[R] Low Scoring Playoffs + Playoff format discussion

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by The Perfesser, Oct 27, 2007.

  1. The Perfesser

    The Perfesser New Member

    May 23, 1999
    AthensGA/NewburyptMA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    OK, gang with 3 of 4 of the first legs of the conference semis going to the home team 1:0 and the other going 0:0, prepare yourselves for both soccer bashers gloating and league officials wringing their hands about what to do.

    We'll soon see recommendations from MLS officials to go back to "Doug Logan style" formats such as "best of 3" and "first to 5", both of which were relegated to the dustbin of history with the CrapShootouts, and rightfully so.

    What do do?

    Why do American soccer officials insist on trying to re-invent the wheel? there are two solutions that have been used for two leg competitions in other soccer leagues for decades and have a much better chance of avoiding producing only 3 goals in 4 games:

    • Away goals as the first tiebreaker (widely used around the world)
    • Higher seeded team gets the first tiebreaker (Mexican "Liguilla" system)

    Both create the incentive to score, not hope for 0:0 in the first leg and then take it home.

    Come on MLS, look around and see what works in the world's game.
     
  2. socluis90

    socluis90 Member+

    Aug 11, 2004
    So Cal
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    I love this format. It rewards the higher seed making the season more valuable and it also eliminates the extra time or PK's.
     
  3. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    Of course, the best option is to decide the championship over the course of the ~200 game regular season, since then the excitement or lack of for any one game or series won't be magnified.

    (runs)

    And also of course, you can't judge this season's playoffs based on the first weekend. According to MLS playoff history, we can expect this year's postseason scoring to be 6.9% less than the regular season. So with an average of 518/195 = 2.66 in the regular season, we should see 2.47 goals a game in the playoffs. Or 27 in 11 games. Probably won't hit that now, but let's just see.
     
  4. monster

    monster Member

    Oct 19, 1999
    Hanover, PA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    Or they could do one-off matches like a few unimportant tournaments that happen in four-year cycles do.
     
  5. The Perfesser

    The Perfesser New Member

    May 23, 1999
    AthensGA/NewburyptMA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    That's what they do for the conference final. The reason for not doing this in the conference semis is so that ALL the playoff teams can have at least one home match.
     
  6. Michigan Bayern Fan

    Michigan Bayern Fan New Member

    Aug 20, 2006
    Melvindale, Michigan
    Concern about playoff format

    As a traditionalist, it took me many years to accept the playoff system that MLS uses to determine their champion. I understood that the two-leg aggregate goals setup was established because it is a fairer method of deciding the better team. If this is so, why isn't the two-leg series continued in the conference championship? Having a one-game championship subjects the competition to luck, which is what the two-leg series was supposed to prevent. I understand that the final is a one game affair due to TV, but why isn't the conference championship a two leg series?
     
  7. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Concern about playoff format

    Because home field advantage is a reward for regular season success.
     
  8. UNION S.C.

    UNION S.C. Member

    Feb 15, 2007
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    I like the home and home series. I think the league should do it in the next round too instead of just 1 game.
     
  9. MasterShake29

    MasterShake29 Member+

    Oct 28, 2001
    Jersey City, NJ
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Concern about playoff format

    That's not correct. The 2 leg system was established so that there would be schedule certainty over the best-to-something format used previously, while still ensuring every team in the playoffs got a game at home.
     
  10. the stranger

    the stranger New Member

    Dec 20, 2005
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    ==

    Higher seeded team starts with 0.242 goals (or any arbitrary number between 0 and 1). Seems a bit contrived
     
  11. Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    welcome to the first leg of the playoffs. the games always suck.
     
  12. Re: Concern about playoff format

    Then why isnt that applied in the first round also?
     
  13. sidefootsitter

    sidefootsitter Member+

    Oct 14, 2004
    Re: Concern about playoff format

    The system was the result of the Hunts having too many votes.

    It's a bad system.
     
  14. sidefootsitter

    sidefootsitter Member+

    Oct 14, 2004
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    One-offs introduce too much of a random element.

