[United Pumps]

This will undoubtedly become a flame fest, as all topics do on this board, or end up being ignored.

How likely do people think it is that Tottenham, or any other club, could break into the top four in the next few years?

I can't forsee any other club than Tottenham having a chance. I'd say the second and third most likely would be Everton, who've done it before but don't really seem to have the quality to remain there and Newcastle, who have a good youngster or two, cash, some quality players and should soon have a quality manager.

Everton don't appear to have the cash necesary to break into the top four on a regular basis. Moyes has done brilliantly with what he has been given, with signings like Arteta and Johnson, and is utilising the youth that gets through to him. I think that they will maintain a position just outside of the big four in the next couple of years and will probably drift away from them in quality because of the lack of cash. They don't really have a weakness, they're just not strong enough overall.

Newcastle can't even break into the top 10 at the moment but that is probably because of the legacy of poor managers and an injury crisis. Considering Newcastle's current weaknesses (forwards/strikers and defenders) Big Sam, with his ability to make teams with very good defenses, should be perfect. If he uses Newcastle's money wisely and brings in a couple of quality defenders - preferably not Boumsong, that problem should go away pretty quickly. With Ameobi and Owen getting back to full fitness, Newcastle look to have a trio of quality strikers at their disposal. I can't really predict where they'll end up next year but if they spend wisely it should be in the UEFA Cup places. They still have a long way to go to be near the top four.

Moving on to Tottenham. As I stated earlier I believe, as well as most others, that if anybody is going to break into the big four it will be them. They have a brilliant manager, who is probably top of the list to succeed Mourinho if he got fired from Chelsea. They have cash. They have lots of young talent and a good squad. I don't think they'll sell Berbatov this summer as he doesn't want to go and they don't need the cash. Nobody is really willing to pay £30,000,000+ for him, which would probably end up being the asking price. Their strike force is immense. Berbatov and Keane make an awesome partnership and Defoe is quality as well. They have a strong midfield. I've been very impressed with Zokora, obviously Lennon is an awesome talent, Jenas can be very good and Malbranque is no slacker. They have a very good goalkeeper, despite the occasional slip up. They've been plagued by defensive problems this season but when you look at the players they have then you can see they aren't exactly weak in that department either: King, Dawson, Chimbonda and Lee. Saying that, this is probably the worst area of their squad and they've let in far too many goals this season (even counting the injury problems). They have had the fourth best attack and the fourteenth best defense.

Considering the money at their disposal and Jol knowing that they're weak at the back it looks likely that he'll act this summer and probably bring in some great young defenders (he wanted Bale but he seemed to want United).

Speaking an hour and a quarter before kick-off on the final day of the season it seems likely that they'll finish fifth. They have City to play, at home, whereas Everton, who're level on points with them, have to travel to Stamford Bridge. Upon hearing that they're fifth you'd naturally think that they aren't far from breaking into the top four but as we all know the points difference is huge and the significance is even greater. It is unusual that there is a gap of ten points anywhere in the table but because of Champions League money this is happening much more regularly.

Chelsea and United are obviously out of reach of Tottenham. Although they have a strong squad all around the step up in quality is obvious. Liverpool and Arsenal, however, are within reaching distance and Tottenham proved that last season as they were pipped to the post on the last day by Arsenal in quite freakish events. There is a growing chance, although it is still minute, that now Dein has left Arsenal will lose Wenger. This would be a phenomenal blow to them and would probably lead to them losing Henry and Cesc as well as the squandering of the squad's future. If Wenger left then I'd say it would be more than likely that Spurs would overtake them but I don't believe that he will leave. Liverpool appear to be level with Arsenal, yet this is more because of them fielding a pub team for their matches since reaching the CL final. Also, with the new owners and Champions League money Liverpool will probably end up vastly improving their squad, which would only take a quality winger and forward. I can't forsee Liverpool catching up with United and Chelsea but they'll most likely move away from Arsenal.

Considering all of this, Arsenal seems the only realistic target for Tottenham to overtake - which could make the North London feud even more interesting. With the exception of their ancient goalkeeper, Arsenal have a very young squad. Their other main sources of age are Henry, Llungberg, Gilberto and Gallas. Henry seems plagued with injuries although he is still possibly the best player in the world. Gallas has not had the effect that Wenger desired of him and will most likely leave in the summer following arguments with younger members of the Arsenal squad. Ljungberg doesn't necesarily hold down a starting place anymore although he is still an integral cog in the machine. Nearly all of the young players surrounding them are class, Cesc being amazing. Yet there are still some players who don't quite appear up to standard with the rest. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Reyes/Baptista deal this summer as both want to stay where they are now.

