MLS Attendance Analysis: Week 24

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Andy_B, Sep 2, 2008.

  1. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Code:
    % of season completed				
    73.30%				
    Year	Average	Median	%<10K	%>20k
    1996	18232	15711	22.2%	29.1%
    1997	14984	13136	19.7%	16.2%
    1998	14569	11871	24.3%	16.4%
    1999	14671	13128	30.7%	16.4%
    2000	13652	12792	35.7%	11.4%
    2001	14955	13844	27.0%	18.3%
    2002	15696	13507	19.6%	17.6%
    2003	14544	13357	25.5%	18.2%
    2004	15182	13122	27.3%	23.6%
    2005	14823	12167	30.0%	15.0%
    2006	15597	13084	20.7%	18.6%
    2007	15870	14351	9.8%	22.4%
    2008	16482	15188	11.0%	25.3%
    				
    				
    Final Numbers				
    Year	Average	Median	%<10K	%>20k
    1996	17406	15093	21.9%	26.3%
    1997	14619	12733	25.0%	16.3%
    1998	14312	11871	26.6%	16.1%
    1999	14282	12973	32.3%	15.1%
    2000	13756	12690	34.4%	12.5%
    2001	14962	13431	26.6%	17.7%
    2002	15821	14108	17.1%	18.6%
    2003	14898	13641	23.3%	18.0%
    2004	15559	13285	24.7%	25.3%
    2005	15108	12619	27.1%	17.7%
    2006	15504	14175	18.8%	18.8%
    2007	16770	15353	8.2%	29.7%
    
     
  2. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Average: 2nd out of 13
    Median: 2nd out of 13
    <10k: 2nd out of 13
    >20k: 2nd out of 13


    AAQ remains a rock solid 2
     
  3. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Can MLS have a higher 2008 mean attendance than in 2007? With two teams playing most of their games in 10,000 seat stadiums? In a bad economy?

    The <10,000 stat is simply amazing. From my eagle-eye vantage point, the only teams that seem to regularly pad attendances this year are NY & Colorado.
     
  4. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In last weeks thread, lawrenceterp performed a nice analysis of the 4 categories. It does seem statistically difficult to beat last years mean when looking at the remaining games.
     
  5. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think the point was that we have no business being even close to last year's numbers, given the current circumstances.
     
  6. Grumpy in LA

    Grumpy in LA Bringing It Since 1807™

    Sep 10, 2007
    Chicago
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's a good thing that we don't count players in the attendance stats, or all the international call-ups would be killing us until season's end. [/threadjack]

    Yeah, the resilience of attendance under current conditions is surprising. I'm tempted to think that MLS may be benefiting from the poor economy in a roundabout way. Tickets are cheaper than Am. football and even cheaper than baseball most of the time, so maybe people (parents, I'd guess) are taking their kids to the soccer game instead. Not that I have a shred of evidence to back that up, of course.
     
  7. lawrenceterp

    lawrenceterp Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 2, 2006
    Virginia
    I'm going to try and follow up Andy's post each week with these numbers as well. I have my spreadsheet set up to automate all these numbers. I just plug in the official attendance for every game and it spits these out for me.

    This is where we stand on all four of the measures we study. We have 56 to go. In those 56 games we need.....

    Average
    to get 1st - 1,117,748 (19,960 per game)
    to get 2nd - 983,467 (17,562 per game)
    to get 3rd - 784,751 (14,013 per game)

    Median
    to get 1st - 32 games higher then 15,353
    to get 2nd - 28 games higher then 15,093
    to get 3rd - 18 games higher then 14,175

    %<10K
    to get 1st - 0 games lower then 10,000 (1 more and we're 2nd at best)
    to get 2nd - no more then 18 games lower then 10,000
    to get 3rd - no more then 22 games lower then 10,000

    %>20k
    to get 1st - 24 games higher then 20,000
    to get 2nd - 17 games higher then 20,000
    to get 3rd - 15 games higher then 20,000
     
  8. Grumpy in LA

    Grumpy in LA Bringing It Since 1807™

    Sep 10, 2007
    Chicago
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    etc.

