFC  27  3  09  08  10  35  1.30  39  44  10  07  --
11  RSL  27  3  09  07  11  34  1.26  38  43  11  06  --
12  FCD  27  3  09  06  12  33  1.22  37  42  12  05  --
13  KCW  27  3  08  08  11  32  1.19  36  41  13  04  --
14  SJE  26  4  07  07  12  28  1.08  32  40  17  03  --
[COLOR="SlateGray"]15  NYR  28  2  04  06  18  18  0.64  19  24  --  --  --
[/COLOR]

GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
PRJ = Projected = PTS + (GR x PPG)
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
M# = Magic Number = (9th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (8th Highest PTS) + 1
SSE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 

- Sorted by PTS, then fewest GP.
- Teams in [COLOR="SlateGray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="DarkBlue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW HD HL AW AD AL PCE[/U]
01  CDC  26  41  12  14  8  2  2  4  3  7  -09
02  CMB  27  46  14  13  9  4  1  3  6  4  -09
03  HOU  28  44  14  14  8  5  1  4  3  7  -12
04  LAG  28  44  14  14  6  4  4  5  7  2  -12
05  NER  27  38  13  14  7  3  3  3  5  6  -15
06  CHI  28  41  14  14  4  6  4  6  5  3  -15
07  SEA  28  41  14  14  6  6  2  4  5  5  -15
08  TFC  27  35  13  14  7  3  3  2  5  7  -18
09  COL  28  40  15  13  8  5  2  2  5  6  -18
10  RSL  27  34  13  14  7  5  1  2  2  10 -19
11  DCU  28  36  14  14  6  5  3  2  7  5  -20
12  KCW  27  32  13  14  4  4  5  4  4  6  -21
13  FCD  27  33  14  13  7  4  3  2  2  9  -22
14  SJE  26  28  14  12  6  4  4  1  3  8  -26
15  NYR  28  18  14  14  4  4  6  0  2  12 -38

Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PTS.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

[U]TEAM   WK30   WK31   WK32[/U]
CDC:   KCW    SJE    @CHI
       ----   ----   HOU
CHI:   ----   @NER   CDC
CMB:   @NER   @DCU   NER
COL:   ----   @FCD   @RSL
DCU:   ----   CMB    @KCW
FCD:   @SJE   COL    @SEA
HOU:   ----   LAG    @CDC
KCW:   @CDC   SEA    DCU
LAG:   ----   @HOU   SJE
NER:   CMB    CHI    @CMB
NYR:   ----   @RSL   TFC
RSL:   ----   NYR    COL
       ----   @TFC   ----
SEA:   ----   @KCW   FCD
SJE:   FCD    @CDC   @LAG
       @TOR   ----   ----
TFC:   SJE    RSL    @NYR
[/B]

[/QUOTE]

Autogolazo · Oct 5, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Unscientifically--I think 43 gets you in, 41 gets you eliminated, and 42gets you a tiebreak.

I think Chicago and Colorado could be in serious trouble despite the look of things right now. Each has two tough games left that they could easily lose--and even 0-1-1 might not get it done.

RSL has to win out--I don't think they can even consider aiming for 41 pts. (2-0-1).

Toronto might be able to get away with 2 wins and a draw, but a loss would end them.

FCD faces another "Cup Final" one-game elimination match on Wednesday to set the table for the week.

Knave · Oct 5, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Autogolazo said: ↑

Unscientifically--I think 43 gets you in, 41 gets you eliminated, and 42gets you a tiebreak.
Click to expand...

I share this exact sense. One reason I think DCU is in worse shape then the numbers on the surface indicate is because they're on losing end of virtually every relevant 42 point tie-breaker.

New England has some serious worries too: CMB, CHI, @CMB. That's a brutal schedule. They need at least a win and a draw. But with that schedule they can't count on any wins.

The other interesting thing is Columbus. If New England beats them next weekend then the SS race is thrown wide open between Columbus, Houston, LA and Chivas. That would make things very interesting throughout the table.

scott47a · Oct 5, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Autogolazo said: ↑

Unscientifically--I think 43 gets you in, 41 gets you eliminated, and 42gets you a tiebreak.

I think Chicago and Colorado could be in serious trouble despite the look of things right now. Each has two tough games left that they could easily lose--and even 0-1-1 might not get it done.

RSL has to win out--I don't think they can even consider aiming for 41 pts. (2-0-1).

Toronto might be able to get away with 2 wins and a draw, but a loss would end them.

FCD faces another "Cup Final" one-game elimination match on Wednesday to set the table for the week.
Click to expand...

With parity in MLS, and particularly with the decent performances recently by San Jose and Dallas, it's hard for me to imagine any of the teams currently out of the wild cards maxing out on points. That means, I think that even teams currently at 41, like Chicago and Seattle, are pretty safe already and 1 point practically guarantees they make the playoffs.

