[EvanJ]

In a League Championship season, what's the probability that the best of the three teams that was in League One the previous season will finish ahead of at least one of the three teams that was in the EPL the previous season? Currently Swansea City doesn't have much chance of promotion to the EPL this season but they're still in the top half of the table and in much better shape than Nottingham Forest and Doncaster Rovers one or both of whom could be relegated back to League One.

Derby County, who did horribly in the EPL last season, is currently 18th in League Championship. Is it rare for a team to go from EPL to the botttom third of the League Championship one year later like that?

When was the most recent season in the EPL or other name for the top level if you go back to before it was the EPL (if the club has ever been there) for every club in League Championship? I'll start with I found out easily:

Derby County: 2007-2008
Reading: 2007-2008
Birmingham City: 2007-2008
Sheffield United: 2006-2007
Charlton Athletic: 2006-2007
Watford: 2006-2007
Crystal Palace: 2004-2005
Norwich City: 2004-2005
Southampton: 2004-2005
Wolverhampton Wanderers: 2003-2004
Ipswich Town: 2001-2002

Can somebody do Barnsley, Blackpool, Bristol City, Burnley, Cardiff City, Coventry City, Plymouth Argyle, Preston North End, Queens Park Rangers, Sheffield Wednesday, and Swansea City?

[SheffWedFan]

BARNSLEY - last in top flight in 1997/98
BIRMINGHAM CITY - last in top flight in 2007/08
BLACKPOOL - last in top flight in 1970/71
BRISTOL CITY - last in top flight in 1979/80
BURNLEY - last in top flight in 1975/76
CARDIFF CITY - last in top flight in 1961/62
CHARLTON ATHLETIC - last in top flight in 2006/07
COVENTRY CITY - last in top flight in 2000/01
CRYSTAL PALACE - last in top flight in 2004/05
DERBY COUNTY - last in top flight in 2007/08
DONCASTER ROVERS - have NEVER played in top division. The last time they were even at this level (prior to this year) was 1957
IPSWICH TOWN - last in top flight in 2001/02
NORWICH CITY - last in top flight in 2004/05
NOTTINGHAM FOREST - last in top flight in 1998/99
PLYMOUTH ARGYLE - have NEVER played in the top division. Have been at this level since 2004/05
PRESTON NORTH END - last in top flight in 1960/61
QUEEN'S PARK RANGERS - last in top flight in 1995/96
READING - last in top flight in 2007/08
SHEFFIELD UNITED - last in top flight in 2006/07
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY - last in top flight in 1999/2000
SOUTHAMPTON - last in top flight in 2004/05
SWANSEA CITY - last in top flight in 1982/83
WATFORD - last in top flight in 2006/07
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS - last in top flight in 2003/04

[SheffWedFan]

1981/82
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Rotherham United – 7th
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Crystal Palace – 15th

1982/83
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Burnley – 21st (relegated)
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Middlesbrough – 16th

1983/84
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Portsmouth – 16th
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Brighton and Hove Albion – 9th

1984/85
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Oxford United – 1st (promoted)
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Wolverhampton Wanderers – 22nd (relegated)

1985/86
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Bradford City – 13th
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Stoke City – 10th

1986/87
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Reading – 13th
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: West Bromwich Albion – 15th

1987/88
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Bournemouth – 17th
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Aston Villa – 2nd (promoted)

1988/89
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Sunderland – 11th
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Oxford United – 17th

1989/90
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Wolverhampton Wanderers – 10th
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Newcastle United – 3rd

1990/91
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Bristol Rovers – 13th
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Millwall – 5th

1991/92
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Cambridge United – 5th
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: Derby County – 3rd

1992/93
Previous year’s Division 3 Champions: Brentford – 22nd (relegared)
Bottom of Division 1 in previous year: West Ham United – 2nd (promoted)

1993/94
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Stoke City – 10th
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Nottingham Forest – 2nd (promoted)

1994/95
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Reading – 2nd (not promoted, lost in playoffs)
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Swindon Town – 21st (relegated)

1995/96
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Birmingham City – 15th
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Ipswich Town – 7th

1996/97
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Swindon Town – 19th
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Bolton Wanderers – 1st (promoted)

1997/98
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Bury - 17th
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Nottingham Forest – 1st (promoted)

1998/99
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Watford – 5th (promoted through playoffs)
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Crystal Palace – 14th

1999/2000
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Fulham – 9th
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Nottingham Forest – 14th

2000/01
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Preston North End – 4th
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Watford – 9th

2001/02
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Millwall – 4th
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Bradford City – 15th

2002/03
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Brighton and Hove Albion – 23rd (relegated)
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Leicester City - 2nd (promoted)

2003/04
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Wigan Athletic – 7th
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Sunderland – 3rd

2004/05
Previous year’s Division 2 Champions: Plymouth Argyle – 17th
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Wolverhampton Wanderers – 9th

2005/06
Previous year’s League 1 Champions: Luton Town – 10th
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Southampton – 12th

2006/07
Previous year’s League 1 Champions: Southend United – 22nd (relegated)
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Sunderland – 1st (promoted)

2007/08
Previous year’s League 1 Champions: Scunthorpe United – 23rd (relegated)
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Watford – 6th

2008/09
Previous year’s League 1 Champions: Swansea City (currently 11th)
Bottom of Premier League in previous year: Derby County (currently 18th)

Not sure what that tells you, but it's pretty interesting!

[RichardL]

Originally Posted by EvanJ

In a League Championship season, what's the probability that the best of the three teams that was in League One the previous season will finish ahead of at least one of the three teams that was in the EPL the previous season?

Very high, in fact it's pretty much taken for granted.

