[Justin O]

I've gone through the posts on here since the middle of April and have come up with the following figures on betting long shots (5.00 or higher) in MLS. Hopeully my info is accurate as I put this together kind of hurriedly. Below are all the games this year in which teams have been priced at 5.00 or higher, and the results of those games. The prices are winnings (black) or losses (red) assuming one put a $10 bet down on the long shot for every match. I reviewed this fairly quickly so hopefully my numbers are accurate.

May 10 Columbus v Colorado 1.53 3.40 5.50 (CLB 2, COL 0) -$10
May 24 Metrostars v Dallas Burn 1.50 3.50 5.50 (MET 2, DAL 1) -$10
May 25 Chicago v Colorado 1.55 3.25 5.50 (CHI 4, COL 0) -$10
May 31 San Jose Earthquakes vs Chicago Fire 1.72 3.42 5.00 (SJ 1, CHI 4) +40
June 18 Chicago vs Dallas 1.82 3.43 5.61 (CHI 4, DAL 1) -$10
June 28 New England vs Colorado 1.80 3.75 5.75 (NE 3, COL 2) -$10
June 28 Los Angeles vs Dallas 1.83 3.75 5.75 (LA 3, DAL 0) -$10
July 9 Los Angeles vs Colorado 1.75 3.85 6.50 (LA 0, COL 1) +$55
July 12 Kansas City vs Dallas 1.65 3.75 6.50 (KC 5, DAL 1) -$10
July 12 San Jose vs Colorado 1.60 3.50 6.00 (SJ 0, COL 2) +$50
July 16 NE Revolution vs Dallas Burn 1.60 3.20 5.00 (NE 1, DAL 2) +$40

4 of 11 long shots won

Risked $110
Lost bets $70
Won bets $185
Profit $115 (104%)

Betting only 6.00 or higher (3 matches total)

2 of 3 long shots won

Risked $30
Lost bets -$10
Won bets +$105
Profit $95 (316%)

I don't have access to prices of the season's first 6 matches, but there were almost certainly no heavy favorites or significant long shots in those matches, so I'm sure they wouldn't figure in this. About two thirds of these prices were obtained from a the bettingadvice odds checker, though it should be noted that in every case Canbet provides either the highest price or very close to the highest price. The other prices, which I got before noticing the odds checker, were obtained by just shopping around among 5-10 bookmakers for the highest price. In any case the odds checker does not always succeed in finding the highest price so, while these prices are very good, it's not unrealistic to have gotten these figures for every match.

As this has really seemed to be the case for the last 2 and a half years I'm certain this is not a unique occurence to the 2003 season. Clearly there are 2 things to know about betting MLS. One, don't ever bet heary favorites! It's never worth the risk! Second, always take long shots and you'll come out on top in the end. We'll see how this continues for the rest of the season. I've told people who bet but know nothing about MLS, or in some cases nothing about soccer, that if they just take long shots consistantly they'll come out ahead. Now I have some numbers as evidence!

One other interesting note, it often seems a good idea to put a small stake on a draw to cover for that outcome. Typically such long shots, in every case the road team, will be more than happy with a draw and are very likely to be content with, and play for, that result if the game is tied late. However, not one of the eleven matches above ended in a draw after 90 minutes, so covering for a draw would have increased losses or decreased winnings for every match. That was certainly not something I expected.

[Eric B]

(Sorry for addressing something this old, but I don't frequent this thread much...)

This is very interesting. Has this changed much since July? Has the fact that Dallas is really bad meant more lines over 5.00? Has there ever been a line for a draw over 5.00?

[Justin O]

Things have balancd out somewhat since July, but that could change quickly. For a price of 5.00 on a draw you pretty much need a match-up along the lines of England-Liechtenstein.