I guess I would argue you are one point too high in your estimates: 42 has got to be more than 90 percent assurance of getting in, at this point.

JasonMa · Oct 5, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

With a tie at 42 the Rapids are in decent shape. They only lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with San Jose (out of it), Columbus (Not likely to be tied for a wild card), Chicago (ditto), and Seattle. Right now they win it against Dallas, FSL, LA, and NY. Everyone else goes to the second tiebreaker, goal differential, and Colorado is 3rd right now behind Columbus and Houston. The only way Colorado gets to 42 is with 2 draws so their number wouldn't change in that case and unless somebody goes on a goal scoring tear the only team likely to meet or pass that number is Seattle, who Colorado already loses the first tiebreaker to.

If we can get a win or two draws I feel pretty good about our chances. 1 draw or two losses and we're on the outside looking in probably.

Knave · Oct 5, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

By the way, this is pretty slick: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html

TrueCrew · Oct 5, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Good stuff, I love it.

1) On the chase for 8: I can see some of the chasers winning out.

One of TFC/RSL, for one. TFC has SJ, RSL (after RSL plays midweek), @NY. If they lose/fail to win a game, I think the RSL game is the one. RSL have, NY, @TFC, COL. If they win @TFC, you have to like their chances.

Even FCD has a shot. @SJ, COL, @SEA. @SEA is tough, but the first two are extremely winnable.

Heck, even DC,with Crew, @KC. A home game and @KC, not impossible.

Speaking of KC, 2/3 at home and @CHV. Not impossible.

Point being, while I think it's unlikely for any one team to run the table, I think is possible one team does. There are only 3 weeks left, and a lot of teams don't play this week. If anyone is breathing with two weeks to go, they have to feel they have a legit shot.

New England are the key. And to a lesser extent Colorado. With their schedule, I could easily see 3 losses, or 1 draw and 2 losses, which would keep the 8th spot under 40 unless a chasing team (TFC) puts up 41 or better.

And Colorado has two roadies, @FCD (who'd want that right now?) and @RSL (Rio Tinto is a tough venue).

Bottom line, I could easily see both NE and Colorado ending up with no more than 40, which could open the door for not only 1 chasing team, but maybe two.

2) On the Shield.

NE v. Crew is key again. A win (or even a draw) and the Crew still look fairly comfortable, even though Chivas could catch them with their GIH if they draw. Still, the Crew own the tiebreakers vs. Houston and Los Angeles (head to head) and have a big GD edge on Chivas right now. So effectively, a 3 pt lead is 4. Or 6 = 7. Though 5 does NOT equal six, if you follow.

Right now, I'd say 50 points claims the SS for the Crew, Chivas are the only team that can better it. However, if they lose to NE, they might not hit 50.

Knave · Oct 5, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

TrueCrew said: ↑

New England are the key ...

... NE v. Crew is key again.
Click to expand...

The more I think about it, the more I think this is the biggest, most consequential game yet this season.

If NE wins, then it sets up a huge 4-team battle for the Supporters Shield.

If the Crew win, then it sets up a big 6-team brawl for the 8th spot.

If NE and the Crew draw, then we get the battle at the top and the brawl at the bottom. (Don Garber is hoping for a draw!)

So one way or the other this game is going to have a major effect on the whole table and on everyone's prospects for the last week. There's no result that avoids that consequence.

It's actually too bad that this game isn't mid-week instead of being preceded by San Jose's games against FCD and TFC. But even with those two results in, and no matter really what those results are, it's still, I think, going to be the most consequential game of the season.

One other thing: the FSC guys have been moaning and groaning for weeks about the crappy MLS games they've ended up broadcasting. They were practically apologizing last weekend. But FSC got this one.

soccer_fan_1960 · Oct 5, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

If you like numbers and want info on the playoffs, this site is the best IMHO.

www.playoffstatus.com/mls/mls.html

Mr. Bandwagon · Oct 5, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Knave said: ↑

the FSC guys have been moaning and groaning for weeks about the crappy MLS games they've ended up broadcasting. They were practically apologizing last weekend.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was a little surprised that they didn't make arrangements to broadcast a different match than SJ vs. NY. I believe ESPN already dropped at least one late-season SJ match due to the obvious lack of playoff implications there in.

TrueCrew · Oct 6, 2009

Re: The 2009 Playoff Race – Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Assorted Obfuscation

Mr. Bandwagon said: ↑

Yeah, I was a little surprised that they didn't make arrangements to broadcast a different match than SJ vs. NY. I believe ESPN already dropped at least one late-season SJ match due to the obvious lack of playoff implications there in.
Click to expand...

Well, if SJ wins twice this week, and the Crew beats NE, the Quakes are still breathing with two weeks to go. Who would have predicted that? Just think where they'd be if they could have restrained themselves from last minute PK's against Colorado?

Answer: they could catch the Revs this week.