I started doing what SheffWedFan had done or that exact question, but assuming you meant "the team that did best/worst in the next season" rather than comparing last in premier v champions of Lg 1, but found it a little futile and stopped - after 7 seasons or 81/2 there had only been two where all three promoted clubs had failed to finish higher than at least one relegated one.

Averaging out over those 7 seasons, promoted clubs actually achieved, on average, a fractionally higher placing than relegated ones - both finishing an average 10th or 11th. (10.5)


So I span on a bit, and just looked at the last 10 years, and there does seem to be a shift.
The first three years told a similar story, with at least two of the three promoted clubs doing better than the worst relegated team. In the last seven years though, no more than one of the promoted teams has done better than the relegated sides in any season. In two seasons all of the relegated sides did better than all of the promoted ones.


I think there are a couple of reasons for this. The obvious one is parachute money, and the higher standard of the premiership in general, meaning that unless clubs have to offload loads of players, they will usually be considerably better than most championship clubs.

The other is that the championship looks to be pulling away slightly from League 1. 10 years ago the median league 1 crowd was about 5,500, compared to about 13,500 in the championship. The league 1 median has risen by about 1000, but has gone up by nearly 4000 in the championship. While promoted clubs don't face anything like the same problems that clubs promoted to the premier do in bridging the gap (only 5 of the 30 clubs promoted from league 1 in the last 10 years have gone straight back down) it is harder than it was.

Relegated teams now on average, finish 8th or 9th (8.5), while promoted ones typically finish 14th (13.9).

[JackBastard]

I was going to post something similar, although I haven't actually done any research, that you'll actually find it very rare for teams to come straight up from L1 and go to the Premiership. Even Wigan, Fulham & Reading, who spent a lot of money for this division, didn't manage it straight away.

Looking at those D3 Champions since 96/97, only Wigan & Fulham (Prem) and Plymouth & Preston are still either at this level or above. (Discouting us, of course, because we have to be!). It is getting increasingly difficult for medium-sized clubs like Doncaster, Millwall, Southend etc. to establish themselves in the Championship. Over the last few seasons Rotherham, Gillingham, Crewe, Walsall, Luton, Southend & Scunthorpe have all come up, and gone back down within a season or two.

[RichardL]

Originally Posted by JackBastard

I was going to post something similar, although I haven't actually done any research, that you'll actually find it very rare for teams to come straight up from L1 and go to the Premiership. Even Wigan, Fulham & Reading, who spent a lot of money for this division, didn't manage it straight away.

Off topic, but it's one of the "problems" (there are obviously advantages) of having a rich chairman is that people seem to assume we got promotion through spending heavily for the championship, and we were bankrolled at substantial loss to go up.

In fact we had a below average wage bill for the division when we went up, and spent far less on the team than probably all the other promotion contenders. The only expensive players we had were Convey at £750,000 and Lita for £1 million, and they weren't bought in the same season.

[glennaldo_sf]

In general, teams being relegated from the premiership fare much better than teams promoted from League 1. It is very uncommon for teams to gain double-promotion within one season, in fact it only really happens once in a blue moon. Watford did it about 10 years agon, Bristol City almost did it last season, I can't think of anyone else who has done it in that quick a space of time. Maybe Manchester City...

On the other hand, it's quite usually for at least 1, 2 or sometimes all three relegated clubs to jump straight back up. Look at this season, Reading + Birmingham are the favorites to go straight back up, while Doncaster and Nottingham could go down. Swansea/Derby is the obvious outlier. However, Derby were clearly not prepared for promotion to the premiership last season and are currently performing accordingly.

[RichardL]

Originally Posted by glennaldo_sf

In general, teams being relegated from the premiership fare much better than teams promoted from League 1. It is very uncommon for teams to gain double-promotion within one season, in fact it only really happens once in a blue moon. Watford did it about 10 years agon, Bristol City almost did it last season, I can't think of anyone else who has done it in that quick a space of time. Maybe Manchester City...
.

it's certainly less common, but again going back to 81/82 as a nominal start point, it's happened 7 times since then - Oxford 85, Derby 87, Middlesbrough 88, Sheffield United 90, Notts County 91, Watford 98 and Man City 99.

[JackBastard]

Originally Posted by RichardL

Off topic, but it's one of the "problems" (there are obviously advantages) of having a rich chairman is that people seem to assume we got promotion through spending heavily for the championship, and we were bankrolled at substantial loss to go up.

It's something that I've heard quite a lot in regards to Reading, however he did still build a stadium for you, and did provide a lot of money towards wages. I understand though that he is trying to make the club self-sufficient, which can only be a good thing.

He's not done too badly for a man who used to own Auto Trader though!

[RichardL]

Originally Posted by JackBastard

It's something that I've heard quite a lot in regards to Reading, however he did still build a stadium for you, and did provide a lot of money towards wages.

It's an assumption people make. I think he bankrolled the debts in his earlier days (which were small by today's figures) but the stadium was built with a loan from him, which is still there on the books as a loan. And he has said he expects it to be paid back. Much of the stadium cost was actually thanks to the council as they gave us a huge site for £1, and we sold a chunk of it off to retailers for about £20 million.

I understand though that he is trying to make the club self-sufficient, which can only be a good thing.

The sad thing is that there are so many new fans these days who see how premiership clubs work with sugar daddies pumping in millions for a taste of glory, and assume that's how all chairman should run clubs. The assumptions being that a) - he can afford it so he should spend it like a "proper" chairman, and b) even if we can't afford it, it would be better to "go for broke" than accept mediocrity.

Yes, even at a club that's spent all but 2 years out of 138 outside the top division, there are fans who regard anything less than premiership football as "unacceptable"

He's not done too badly for a man who used to own Auto Trader though!

Autotrader is massive. There are autotraders all around the world.