[JaredSS07]

What are your picks for the Iowa Caucuses?

My picks:
GOP
1. Romney
2. Thompson
3. Huckabee
4. McCain
5. Giuliani


DEM
1. Clinton
2. Edwards
3. Obama

[ToonUSA]

GOP:
Romney (My man for the white house)
Huckabee
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain

Dems:
Edwards
Clinton
Obama

[colinh9]

Wish I could have thrown in my predictions for tonight, I would have been spot on! Oh well. Anyways, who are you two pulling for? What are your thoughts on New Hampshire now?

It will be quite interesting to see which direction the polls go tomorrow in NH.

[ToonUSA]

Jesus, what a shocker in my eyes. Romney defeated by that large a margin concerns me.

Obama also is a scary opponent for Republicans. I'd rather Hillary to run against because she won't ever, ever win.

[tigerdave]

Originally Posted by colinh9

Wish I could have thrown in my predictions for tonight, I would have been spot on! Oh well.

I won the Iowa Caucus office pool! ...seriously, I did.

[JaredSS07]

Dem:
Obama has never won a big election by himself. Twice in his Senate campaign his opponent's divorce records were released and killed them. I think he has the popularity and media storm to do well, but I don't think he has the campaign staff behind him to compete in all the necessary primary states.

If Edwards can turn his 2nd place into gold, we will see him ramp up fast. Since the media is loving the Dem primary, name ID is not the issue but fav/unfav is. If he can drive up Obama's unfavs, while keeping the blood off his hands he can win it all. Most likely Hillary will attack Obama like crazy and hope to make it a two man race. That will allow Edwards to keep his unfavs low while his opponent’s unfavs shoot through the roof.

Hillary is a bitch.

GOP:
Romney made a big mistake by putting all his hopes into GOTV. One thing we learned from 2004 and 2006 is that Victory-style GOTV efforts work well with an incumbent, but not with open or challenger races. Personally, I am really happy Romney is falling fast.

Fred has no money and mo problems. He could barely afford TV and mail in Iowa. I doubt he has the cash to make a stand in SC. Since he is basically skipping NH, he won't get as much earned media and new donors as the other candidates.

Huckabee's campaign manager is a douche bag. Once the earned media falls off and the primary grind starts, we will see a new side of the happy Huckster. They are also skipping NH, hoping to make a stand in SC.

Rudy is the one to watch now. He has one of the best campaign managers in the country, who also has the newest and craziest strategy for winning the primary season. As much as I unsure of his strategy, I am very sure that DuHaime is one of the best and brightest in the GOP.

[ToonUSA]

Originally Posted by JaredSS07

GOP:
Romney made a big mistake by putting all his hopes into GOTV. One thing we learned from 2004 and 2006 is that Victory-style GOTV efforts work well with an incumbent, but not with open or challenger races. Personally, I am really happy Romney is falling fast.

Fred has no money and mo problems. He could barely afford TV and mail in Iowa. I doubt he has the cash to make a stand in SC. Since he is basically skipping NH, he won't get as much earned media and new donors as the other candidates.

Huckabee's campaign manager is a douche bag. Once the earned media falls off and the primary grind starts, we will see a new side of the happy Huckster. They are also skipping NH, hoping to make a stand in SC.

Rudy is the one to watch now. He has one of the best campaign managers in the country, who also has the newest and craziest strategy for winning the primary season. As much as I unsure of his strategy, I am very sure that DuHaime is one of the best and brightest in the GOP.

What's wrong with Romney?

Also, what is Rudy's big plan?

[JaredSS07]

Originally Posted by ToonUSA

What's wrong with Romney?

Romney is an opportunist. You can’t nail him down on what he believes and he can’t defend his record. When running in liberal Massachusetts, he was very liberal. Now that he is running nationwide, he tried to quickly bump up his conservative credentials. Yet, he still talks on both sides of an issue depending on what group he is talking to. I know he claims that he was wrong and had a large change in his life, but I don’t believe it. I think that is a very well crafted talking point designed to entice evangelicals. That leads to my biggest problem with him. He doesn’t seem trustworthy. He is too polished and too self-important to be taken at his word. I always feel like I am being sold something. I see him as the GOP equivalent of John Kerry.

Plus, never get the feeling that he is in the race for the betterment of the country, but he is in it to add another notch to his belt.

Originally Posted by ToonUSA

Also, what is Rudy's big plan?

"Within the campaign, he is regarded as an early believer in the theory - still untested - that the pro-choice Giuliani can afford to do only moderately well in Iowa and New Hampshire, as long as he stages a big win Jan. 29 in Florida and slingshots into Feb. 5. Some 20 states will hold primaries that day."

Here is a good article on DuHaime. Him and my boss worked together on BC04 and our company worked with him while he was the Pol. Director at the RNC.

[JaredSS07]

Most accurate political poll this year...

[ToonUSA]

Originally Posted by JaredSS07

Most accurate political poll this year...

That was rather amusing.