[Douai]

Who is your choice for the second tour of the presidential election?

[ilv2]

I weep for france.

damn the vote utile.

[Nanbawan]

Originally Posted by ilv2

damn the vote utile.

What could we do ?

Anyway, I was already depressed the day they chose Ségo at PS...

Damn de Villepin, why did you have to screw it like that with your CPE !

Not that I would have voted for him but a DSK v Villepin would have been much more relaxing...

[Pierre-Henri]

Personally, I'd vote for Najat Belkacem (PS) without hesitation :



She makes me regret I'm not a leftist anymore. Sigh.

[ilv2]

wow!

hmm, mais faut dire que c'est peut-etre du maquillage...
looks like she's one smart cookie though, Sciences-po!

Originally Posted by Nanbawan

What could we do ?

Anyway, I was already depressed the day they chose Ségo at PS...

Damn de Villepin, why did you have to screw it like that with your CPE !

Not that I would have voted for him but a DSK v Villepin would have been much more relaxing...

you're condemned to have a choice (Bayrou)! I think Sarko would have found one way or another to muscle his way into the candidate spot, clearstream whatnot. but ugh the call for a vote utile worked like clockwork. 1% les verts! (although the score could be down to a crappy campaign)

"Une majorité de bayrouistes voteraient, au second tour, pour Nicolas Sarkozy
83 % des électeurs de Jean-Marie Le Pen disent vouloir donner leur voix à Nicolas Sarkozy contre 17 % à Ségolène Royal. " what?!
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,...-900774,0.html

[Pierre-Henri]

Vote utile ? You're joking. Even if you add the scores of all the different parties, the left took one of its worst beating in its whole history. You want to know why ? Then re-read all the things I've posted here on this topic.

Rule n° 1 : Pierre-Henri speaks the truth.
Rule n° 2 : Pierre-Henri is a visionary.
Rule n° 3 : I will always listen to Pierre-Henri.
Rule n° 4 : I will never ignore Pierre-Henri's posts and will always read them with the most carefull attentiveness.
Rule n° 5 : Pierre-Henri is an inspiration for us all.
Rule n° 5 : At every second of my life, I will cherish the day when Pierre-Henri decided to be a Bigsoccer regular.

[Nanbawan]

And yet, who was in charge those past five years, having a healthy majority in the Parliament as well ? Cunning political marketing also makes wonders...

[Pierre-Henri]

I don't think it's a political problem. It's not right vs left. In my opinion, the debate is more : stagnation vs mobility ; fossilization vs expansion.

The French have the feeling that their country is frozen, fossilized, unable to move forward. Once you consider this, you understand that the old right (Chirac-Villepin) and the PS are in the same boat : good ol' antiquated France. ENA. Administrative careers. Bureaucracy. Political traditions. More bureaucracy. Same old speeches about le-rôle-de-la-France-dans-le-monde. Same old empty sentences. And a little more of bureaucracy over the top.

Chirac, Raffarin, Villepin, Hollande, Royal... they all play the same tune. They're idealists, they talk about the modèle social, give big speeches about principles, but they are unable to see that this modèle social, in truth, is crumbling under its own weight. All those nice principles are nothing but theater. We don't have a modèle social, we have an insane and fossilized bureaucracy that fancies itself as the best-system-in-the-world (relax : I won't give the same examples once again).

Sarkozy played this card very well. He is not an énarque and doesn't speak like one. His (untold) message is rather simple : "I have no principles". His opponents think this is a weakness. In fact, given the state of the country, I'm certain many French think it's his best asset.

In other words : the French are tired of philosophers, they want an efficient manager.

The left, especially Royal, doesn't understand that. In all their speeches, they're making philosophy. And, even worse, Royal makes an awfull philosopher. Her tag lines sound like wisdom from chinese cookies : Désirs d'avenir, cahiers d'espérance, démocratie participative, je-suis-d'accord-avec-les-Français... All of this mushy nosense stands not a single second against the realities French citizens are living everyday.

And, if you read the left-wing blogs on the net, you'll notice that the leftist militants have nothing else to say that : "Sarkozy is fascist, Sarkozy is Hitler, Sarkozy is evil, Sarkozy is satanic, bla, bla, bla.". It's their only mantra. They almost never speak about Royal and her projects. This gives an impression of total emptiness when it comes to her. Even her doesn't speak about her project, but spends all her time bashing Sarkozy.

[Please note I say all of this from a strictly machiavellian point of view. That doesn't mean Sarkozy will be able to fulfill his promises. He almost certainly won't. But, from this point of view, he simply outclasses the PS.]

[ilv2]

Originally Posted by Pierre-Henri

Vote utile ? You're joking. Even if you add the scores of all the different parties, the left took one of its worst beating in its whole history. You want to know why ? Then re-read all the things I've posted here on this topic.

Rule n° 1 : Pierre-Henri speaks the truth.
Rule n° 2 : Pierre-Henri is a visionary.
Rule n° 3 : I will always listen to Pierre-Henri.
Rule n° 4 : I will never ignore Pierre-Henri's posts and will always read them with the most carefull attentiveness.
Rule n° 5 : Pierre-Henri is an inspiration for us all.
Rule n° 5 : At every second of my life, I will cherish the day when Pierre-Henri decided to be a Bigsoccer regular.

not quite sure i understand your post. From my perspective, the left avoided an even bigger beating by calling for the vote utile - with such a useless candidate and stuttering campaign, what else could they do but evoke the principle of keeping the left in power and remind all the nice little ecolos and gauchistes about the systemic dangers of both an ambitious guy like Sarko or even a third party into the mix.

[Pierre-Henri]

In 2002, the whole left (including the various communists) did 43 %. This year, they did 36 %. So, the "vote utile" allowed Royal to be present at the second round, but almost without any reserve. In other words, she wasted all her ammunition to reach the second round.

The left lost 7% in 5 years, with a very high participation*. It is a major beating. The left can do nothing now but rely on Bayrou voters, and I doubt the centrists will accept an alliance with trotskyists. The left will have to drag the PCF (1.9%) and the Greens (1.5%) like dead weight. They'll also have to deal with LCR wacko revolutionaries (4%).... while Sarkozy can set his own terms. The UMP threatened the UDF ("submit yourself or disappear") because they have the power to do so.

Of course, you can always say "this could have been worse". Schivardi did 0.4 % after all. However, given the Parti Socialist recent history, since 1981, ils se sont pris une sacrée tôle.


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* It can mean the neo-voters are supporting Sarkozy or that the PS lost its traditional voters base and required new ones. Either way, it's good news for the right.