    Thanks for these numbers.

    But it's "than," not "then." [/pedantry]
     
  9. Toronto Red

    Toronto Red Member

    Jan 8, 2006
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Scotland
    I'm betting TFC's attendance on Saturday is the lowest in our History. Canada is playing and with all the reserves out, I would expect a poorer turnout.
     
  10. TapocoL

    TapocoL Member

    Feb 7, 2007
    Bay Area, CA
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Im a little confused... 2nd and 3rd should not be exact numbers, but should be ranges. So, is 2nd place 983,467 - 1,117,747? And 1st I am assuming is 1,117,748 and above.
     
  11. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    you are correct. read it like this to make it easier (the ranges are implied)

    to get 1st - >1,117,748 (19,960 per game)
    to get 2nd - >983,467 (17,562 per game)
    to get 3rd - >784,751 (14,013 per game)
     
  12. cleazer

    cleazer Member+

    May 6, 2003
    Toledo, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks for posting these numbers again.

    Last week's average was over 17.5K. This week's average should be pretty darn close to it too. Maybe this race for 2nd will turn out to be a little bit closer than I expected.


    We had that one RSL game last week that was 15.2K. If only an extra 100 people would've shown up, we could be in good shape to get the best median of all time.
     
  13. cleazer

    cleazer Member+

    May 6, 2003
    Toledo, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    7140 in Dallas tonight. Is that the second smallest crowd of the season? (Behind only the Crew's 6733 from back in April?)
     
  14. STpassion

    STpassion Red Card

    Apr 7, 2008
    South of Turnpike
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wow. So much for SSS. All 7140 were seated behind the camera.
    Pretty good game though.
     
  15. El Naranja

    El Naranja Member+

    Sep 5, 2006
    Alief
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They certainly did us a lot of favors with that.....:rolleyes:
     
  16. Beerking

    Beerking Member+

    Nov 14, 2000
    Humboldt County
    Move Dallas.
     
  17. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Can you explain this? It seems really random.
     
  18. El Naranja

    El Naranja Member+

    Sep 5, 2006
    Alief
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think he is referring to the myth that SSS' increase attendance....
     
  19. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Wow, how did you not get what he was saying?
     
  20. cleazer

    cleazer Member+

    May 6, 2003
    Toledo, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It was tough to tell whether he really thought SSS's increased attendance or not.
     
  21. holiday

    holiday Member+

    Oct 16, 2007
    7k for dallas. let's see...
    first night of nfl football, and although the cowboys weren't playing, it was two teams from their division. i guess that's enough for football crazy texas.
    otoh, the nfl is not about to go away. and here i'd like to make an mls scheduling remark, or actually two.
    mls pbl knows when nfl opening night will be, although it does not know the opening game yet. but to be safe they might schedule the galaxy that night (no nfl in la) instead of going 'head on' with the nfl interest in a city like dallas.
    also... iirc, last week there was no thursday night game. i believe that was due to espn wanting to launch the college football season. this week, otoh, they put mls up as a sort of sacrificial lamb against the nfl. of course it'd have been nicer for mls to have a game last thursday, and skip this week. but i realize that's beyond their control.
     
  22. cleazer

    cleazer Member+

    May 6, 2003
    Toledo, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I find it hard to believe that the NFL had much to do with Thursday night's low attendance.
     
  23. John_Harkes_6

    John_Harkes_6 New Member

    Mar 29, 2000
    Baltimore, MD.
    Yeah - team with crappy record + bad attendance record this year + Thursday night = craptacular attendance
     
  24. evangel

    evangel Member+

    Apr 12, 2007
    Yeah, it was basically Dallas just being Dallas.
     
  25. El Naranja

    El Naranja Member+

    Sep 5, 2006
    Alief
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And here I thought it was because management closed off half of the parking lot and didn't open concessions on time....:rolleyes:

    Silly me

    :p
     

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