The two squads match up like this:
Lehmann, Eboue, Toure, Gallas (likely to leave), Clichy, Fabregas, Gilberto, Rosicky, Hleb, Van Persie and Henry.
Robinson, Chimbonda, King, Dawson, Lee, Lennon, Zokora, Jenas, Malbranque, Berbatov and Keane.
On the bench Arsenal have more depth in quality but from the starting line-up you can see that Arsenal aren't miles ahead. Take out Gallas and possibly Henry through injury and you'll have a very even match up.

Arsenal aren't known for their big spending and Wenger isn't the type. There is apparently money available but Wenger hasn't found a use for it yet. Arsenal still aren't very well off because of their stadium move and are resisting a take-over. They are unlikely to improve their squad much and age won't be kind to Henry's style of play. The most likely improvement will come in the form of the squad recieving more experience and developing further. Tottenham have been known to splash the cash and it is obviously there to be splashed. Berbatov may play even better next season, King may not get injured and Lennon may improve as well. Jol will probably get a few players in as well.

My conclusion from all of this is that over the next season or two we shall be seeing Tottenham break into the big four or at least making it competitive once again. There are two outside factors that should be taken into account, both unlikely. If Wenger leaves Arsenal then they'll most likely plummet. If Jol succeeds Mourinho at Chelsea then Tottenham will drop back into mediocracy. However, neither really looks like it shall be happening anytime soon.

Also, hello.

[leg_breaker]

No chance, teams just can't compete with the power of the Champions League, both in attracting players and paying them. This season the fifth place team was closer to tenth than fourth. The gap is getting bigger.

[United Pumps]

This will undoubtedly become a flame fest, as all topics do on this board, or end up being ignored.

v_v

[michael_91]

where did you hear the rumor that Jol was going to succeed Mourinho. I never thought Jol could do much except splash the cash, correct me if i am wrong.

[United Pumps]

Originally Posted by michael_91

where did you hear the rumor that Jol was going to succeed Mourinho. I never thought Jol could do much except splash the cash, correct me if i am wrong.

Guardian during the New Year period. The Sun/other ************ tabloids everytime Tottenham do well in a match.

[Ian Daglers]

Originally Posted by United Pumps

Guardian during the New Year period. The Sun/other ************ tabloids everytime Tottenham do well in a match.

But all the papers are constantly speculating about Mourinho's replacement, and I think you hear a lot of other names more often: Guus Hiddink, Frank Rijkaard, Marcelo Lippi, even Mark Hughes ( ). Is there something that makes the Jol story seem especially credible to you?

I realize this isn't what the thread is about, I'll try posting something on topic later.

[United Pumps]

Originally Posted by Ian Daglers

But all the papers are constantly speculating about Mourinho's replacement, and I think you hear a lot of other names more often: Guus Hiddink, Frank Rijkaard, Marcelo Lippi, even Mark Hughes ( ). Is there something that makes the Jol story seem especially credible to you?

I realize this isn't what the thread is about, I'll try posting something on topic later.

I can't see Hiddink becoming manager of Russia and Chelsea as if he did crap at one and got fired he'd still be Roman's bitch in the other. I've never seen Rijkaard speculation but that does seem pretty likely to me. Lippi - maybe. Mark Hughes, I can't see it happening. I think after Arnesen moved from Spurs the connection with Jol was strengthened in my mind.

[j.fisher]

It's easy to get into the top 4 of the Premiership... $$$.

[United Pumps]

The problem with that is all of the big four have loads of cash as well.

[act smiley]

I think one of the sides with the best potential is Newcastle if they get Big Sam. Despite Shepherd, they do have a big fanbase and can afford to pay reasonably, they have a good midfield and strikeforce and if anyone can get a defense playing well, its Allardyce. I think that next season they'll be back into the UEFA Cup, the season after, maybe they'll stand a chance of getting 4th, but its unlikely.
I think O'Neill is good enough to get Villa into the UEFA Cup, but I don't know about breaking the big 4 - he'd be given money, but lets face it the big 4 have even more.
Tottenham though, I doubt it. They're seriously overrated. Their defense is as leaky as Newcastle's, they have some talent but generally, I don't think they're much better than average at the moment and I don't see them being able to go much further than they are at the minute, perennial UEFA Cup entrants. Everton, even less likely. They had one good season, I don't think the depth, the talent or the cash is there to really do it again.

This is why the premiership is rubbish.