(Cross-posted to Climbing the Ladder) The new FIFA rankings are out for August. This will start to get really exciting with the December edition, after the qualifying draws are done in late November. That's also the first month of the three that get locked into place for the rankings half of the formula. Top 7 teams seeded (South Africa automatically seeded as hosts) Code: Total WC FIFA 1 Brazil 61.3 29.3 32 2 Germany 58.3 30.3 28 3 Italy 57.3 27.3 30 4 France 52.3 23.3 29 5 Argentina 52.0 21.0 31 6 Spain 50.3 25.3 25 7 England 47.3 26.3 21 8 Portugal 45.3 22.3 23 9 Mexico 41.3 19.3 22 10 Netherlands 40.7 14.7 26 11 Croatia 36.0 9.0 27 12 Ukraine 34.7 16.7 18 13 Czech 30.0 6.0 24 14 USA 29.7 13.7 16 15 Paraguay 22.2 11.7 10.5 16 Japan 20.3 13.3 7 16 Serbia 20.3 5.3 15 18 Romania 20.0 0.0 20 18 Cameroon 20.0 3.0 17 20 Korea 19.7 15.7 4 21 Greece 19.0 0.0 19 22 Cote d'Ivoire 18.0 6.0 12 23 Uruguay 16.7 2.7 14 23 Tunisia 16.7 8.7 8 25 Australia 16.3 11.3 5 26 Nigeria 15.7 2.7 13 27 Iran 11.3 5.3 6 28 Saudi Arabia 11.0 8.0 3 29 Colombia 10.5 0.0 10.5 30 Costa Rica 10.3 8.3 2 31 Morocco 9.0 0.0 9 32 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1 Tunisia and Saudi Arabia are in the formula this month in place of Ghana and Uzbekistan. Portugal's slight drop in the FIFA rankings causes them to drop to 8th. Their draw against Armenia can't help for next month. Teams like Croatia and Czech Republic may be high in the formula, but they have no real shot due to their poor World Cup performance. They're about as high as they can get currently. Thanks to eldiablito and Edgar for their work on this in previous months. FAQ Why is this list different than FIFA's Coca-Cola rankings? Because Fifa's Coca-Cola rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula. What is the seeding formula used for? The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage. What is the seeding formula exactly? The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 2 world cups and the FIFA rankings. Part A: World Cup performance = (2002*1+2006*2)/3 Part B: FIFA Ranking = (12/2007 rank+12/2008 rank+11/2009 rank)/3 Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula For the purposes of this showing you the current standings in this thread, the current FIFA rank will count as all three years. How is the world cup performance determined? 0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year. The 16 teams that didn't make it out of the group stage are ranked (Points, GD, GF). The bottom 8 get 8 points each. The top 8 get 9 points each. All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points. How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded? Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point. If two or more teams have the same FIFA ranking, the points are not divided among them. Instead, the one shown first in the FIFA rankings gets the most points and so on. How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula? I pick the countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation. For example, the best 13 UEFA teams by FIFA ranking since 13 UEFA teams will qualify. This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind. 13.0-UEFA 6.0-CAF (5+host) 4.5-AFC 4.5-CONMEBOL 3.5-CONCACAF 0.5-OFC Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula? No, it might change slightly. For 2006 they only used the previous 2 World Cups instead of 3 like before. But they've been using the same basic formula since 1994. Previous Editions July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 June 2007 July 2007
Mock Draw Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Ukraine Pot 3: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Morocco, Nigeria, Paraguay, Tunisia, Uruguay Pot 4: Australia, Costa Rica, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, USA Group A: South Africa, Ukraine, Colombia, USA Group B: Spain, Czech Republic, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia Group C: Germany, Serbia, Morocco, Costa Rica Group D: Argentina, Netherlands, Cameroon, Japan Group E: England, Croatia, Uruguay, Mexico Group F: Italy, Greece, Cote d'Ivoire, Australia Group G: France, Romania, Paraguay, Korea Group H: Brazil, Portugal, Tunisia, Iran
Yeah, uh, I think that's probably an overstatement. "vaguely noteworthy" I could go for, but "really exciting"? J
Group D: Argentina, Netherlands, Cameroon, Japan Group F: Italy, Greece, Cote d'Ivoire, Australia Neither of those groups looks fun...
Or the USA. Even if by some miracle of space-time continuum stretching the US went to the top of the FIFA rankings at the end of the year and the next two, they would still only have 45.7 points. Ahead of Portugal, but still behind the others in the top 7. I'll take that Group A, though.
That's why UEFA qualifying is a big deal. It's important to be sitting in the #8 or 9 spots in case someone in Europe slips. It didn't happen in '06, but it has in the past. Still, I'm not holding my breath for the US to get a seed. But I do feel that Mexico, should they get it, would be deserving. And, hell, ya, I'll take Group A!