    I prefer the Mexican system, which was intentionally designed to give the advantage to the higher seed.

    The "away goal" rule is neutral and is designed to promote a more aggressive away play in Cup type events where all teams are deemed equal.

    The Mexican system rewards the team performances during the regular season and that should be where MLS is headed.
     
  15. profiled

    profiled Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 7, 2000
    slightly north of a mile high
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    The away goals rule just scares home teams to really press for it, they know that going to the other leg at 0-0 is better then trying to go forward and giving up a goal which can kill them.
     
  16. The Artist

    The Artist Member+

    Mar 22, 1999
    Illinois
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    If you are the higher seeded team how does having the first tiebreaker discourage you from playing for a draw on the road? If anything it encourages you to play for the draw in both legs.

    I actually like that as a tie breaker I just don't think it has anything to do with scoring.

    Away goals is arbitrary, and I seriously doubt it has much effect on actual strategies.

    Perhaps, like all American sports, scoring is down in the playoffs because the crappy teams that are easy to score against are eliminated and both teams come into the game fully rested and intent on not making mistakes on a national stage? No, it must be the format.
     
  17. Ghost

    Ghost Member+

    Sep 5, 2001
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    Could it be that most of the weaker playoff teams are good enough to eek out 1-0 wins at home, but not strong enough to really outgun their opponents?
     
  18. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    The goals per game average for the first round of the 2007 conference semifinals was a whopping .75 goals per game. That is (by far) the lowest ever since the two game playoff series was introduced. It's nearly a goal a game less than average, and it's half a goal a game less than the previous worst year. The good news is that every year the 2nd round games feature many more goals ... on average nearly double, in fact.
    Code:
    [U]Goals Per Game - 1st Round[/U]
    
    [I]2007: .75 GPG[/I]
    2006: 2 GPG
    2005: 1.25 GPG
    2004: 1.5 GPG
    2003: 2 GPG
    
    2003-2006 Average: 1.7 GPG
    
    [U]Goals Per Game - 2nd Round[/U]
    
    2007: TBA
    2006: 3 GPG
    2005: 3.5 GPG
    2004: 2.25 GPG
    2003: 3.25 GPG
    
    2003-2006 Average: 3 GPG
    
    Another interesting tidbit: since 2003 the higher seed has won the series about 70% of the time.

    Here's all the data if you want to look further.

    Code:
    [U]2006[/U]
    
    NYR 0 :: 1 DCU
    DCU 1 :: 1 NYR
    
    COL 1 :: 2 FCD
    FCD 2 :: 3 COL (COL on PKs)
    
    CHI 1 :: 0 NER
    NER 2 :: 1 CHI (NER on PKs)
    
    CDC 2 :: 1 HOU
    HOU 2 :: 0 CDC
    
    [U]2005[/U]
    
    CHI 0 :: 0 DCU
    DCU 0 :: 4 CHI 
    
    NYM 1 :: 0 NER
    NER 3 :: 1 NYM
    
    COL 0 :: 0 FCD
    FCD 2 :: 2 COL (COL on PKs)
    
    LAG 3 :: 1 SJE
    SJE 1 :: 1 LAG
    
    [U]2004[/U]
    
    NER 1 :: 0 CMB
    CMB 1 :: 1 NER
    
    NYM 0 :: 2 DCU
    DCU 2 :: 0 NYM
    
    SJE 2 :: 0 KCW
    KCW 3 :: 0 SJE
    
    COL 1 :: 0 LAG
    LAG 2 :: 0 COL
    
    [U]2003[/U]
    
    DCU 0 :: 2 CHI
    CHI 2 :: 0 DCU
    
    NYM 0 :: 2 NER
    NER 1 :: 1 NYM
    
    LAG 2 :: 0 SJE
    SJE 5 :: 2 LAG 
    
    COL 1 :: 1 KCW
    KCW 2 :: 0 COL
     
  19. The Artist

    The Artist Member+

    Mar 22, 1999
    Illinois
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Concern about playoff format

