Does anyone put stock in preseason results? Most people immediately say no, but I don't know that it's entirely useless as a predictor of success. Sure the players aren't in midseason form, and probably struggling to implement the new system, but 0 goals over this many games is a little discouraging.
At the risk of jinxing us and every other team in history, I've noticed a shockingly obvious opposite correlation between results in pre-season and results in regular season - in all sports. So, actually, I'm pretty thrilled with how pre-season is going so far
New coach, new system, and add in the fact that we've been missing players for nats duty (full and u-23's) I'd say don't put too much stock into how the first 3 games have gone.
Get some freakin' wins. IN the interest of time I'm only posting since '03. The record: MLS Champions: Yr - MLS Champion - Pre-season record - Preseason table (1 is top) '03, SJ, 6-2-1/+6 GD, 3rd - only LA and KC were better '04, no championship earned, finalist DC 2-5-3/-4, 12th - MLS worst by far '04, no championship earned, finalist KC 8-2-1/+13, 3rd - COL and NE undefeated '05, LA, 4-2-2/+7, 7th '06, HOU. 6-3-1/+7, 4th KC: '03, 8-1-3, +24, 1st MLS Best, Late colapse led to road OT loss in Conference final to eventual Champion '05, 7-2-1/+13, 5th, East 5th place no playoffs '06, 5-2-2/+3, 5th, East 5th Place no playoffs Observations: *It's early and 2 games isn't much info *KC has had some starters out and is playing short so an accurate reflection isn't possible *KC has no proven depth at any position *KC has rookies at every front office and coaching position of note *To win you at least had better be able to score from open play *KC hasn't scored from open play as yet *Pre-season competition should be discounted as it varies greatly *None of the above is news *Only one team has failed to put up big offensive numbers (or even as little as <1 goal per game) in the pre-season and has made the MLS final. *IMO, There is a corellation, it isn't anywhere near completely opposite as Yank suggests. There's is an opposite effect, but it's limited. *Stock analysis puts several measures on corellation as it relates to an individual issue comparing to a market segment or the market as a whole. For this, it' say, a teams' pre-season record compared to eventual regular season performance. One measure is 0 for no relation at all or totally random, 1 for perfect corellation, and negative 1 for a universally opposite result. You can do the math if you want to, I'll pass. I'd guess in this case the corellation is about .40 or so. Meaningless? No. Not crystal ball material by any stretch, but insights are available. Simply, a team can do well in the regular season with a crap pre-season, but it is very rare. Seemingly a team still must exhibit some ability to score against lesser teams and those working into shape. The one example listed where a team made the final after failing miserably in the pre-season happens to coincide with the rediculousness of the media hype and mania surrounding Freddy Adu's rookie year. It seems a natural explanation for players on that team to have paid something less than maximum attention to just professional issues with MLS' Adu Circus going on daily. *Notable is that KC's history has normally been to perform much better in exhibitions. There always seems to be a larger than normal drop-off to the regular season. "Normal" being explained by the expected rise in competiton from exhibitions to league games. The reasons are maybe less important than the fact there exists a consistency. Let's hope this means less now, or preferably nothing, as KC is under new management. Regardless Onalfo had better get them in gear if he likes his job. The East: NE is the defending East finalist and just resigned a happy Twellman who will be eager to impress The Bob. Right now do you take Twellman or Eddie Johnston? Chicago is obviously good. Among other things they are 2-0-1 in the pre-season and have not conceeded a goal yet. Chicago will have a much improved backline over a young and sieve-like one last year. NY has The Bruce at the helm now, in addition to whatever else is on-field. I don't think the Bruce has ever missed the playoffs. I would look for the 'Bulls to be in come October. BTW, Red Bull could not be a more disgusting taste. Is should be a misdaemeanor to waste vodka by mixing with that garbage. I'd seriously rather drink beer...from me that's saying something. The above holds and KC is fighting for the last spot with: DC is DC. DC has been hurt by defections and trades. I believe DC will be better without Adu. To me, Adu is still a liability on the whole unless the team goal is a short highlight reel. DC will be less selfish on the field as they will have to learn how to better create as a team without Adu. They will certainly luckbox into a playoff spot somehow even if they are average or less. Toronto is an unknown with several lesser lights. First year teams struggle historically if your name isn't Chicago and you don't draft all of Poland to help your club. 12K season tickets sold already and the pathetic other local teams guarantees a tough road environment. Columbus can and will score, might learn how to defend under Sigi, can't possibly be hit by the same goalkeeping injuries of the recent past again this year, and has the promise all teams hold before the local thaw. Probably only one team of the last 4 will get in. A poor pre-season is not a normal omen of good things to come in this Eastern scenario. Today, you could make a meaningless argument that KC will finish 6th easily. It's early. Things change. -WC
Re: Get some freakin' wins. Well, to be fair, I was basing my hypothesis on...uhh...nothing . Those are some interesting numbers, though. Good post.
Re: Get some freakin' wins. Exactly. Two games is far too short a sample to base anything on. Especially since KC hasn't played a lineup that even remotely resembles a regular lineup.
Funny, I got Settlers of Catan for my kids for Christmas, it is an awesome game. Like Davy, I haven't won once.
Kansas City Wizards shut out Chicago Fire in 3-0 victory Movsisyan, Johnson, Sealy scored Kansas City Wizards Lineup for first half - (4-4-2) Hartman, Jewsbury, Garcia, Conrad, Burciaga, Jr., John, Morsink, McMahen, Victorine, Johnson, Movsisyan Lineup for second half - (4-4-2) Kronberg, Wahl, Hohlbein, Conrad, Godbolt, Elcock, Raybould, Mamado Ba, Watson, Sealy, Guadarrama
I was wondering why no Arnaud or Zavagnin... OUT: Arnuad (Knee), Thomas (Travel), Harrington (U-23), Zavagnin (Groin)
Notables: KC leaves teh ranks of the winless. Mov, Sealy, and EJ all score. More of that please. Defensive shutout for 120 minutes, both keepers with 60. Big K getting good work is a very nice thing as he had the backup defenders and Conrad. Jimmy played all 120 minutes. KC beating Chicago anywhere for any reason is worth a moment of celebration.
According to this: http://oursportscentral.com/services/releases/?id=3429041 and to Wembley's post with the pics from the match, the game actually ended 4-0, with Sealy scoring a 2nd time in the 116th minute. Who's doing the Wizards update on this and why did they not stay for the final 30 minute session?
Jack is doing well at right back. It is still a learning process for him, but he's doing pretty well there. He was very involved in the attacks yesterday, some overlapping, a good through ball for EJ (his goal I think) and some good distribution (cross field passes and crosses). I spoke with him last night and he feels much more comfortable about the position, ad with Hartmann and Conrad he's got some good experience to help him there. wembley
Good to hear. I always liked Jack, and he always provided a spark when he entered the game as a sub. With him at right back, and Davy at right mid, we've got incredible hustle on one side of the field.
I like Jack too and he does hustle. That said, I am really hoping that Harrington will be in that spot.