[Wizardscharter]

I'm of the "draw" boat as those dissipated in a large way about this time last season. Give me NE, MET, CLB, San Ho, and KC to win at best odds.

NE because they just can't be that bad 3 home games in a row and LA is overrated. NE is on the upside of a Joe-Max learning curve that may have dividends Sat. Ralston could not be more overdue for scoresheet ink. Jones normally rips NE, but how effective will he be after the travel? Under is a good bet here. Draw with good odds isn't out of the question either.

MET because Mathis is getting healthier and every dad under Bob will be an improvement of sorts. Oh yeah, and dc sucks. Quick question: Who do you want coaching your XI if it's your money, Bradley or Hudson? I thought so. Be careful on this one as it is a rivalry with the added touch of many former players on both teams on the strange side of it. If you can find a prop bet that pays anything above 1:5 for Hudson whining about the officials in the post-game press conference, I'd take that one also. I'm only half kidding and it is one thing that will work against dc in the long run. Refs are human and they do have 'net access. They are reading Hudson's quotes. I doubt it will effect major calls like penalties, but it may sway the odd call around the box the very-well could lead to a missed dc chance or a Mathis curler, who knows? Half a goal is almost a full standard deviation for betting purposes.

Quick math for dummies: Lines are set initially to get 50% of the money on each side of a game among other things. Books look at all possible results based on info they have. A full bell curve of possible results is roughly -3 standard deviations to +3 on the other side. The middle two (-1 to +1) occupy at least 60% of the possible results of any MLS game. Simplisticly, if you accept that refs have the ability to move a game one direction a half a goal, that becomes a large percentage of the probable results that can occur. If you say it's even as large as 25%, then you have an annomale that may be worth throwing some money at all things being equal. Said another way if the refs give .5 goals due to attitude or bias, that's worth money to you over the long run. It does not mean that dc will not win 4-1 anyway, however. Again, the idea of sports betting (ponies or teams) is to find situtaions in your favor and exploit them. Over time you will come out ahead. The short-run might still be tough.

CLB because they are playing Colorado, a team devoid of a midfield presence, aproven GK, or a defender that can track Cunny. That said, Chung and Henderson are hopelesly overdue. Home teams are somehow 3-9-7!

KC's played both and San Ho is better than Chicago. Also from CHI's coach directly, "Razov isn't at game sharpness, yet." That's a midweek quote. SJ's "D" has plenty even if Razov was above game sharpness. Onstad is leading MLS in GAA at a myopic 0.486/90 min. Remember SJ plays on a "thin" field at home also.

KC will jump on an inept Dallas team that has yet to figure out the home-turf deal. 1 home goal so far. KC is a good cure for teams that can't score, and should be moreso without Burciaga, but KC will rack up at least 2 in this one. No O'Brien and Dallas' players' curt reaction to the Kovalenko penalty might bring cards out in this one. KC does not draw cards early historicly. KC can practice on turf everyday if they want or need to. I've only seen one practice on turf and KC was offensively, in a word, impressive. We'll see. KC's reserves also ripped a good PDL team midweek, running up an initial 5-1 bulge in heavy rain. Kreis is also on the "overdue" list; he does have a history of ripping KC. If nothing else, bet the mortgage on the "over".

BTW, I'm 3-12 and down $75.50 for the year. MET, CLB, and SJ are my "prime 3".

[Wizardscharter]

I put in bold the best prices:

www.intertops.com

LA 2.6 2.85 2.2 @NE
DC 3.75 3.0 1.7 @MET
Colorado 4.0 3.0 1.65 @Columbus
SJ 2.6 2.85 2.2 @CHI
KC 3.0 2.75 2.0 @DAL

www.canbet.com
@NE 2.38 3.19 2.88 LA
@Columbus 1.70 3.33 5.22 Colorado
@Metrostars 1.79 3.35 4.48 DC
@Chicago 2.52 3.19 2.70 SJ
@Dallas 2.10 3.29 3.33 KC

www.interwetten.com (these prices are a joke)
@NE 2.3 3.0 2.4 LA
@CLB 1.6 3.2 4.2 COL
@MET 1.7 3.2 3.7 DC
@CHI 2.3 3.0 2.4 San Jose
@DAL 2.0 3.0 2.9 KC

www.sportsinteraction.com
@NE 2.1 3.1 3.1 LA
@CLB 1.53 3.4 5.5 COL
@MET 1.66 3.3 4.5 DC
@CHI 2.25 3.1 2.8 San Jose
@DAL 2.1 3.1 3.1 KC

yesbet and bet365 had no MLS lines!

Alohacasino requires registration to get lines of any kind

WorldSportsExchange (www.wsex.com) is a joke of a site - don't even bother

Gamebrokers is a clearinghouse of websites that increases difficulty of use and isn't worth the time with other sites out there

[Justin O]

bet365

New England v Los Angeles 2.10 3.00 3.00
Columbus v Colorado 1.50 3.60 5.00
Metrostars v DC United 1.61 3.40 4.33
Chicago v San Jose 2.40 2.90 2.60
Dallas v Kansas City 2.00 3.20 3.00

bet365 are often late with their MLS lines.

Here are some total goal bets (O/U 2.5 goals) from fonbet, who are always late with their prices:

New England - Los Angeles 1.67 1.95
Metro Stars - D.C. United 1.60 2.05
Columbus - Colorado 1.57 2.10
Chicago - San Jose 1.63 2.00
Dallas - Kansas City 1.63 2.00

Those under prices have come down a tad. I don't really like any of these prices, but remember next season, bet unders and ties for the first 3 weeks. We'd all be seriously in the black if we'd done that this year and last (not sure about previous years). Click on the fonbet link for their asian handicaps, though as usual they don't look good. Asian handicaps can be good for lower scoring leagues like the French and Russian, but I never see good asian prices for MLS. Part of that is because fonbet are the only bookie who offer them and their price in general aren't that great. (though it's a good bookie in some other respects)

Good luck. I've had no time to do any of the necessary research of late. And I've been on a bit of a poor run lately as well, which always sours me on the whole betting thing (though only temporarily). Seems like you're overdue for a good run here wizardscharter. Maybe I'll just blindly follow your picks. It'll give me someone to root for in today's games at least!

[Wizardscharter]

Originally posted by Justin O
We'd all be seriously in the black if we'd done that this year and last (not sure about previous years). Seems like you're overdue for a good run here wizardscharter. Maybe I'll just blindly follow your picks. It'll give me someone to root for in today's games at least!

Thanks for the compliment, but I'm just a blind squirrel like everyone else. Also, the tie phenom I believe just goes back to last year. Overall in MLS it sits at abouit 26% of all games are 90 minute ties. That has styed fairly consistent season to season. For '03 with the number being much higher, winners should be forthcoming in the results.