    There is no perfect playoff system. They all have pluses and minuses. The current system is the result of a series of compromises between different needs of the fans and the league. It stretches the playoffs a week longer than single elimination to make it feel like more of a journey than a single blip at the end of the season, yet avoids the drag of the NBA playoffs or the scheduling problems of best of three. It gives every team a home game which is important for developing fans, yet offers some reward to regular season finish in the conference finals. It combines a familiar international playoff format with a familiar American playoff format. It, perhaps, makes it less likely that a single bad game or bad call will eliminate a top team in the first round, yet leaves open the possibility of memorable upsets.

    The current system doesn't do a great job at satisfying any one need or desire but it does a pretty good job of doing a little bit of everything.
     
  20. Eliezar

    Eliezar Member+

    Jan 27, 2002
    Houston
    Club:
    12 de Octubre
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    Well teams are playing different. They are staying compact and not advancing as a team. Chicago and Dallas did that anyway.

    I have a feeling that Houston, DC, and Chivas are going to be looking at 10 men behind the ball in the 2nd leg matches. (Although not seeing KC I have no idea how they will approach it)
     
  21. Nico Limmat

    Nico Limmat Member+

    Oct 24, 1999
    Dubai, UAE
    Club:
    Grasshopper Club Zürich
    Nat'l Team:
    Switzerland
    Re: Concern about playoff format

    I still much prefer the system used in the Mexican Liguilla. Two legs for conference semis and final with the higher seed advancing if the aggregate score is tied. It rewards the regular season and eliminates the random element of a single game.
     
  22. lawrenceterp

    lawrenceterp Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 2, 2006
    Virginia
    Re: Concern about playoff format

    Very well said. I think you covered just about every issue here.
     
  23. roadkit

    roadkit Greetings from the Fringe of Obscurity

    Jul 2, 2003
    Fornax Cluster
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Concern about playoff format

    One possible format I have thougrht would be interesting is a regular season consisting of home-and-away (each team plays every other team once) followed by a World Cup style format where the top 6 or 8 teams (more once the league expands) are drawn into two pots (the top two teams would be seeded into separate pots) and then they play a home-and-away round with the top two teams moving into single-elimination with the top teams in each pot taking homefield advantage for the single-elimination game.

    One of many possibilities. That said, I don't have any particular heartburn with the way things are done now. It is what it is.
     
  24. robviii

    robviii Member

    Dec 21, 2001
    Chicago
    Re: Concern about playoff format

    This gets my vote too.

    I think the final game between LA and Chicago is the perfect example of what you get when these are the background rules.

    Chicago was ranked higher. LA showed up needing to win in order to advance. Chicago went through with just a tie.

    However, because of the dynamics of this system, it forced LA to attack in order to advance, but it also forced Chicago to attack in order to prevent LA going through on a last-minute-miracle. It created a lot of tension and drama. That roar of the crowd when Thorrington lobbed Cannon was a combination of joy and relief, and it was awesome!

    The playoffs, in a figurative sense, had already begun. And the fact that Chicago went through with a tie, added to this.

    My vote is to adopt the Mexican system: reward the higher-placed team by allowing them to get through with a tie, and force the underdog to win it outright. You set up better and more dramatic games.
     
  25. Autogolazo

    Autogolazo BigSoccer Supporter

    Feb 19, 2000
    Bombay Beach, CA
    Re: [R] Low Scoring Playoffs

    Chivas and DC looked more than happy down 1-0, Houston somewhat less so.

    It's as if we've arrived at a scoreline that both teams can agree upon, spin in their own way, claim as victory.

    That's just poison to watch.

    If the league can have different rules for the first round of the playoffs (two legs) and the second (one game), then the two-legged round should follow the Mexican league rule that the lower seed has to outscore the higher seed over the two legs or go out.

    Anything to give more weight to the regular season, and to further encourage teams in the race for 2nd place in each conference. This would make the end of the regular season even more exciting, so teams already in the playoffs won't be so inclined to just mail it in.
     

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