2010 Seeding Formula: November 2006 Update

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by Edgar, Nov 28, 2006.

  1. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    The new FIFA rankings are out for November.

    Top 7 teams seeded

    (South Africa automatically seeded as hosts)

    Code:
                      Total WC   FIFA
     1 Brazil         61.3  29.3 32
     2 Italy          58.3  27.3 31
     3 Germany        57.3  30.3 27
     4 England        54.3  26.3 28
     5 France         52.3  23.3 29
     6 Argentina      51.0  21.0 30
     7 Portugal       47.3  22.3 25
    --------------------------------
     8 Spain          46.3  25.3 21
     9 Netherlands    40.7  14.7 26
    10 Sweden         38.3  19.3 19
    11 Ukraine        36.7  16.7 20
    12 Mexico         32.3  19.3 13
    13 Switzerland    31.3  15.3 16
    14 Czech Republic 29.0   6.0 23
    15 Croatia        27.0   9.0 18
    16 Ecuador        27.0  17.0 10
    17 Nigeria        26.7   2.7 24
    18 Cameroon       25.0   3.0 22
    19 USA            22.7  13.7  9
    20 Cote d'Ivoire  21.0   6.0 15
    21 Korea Republic 17.7  15.7  2
    22 Australia      17.3  11.3  6
    23 Greece         17.0   0.0 17
    24 Japan          16.3  13.3  3
    25 Romania        14.0   0.0 14
    26 Uruguay        13.7   2.7 11
    27 Iran           12.3   5.3  7
    28 Egypt          12.0   0.0 12
    29 Colombia        8.0   0.0  8
    30 Uzbekistan      5.0   0.0  5
    31 Cuba            4.0   0.0  4
    32 South Africa    4.0   3.0  1
    Egypt/Romania/Colombia/Uzbekistan/Cuba replaced Ghana/Turkey/Paraguay/Qatar/Honduras.

    Portugal gets a seed at the expense of Spain.

    Much of the following was originally written by eldiablito and scaryice, so credit to them. Also thanks to eldiablito for doing this last time for many months and scaryice for doing this in the last months.

    FAQ

    Why is this list different than FIFA's Coca-Cola rankings?

    Because Fifa's Coca-Cola rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula.

    What is the seeding formula used for?

    The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage.

    What is the seeding formula exactly?

    The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 2 world cups and the FIFA rankings.

    Part A: World Cup performance = (2002*1+2006*2)/3
    Part B: FIFA Ranking = (12/2007 rank+12/2008 rank+11/2009 rank)/3
    Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula

    For the purposes of this showing you the current standings in this thread, the current FIFA rank will count as all three years.

    How is the world cup performance determined?

    0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year.
    The 16 teams that didn't make it out of the group stage are ranked (Points, GD, GF). The bottom 8 get 8 points each. The top 8 get 9 points each.

    All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points.

    How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded?

    Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point. If two or more teams have the same FIFA ranking, the points are not divided among them. Instead, the one shown first in the FIFA rankings gets the most points and so on.

    How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula?

    I pick the countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation. For example, the best 14 UEFA teams by FIFA ranking since 14 UEFA teams will qualify. This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind.

    14-UEFA
    4.5-CONMEBOL
    3.5-CONCACAF
    4.5-AFC
    5.0-CAF
    0.5-OFC

    The FIFA Executive Commitee meeting will take place on 5/6 December 2006 and one of the topics should be the spot allocations for South Africa 2010

    Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula?

    No, it might change slightly. For 2006 they only used the previous 2 World Cups instead of 3 like before. But they've been using the same basic formula since 1994.

    Previous Editions

    July 2006
    August 2006
    September 2006
    October 2006
     
  2. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, South Africa
    Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine
    Pot 3: Australia, Cuba, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, USA, Uzbekistan
    Pot 4: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Egypt, Nigeria, Uruguay
    Special pot: Romania

    Group A: South Africa, Greece, Korea Republic, Ecuador
    Group B: Argentina, Ukraine, Cuba, Romania
    Group C: France, Spain, Australia, Nigeria
    Group D: Germany, Netherlands, USA, Colombia
    Group E: Portugal, Czech Republic, Iran, Cameroon
    Group F: Italy, Sweden, Japan, Uruguay
    Group G: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cote d'Ivoire
    Group H: England, Switzerland, Uzbekistan, Egypt
     
  3. lordmaster redded

    Nov 27, 2006
    That sounds very nice.
    Without Holland!


     
  4. IASocFan

    IASocFan Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 13, 2000
    IOWA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    True, but FIFA has Netherlands highly ranked!! :eek:
     
  5. dawgtide

    dawgtide Member

    Jun 5, 2005
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Lol, on that. Nice groups there. It looks tough for everyone except the first and last groups. Ecuador and England look like they would be in great shape.
     
  6. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    It seems I was right :D

    Original press release -> link

    The agenda of this meeting includes:

    ...
    2010 FIFA World Cup™ in South Africa: competition dates, slots for the final competition, preliminary competitions in the confederations and preliminary draw in 2007
    ...

    Note to editors :

    A press conference will be held following the FIFA Executive Committee meeting in the FIFA Auditorium on Wednesday, 6 December 2006 at 15:00. No accreditation is required.
     
  7. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    Thanks for doing this, I forgot.
     
  8. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    Based on the new spot allocations, Romania would be replaced by Guinea.
     
  9. Timanfaya

    Timanfaya Member+

    May 31, 2005
    Southampton
    So, Pot 4 would have 5 African teams and 3 South American teams, who wouldn't be able to be drawn against South Africa, or Brazil/Argentina (respectively).

    I don't suppose they'll be able to manage to organise a reasonable method for the draw to deal with that (despite it being trivially easy); instead it will be the same old "pick a team out of the pot, and if necessary keep moving it to the next group to the right until it fits" travesty that they usually end up with.

    So, can we have England in Group B again, please?
     

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