[mpruitt]

Amazing, a thread somewhere else that would probably fit into this forum. It was discussing how the table would've looked if there had been no overtime in MLS. I don't know how accurate any of the numbers are and finding if someone has already done a more detailed analysis would be interesting, but here's the thread.

http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showt...threadid=99512

[Flyer Fan]

US Pro Soccer Results, Tables & "Shots at Goal" by Chris Allen

Allen's page has updates through the 2001 MLS season. For each season you can find regular season results with goal scorers, playoff results, and tables. For seasons prior to 2000, the tables page includes a "Hypothetical FIFA-standard table WITH draws and WITHOUT conferences" table.

Obviously this doesn't address the point about how MLS would look without OT, but it does give a look at how MLS might have looked without shootouts. I used this page a lot when, prior to this forum, we were discussing the applicability - or need for refinement - of Bill James' Pythagorean winning percentage.

[mpruitt]

That's phenominal. I was just last night trying to re-adjust my files so that I would get rid of SOW.

[NER_MCFC]

Does anyone have any data on how many goals were scored in OT?

My impression is that rate was somewhat higher than during regulation time, but I don't know.

Assuming there is a benefit to eliminating draws in league games, what higher frequency of goals would have been necessary to make the extra 10 minutes worth it?

A rough calculation (ignoring the minutes of OTs where goals were scored) produces a figure of a goal every 32 minutes last year in MLS. That number applied to the ten minute overtime suggests that roughly 1 in 3 tied games would produce a golden goal.

Finally, I see that there were 41 draws in 150 games last season, even with the overtime. That seems like a lot to me.

[mellon002]

Even though it hasn't been updated in a while, that's a good site for the Resources Thread so I posted it there. I'm checking the OT goals stats right now.

[ChrisE]

Originally Posted by mellon002

Even though it hasn't been updated in a while, that's a good site for the Resources Thread so I posted it there. I'm checking the OT goals stats right now.

Here's what I got, with a quick and careless calculation:

Regulation goals:421
Regulation minutes: 13500

OT goals: 12
OT minutes: 483

Regulation goals/90: 2.81
OT goals/90: 2.24

I'm not exactly sure what NER_MCFC's other question is asking.

[mellon002]

Your numbers look right ChrisE. I just went to MLSnet.com and counted 52 OT's and 12 goals. I think he's asking how many more goals needed to be scored in order to have both the regulation goal rate and the OT goal rate to be equal.

[sljohn]

Originally Posted by ChrisE

Here's what I got, with a quick and careless calculation:

Regulation goals:421
Regulation minutes: 13500

OT goals: 12
OT minutes: 483

Regulation goals/90: 2.81
OT goals/90: 2.24

Interesting. Very intersting.

On the face of it, that suggests that teams are less likely to score in OT. With the golden goal rule you'd expect the scoring rate for OT to be higher than regulation because it artifically restricts the number of OT minutes (the denominator). [Then again, it also restricts the numerator, too, but I doubt that has as much impact.]

OTOH: you could argue that the regulation goals/90 is inflated by blow-outs and that, by definition, only closely matched teams go into OT. I would further argue that that higher scoring games are less likely to end as ties (think about volatility). Likewise, if you have two teams that play to 0:0 after 90 minutes it is unsurprising that they also go 0:0 in OT.

One way to come up with a more precise answer would be to look only at games that ended in ties: determine the scoring rate for those games and calculate the likelihood of a goal in the OT time period. Then compare that to what percentage of games had goals in OT.

[AndyMead]

Originally Posted by Flyer Fan

US Pro Soccer Results, Tables & "Shots at Goal" by Chris Allen

Allen's page has updates through the 2001 MLS season. For each season you can find regular season results with goal scorers, playoff results, and tables. For seasons prior to 2000, the tables page includes a "Hypothetical FIFA-standard table WITH draws and WITHOUT conferences" table.

Obviously this doesn't address the point about how MLS would look without OT, but it does give a look at how MLS might have looked without shootouts. I used this page a lot when, prior to this forum, we were discussing the applicability - or need for refinement - of Bill James' Pythagorean winning percentage.

No, it doesn't give us a look at how MLS might've looked. It overlooks the very basic fact that teams react to the rules of the competition in which they compete. Simply ignoring shootouts or overtimes, listing teams in a "single table" is the worst type of statistics, and quite akin to numerology.

And "Saint" Bill James would cry at these crude attempts.

[ChrisE]

Originally Posted by AndyMead

No, it doesn't give us a look at how MLS might've looked. It overlooks the very basic fact that teams react to the rules of the competition in which they compete. Simply ignoring shootouts or overtimes, listing teams in a "single table" is the worst type of statistics, and quite akin to numerology.

And "Saint" Bill James would cry at these crude attempts.

So, Andy, if we're so terribly wrong, tell us what we should do about the shootout. What is the significant difference between how teams play when there's going to be a shootout and when the game is just going to end at 90 minutes? Visiting teams making a shell to protect their tie (or lead)? Anybody trailing throwing in pretty much everything they've got in pursuit of a chance for points? Home team pushing forward to break a tie?

I don't think we ought to eliminate overtime results. But I think, much like pk's, shootouts are pretty much random, and taking them out gives you a significantly more accurate picture of how good a team was.