[mpruitt]

So far in the existence of this thread we've seen some people come up with some pretty good lists in regards to goals per minute, goals per shot, shots on goal per shot, and some league wide numbers for both. All of this stuff has gotten me thinking about some of the theory behind goal scoring efficiency. These are some of the questions that I've been thinking about.

1) What is the relationship between the number of goals scored per shot per minutes played in relation to one's team? Especially vs. what any type of league average or team they're playing against normally gives up?

2) What is the relationship between a players goals scored per minute, goals per shot, and shots on goal per shot?

If we view the the ultimate puprose of an offensive action on the feild by a player is to obviously score a goal, and therefore the result of efficency, then maybe we can assume some things.

1. The number of goals scored per shot is an ultimate measurement of the players' goal scoring efficency.

1a. The number of goals he's scoring per minute is also valuable but maybe not as much valuable as goals per shot...

2. The number of shots he's getting means that he's getting himself in position to make a shot (which is allowing him a chance at being efficient.)

3. The number of shots he puts on goal per 90 is a percentage of the amount of game in which he is putting himself in position to be efficient. I think that the number of shots on goal per 90 is a very important statistic. To a certain degree once a player strikes the ball a lot of what is going to determine the outcome of that is luck mixed with skill. Much in the same way that when a baseball player hits a ball he has no control over whether or not it goes right at an infeilder, or if an outfeilder makes a crazy diving grab. I think in any overall goal efficency statistic shots and shots on goal have to be weighted more, just as on base percentage is weighted more in a slugging percentage statistics.

These are just some questions that I've been thinking about. However, you run into a problem when trying to normalize these statistics for things like, having poor teamates around you who don't allow a player to recieve the ball in a position with a chance of being effiecent, playing in a system that is primarily defensive, or going up against a goalie that regulary shuts people down.

Therefore, I have yet to figure out a way to take these things into consideration. Perhaps the easiest way to figure them out woudl be to come up with some kind of plus/minus statistic in relation to the players teamates. Because if Player A is proving to be 30% more effective at scoring then his teamates then at least that would take into consideration some of those factors. Not to mention the fact that the ultimate goal is to find the most proficient goal scorer on the feild at any given time.

[NoSix]

Originally posted by maxim-1

If we view the the ultimate puprose of an offensive action on the feild by a player is to obviously score a goal, and therefore the result of efficency, then maybe we can assume some things.

1. The number of goals scored per shot is an ultimate measurement of the players' goal scoring efficency.

1a. The number of goals he's scoring per minute is also valuable but maybe not as much valuable as goals per shot...

2. The number of shots he's getting means that he's getting himself in position to make a shot (which is allowing him a chance at being efficient.)

3. The number of shots he puts on goal per 90 is a percentage of the amount of game in which he is putting himself in position to be efficient. I think that the number of shots on goal per 90 is a very important statistic. To a certain degree once a player strikes the ball a lot of what is going to determine the outcome of that is luck mixed with skill. Much in the same way that when a baseball player hits a ball he has no control over whether or not it goes right at an infeilder, or if an outfeilder makes a crazy diving grab. I think in any overall goal efficency statistic shots and shots on goal have to be weighted more, just as on base percentage is weighted more in a slugging percentage statistics.

I think you are on the right track, but only two of your three statistics are independent.

I agree that shooting percentage defined by shots on goal divided by total shots is the most important, being a quality metric.

I would also tabulate shots on goal per 90 minutes as a quantity metric.

Once you have these two, total shots can be calculated by dividing shots on goal by the shooting percentage, so it is not really providing additional information.

To really get to the heart of shooting skill, I think the other piece you are missing is shooting angle. I would propose that it be defined as the angle subtended by two lines drawn from the point of the shot to either post of the target goal. This metric is a function of the angle and distance of the shot, varying from 0 (a corner kick) to 180 degrees (a tap-in from the goal line).