[schrutebuck]

This is just a copy of a thread in the USYNT forum, but I figured it would be convenient to have in the official Group B forum also. Credit for the work can be given to both giffenbone and I, because we each separately figured these scenarios out.


Regulations of the Olympic Football Tournaments

http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tour...fen%5f6198.pdf

Group tiebreakers, which are on pg. 31 of the rules, are:

1. total points
2. goal difference
3. goals scored

if two or more teams are still deadlocked

4. most points from matches involving the tied teams
5. greatest goal difference from matches involving the tied teams
6. most goals scored in matches involving the tied teams
7. fair play system (least yellow and red cards)
8. drawings

The following scenarios can occur in the final games.

US wins/Netherlands wins - US/Netherlands advances
US wins/Netherlands ties - US/Nigeria advance
US wins/Netherlands loses - US/Nigeria advance

US ties/Netherlands wins - nightmare scenario+
US ties/Netherlands ties - US/Nigeria advance
US ties/Netherlands loses - US/Nigeria advance

US loses/Netherlands wins - Nigeria/Netherlands advance
US loses/Netherlands ties - Nigeria/US advance
US loses/Netherlands loses - Nigeria/US advance



+This outcome which has Netherlands/Nigeria/US on 5 points has the following possibilities:

*Netherlands win by multiple goals or 1 goal by a score of 2-1, 3-2, etc. - Netherlands/US advance
*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie of 0-0 - US/Netherlands advance, because of identical group stats FIFA fair play system determines 1st and 2nd
*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie of 1-1 - US/Netherlands advance
*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie of 2-2 - US advances, FIFA fair play system decides 2nd between Nigeria/Netherlands

*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie of 3-3 or more - US/Nigeria advance

Netherlands - has to win to advance, can only win the group if US/Nigeria ends up as a tie and they beat Japan by specific margins
Nigeria - if they win US/Nigeria they get first, other outcomes with Nigeria advancing basically require a loss or tie for Netherlands
US - eliminated only with loss and Netherlands victory over Japan, nearly guaranteed first unless Nigeria game ends up a loss
Japan - hopefully goes all out against Netherlands

[Maruti]

I'm not sure the nightmare scenario is accurate. If for egzample Nigeria and USA tie 3:3 and Holland win 2:1 than Nigeria has a goal ratio of 5:4, USA of 6:5 and Holland of 4:3. Hence Nigeria and USA advance.

If Nigeria ties high with the USA then Holland need to score at least the same amount of goals as Nigeria and win (or win by at least 2 goals).

[TC4life]

interesting

[schrutebuck]

Originally Posted by Maruti

I'm not sure the nightmare scenario is accurate. If for egzample Nigeria and USA tie 3:3 and Holland win 2:1 than Nigeria has a goal ratio of 5:4, USA of 6:5 and Holland of 4:3. Hence Nigeria and USA advance.

If Nigeria ties high with the USA then Holland need to score at least the same amount of goals as Nigeria and win (or win by at least 2 goals).

Thanks for the catch

This is my attempt at fixing it. I'm almost certain there are mistakes but my brain needs a break.

Nightmare Scenario

*Netherlands wins by multiple goals, US/Nigeria tie by any score - Netherlands/US advance
*Netherlands wins by one goal margin, US/Nigeria tie with a final score at least two goals less than Netherlands (example NED/J@P 3-2, USA/NIG 1-1) - Netherlands/US advance
*Netherlands wins by one goal margin, US/Nigeria tie with a final score one goal less than Netherlands (example NED/J@P 3-2, USA/NIG 2-2) - US/Netherlands advance
*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie 0-0 - US/Netherlands advance, because of identical group stats FIFA fair play system determines 1st and 2nd
*Netherlands 1-0 win, US/Nigeria tie 1-1 - US/Netherlands advance due to most goals scored in games among the three teams
*Netherlands 2-1 win, US/Nigeria tie 2-2 - US advances, because of identical Nigeria/Netherlands group stats FIFA fair play system determines 2nd and 3rd
*Netherlands wins by one goal margin at a higher score than 2-1, US/Nigeria tie with a final score with equal goals scored to the Netherlands (example NED/J@P 3-2, USA/NIG 3-3) – US/Nigeria advance
*Netherlands wins by one goal margin, US/Nigeria tie with a final score at least one goal higher than Netherlands (example NED/J@P 2-1, USA/NIG 3-3) - US/Nigeria advance

[DonJuego]

What am I missing?

Any tie between the US and Nigeria leaves the US ahead of Nigeria because of goals scored. Going in the US has scored 3 goals. Nigeria 2.

So if the US wins or draws the US advances. Period.

EDIT: OK. Looks like we are on the same page now.

[schrutebuck]

To summarize, if the nightmare scenario occurs:

US can finish 1st or 2nd
Nigeria can finish 2nd or 3rd
Netherlands can finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd

[DonJuego]

Just a thought -- but how big is Japan's goal in the last 15 minutes against Nigeria?

Without that goal Nigeria would lead the group and would advance over the USA if we draw Wednesday.

[johan neeskens]

All I know is that the Dutch go through if they beat Japan with a two goal difference.

[EdsonArantes]

Originally Posted by johan neeskens

All I know is that the Dutch go through if they beat Japan with a two goal difference.

No. Dutch do not control their own destiny. They must win, then it also depends on the outcome of Nigeria - USA.

[EvanJ]

Originally Posted by EdsonArantes

No. Dutch do not control their own destiny. They must win, then it also depends on the outcome of Nigeria - USA.

They do not control their own destiny in terms of simply needing a win, but they advance with a win by two or more goals.
In a group with this format, the most points a third place team can possibly have is 6 if three countries have two wins and one loss and the fourth country loses all three. After the United States won and the other game was a draw on the first matchday, that meant that any country with 6 or more points would advance. This makes me want to look up for the last three World Cups since the field expanded to 32 how many teams had a chance to clinch advancement on the second group stage matchday and how many of those teams advanced on the second matchday, advanced on the third matchday, and did not advance.