Agreed on all three points. As far as "most likely to drop out", England look particularly vulnerable (and not merely because their sitting at the low position). Between their current lack of quality, match fit strikers and McClaren's inability to provide leadership, they will be fortunate to qualify for Euro '08.
Mexico would have a remote, but better than USA, chance of making a seed. They'll probably stay about where they are in the Coca-Cola rankings through December; if they pull out a win in their upcoming friendly with Brazil they may even advance a little. If they could move up into about 6th or 7th place for the next two years, they probably would move ahead of Portugal in the seeding formula. Still not in the top 7, but right there waiting for one of the Euros to fail to qualify.
It'll be hard for Mexico to get the seed because they won't be in the Confed Cup, where they would be guaranteed to play 2 top 10 teams. It'll be the US that has that golden opportunity. The US also needs to keep scheduling friendlies with top 20 teams to keep their hopes alive because once Concacaf qualifying starts, they will make up no ground. Mexico already has a trip to europe scheduled next spring where they will play both Spain and Argentina, and I expect they will make one more before the hex-tourney. Either way, I just don't see Mexico or US getting by the Holland, Portugal, England, Spain quartet, two of which will be seeded along with S. Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Italy, France, Germany. Also, I hope FIFA decides to base the pots on FIFA rankings as opposed to continental grouping. The US and Mexico are very big fish in the asia/concacaf minnow pond, and whatever group they land in will instantly become a "group of death"
It would look like this: Pot 1: Italy, Brazil, Germany, Argentina, Spain, France, England, South Africa Pot 2: Portugal, Netherlands, Mexico, Croatia, USA, Czech Republic, Poland, Japan Pot 3: Romania, Paraguay, Korea Republic, Scotland, Greece, Uruguay, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria Pot 4: Australia, Tunisia, Cameroon, Colombia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Guinea, Canada Mock draw: Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Korea Republic, Colombia Group B: France, Croatia, Nigeria, Iran Group C: Argentina, Czech Republic, Romania, Guinea Group D: England, USA, Paraguay, Tunisia Group E: Spain, Portugal, Cote d'Ivoire, Canada Group F: Italy, Netherlands, Uruguay, Australia Group G: Germany, Japan, Scotland, Cameroon Group H: Brazil, Poland, Greece, Saudi Arabia
Now that looks more equitable and well rounded. Group F would be particularly fun to watch, as would group B.
I am unclear as to why that would be a problem. It would be more equitable than a group made up of Brazil, USA, Holland, and Cameroon.
Interesting, though, that Edgar's mock draw doesn't violate any of the rules that FIFA uses to set up its confederation pots draw that they usually use. Unless I missed something. Is this pure chance? Or is there some other mathematical thing going on here?
Ladies and Gents, Courtesy of Edgar, we present to you your 2010 Groups of Death Top Candidate Group F: Italy, Netherlands, Uruguay, Australia Runner Up Group E: Spain, Portugal, Cote d'Ivoire, Canada God help the Canucks.
A legitimate concern, that can be addressed by setting up the draw rules "correctly". Something like: Pot 1 - no change Pot 2 - (given 4 or more UEFA teams in pot 1) Any non-UEFA team will be placed with a UEFA top seed. If a UEFA team is drawn it will be placed in the first group with a non-UEFA top seed. If all non-UEFA top seeds have been paired, then the UEFA team will be placed with the first available UEFA top seed. Pot 3 - Any non-UEFA team will be placed in the first group without a team from its confederation. Any UEFA team will be placed in the first group with less than 2 UEFA teams. If a team can't be placed in any of the available groups it will bump a Pot 3 team from the first group in which it can fit using the above criteria. And the bumped team will be placed using these criteria. Pot 4 - Same as pot 3. Using a system such as this, the groups are as geographically balanced as they are today, and we eliminate the possibility of a group made of a top seed and three "pot 2" teams.
That's right Sagy! It could be done, but I don't think FIFA will go for it. P.S.: You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Sagy again.
I really like that method, and it would be very fair and equitable. Based on edgar's pots, and sagy's method: here is a draw: group A: Spain, Mexico, Uruguay, Iran group B: Argentina, Portugal, Nigeria, Canada group C: Italy, Croatia, Paraguay,Guinea group D: France, Netherlands, Korea, Colombia Group E: Brazil, Poland, Scotland, Cameroon Group F: Germany, Japan, Greece, Tunisia Group G: South Africa, Czech, Romania, Australia Group H: England, USA, Cote D'Ivoire, Saudi Arabia It spreads the teams out nicely and evenly by continent and by "strength" of team. Does Josep have a bigsoccer ID?