2010 Seeding Formula: October 2006 Update

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by scaryice, Oct 18, 2006.

  1. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    The new FIFA rankings are out for October.


    Top 7 teams seeded

    (South Africa automatically seeded as hosts)

    Code:
              		Total	WC	FIFA
    1	Brazil  	61.3	29.3	32
    2	Italy   	58.3	27.3	31
    2	Germany 	57.3	30.3	27
    2	England 	54.3	26.3	28
    5	France  	53.3	23.3	30
    6	Argentina	50.0	21.0	29
    7	Spain   	48.3	25.3	23
    				
    8	Portugal	46.3	22.3	24
    9	Netherlands	40.7	14.7	26
    10	Ukraine 	36.7	16.7	20
    11	Sweden  	36.3	19.3	17
    12	Switzerland	33.3	15.3	18
    13	Mexico  	32.8	19.3	13.5
    14	Czech   	31.0	6.0	25
    15	Ecuador 	25.0	17.0	8
    16	Nigeria 	24.7	2.7	22
    17	Ghana   	24.3	13.3	11
    18	Cameroon	24.0	3.0	21
    19	USA     	22.7	13.7	9
    20	Croatia 	22.5	9.0	13.5
    21	Turkey  	22.0	10.0	12
    22	Paraguay	21.7	11.7	10
    23	Cote d'Ivoire	21.0	6.0	15
    24	Korea   	19.7	15.7	4
    25	Greece  	19.0	0.0	19
    26	Uruguay 	18.7	2.7	16
    27	Australia	18.3	11.3	7
    27	Japan   	18.3	13.3	5
    29	Iran    	11.3	5.3	6
    30	South Africa	4.0	3.0	1
    31	Qatar   	3.0	0.0	3
    32	Honduras	2.0	0.0	2
    
    Ecuador/Honduras/Qatar/Turkey replaced Colombia/Costa Rica/Denmark/Trinidad.

    No change in the gap between Spain and Portugal, although France and Argentina both lost a little bit of ground. Mexico drops a bit, while AFC now has a fifth team instead of a fourth CONCACAF team.


    Much of the following was originally written by eldiablito, so credit to him. Also thanks to him for doing this last time for many months. Apparently he hasn't been online in a month, so I've decided to do it tonight. Plus, I'm up really late when the rankings come out (3 AM central time).

    FAQ

    Why is this list different than FIFA's Coca-Cola rankings?

    Because Fifa's Coca-Cola rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula.

    What is the seeding formula used for?

    The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage.

    What is the seeding formula exactly?

    The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 2 world cups and the FIFA rankings.

    Part A: World Cup performance = (2002*1+2006*2)/3
    Part B: FIFA Ranking = (12/2007 rank+12/2008 rank+11/2009 rank)/3
    Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula

    For the purposes of this showing you the current standings in this thread, the current FIFA rank will count as all three years.

    How is the world cup performance determined?

    0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year.
    8 points are awarded for the bottom 8 teams in the group stage.
    9 points are awarded for the top 8 teams in the group stage who didn't advance.

    All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points.

    How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded?

    Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point.

    How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula?

    I pick the countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation. For example, the best 14 UEFA teams by FIFA ranking since 14 UEFA teams will qualify. This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind.

    14-UEFA
    4.5-CONMEBOL
    3.5-CONCACAF
    4.5-AFC
    5.0-CAF
    0.5-OFC

    Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula?

    No, it might change slightly. For 2006 they only used the previous 2 World Cups instead of 3 like before. But they've been using the same basic formula since 1994.

    Previous Editions

    July 2006
    August 2006
    September 2006
     
  2. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    One thing: Mexico is shown above Croatia in the FIFA Ranking, thus Mexico gets 14 points and Croatia 13. You applied the same rule for Paraguay and USA. Not that it would change anything in the rankings.

    Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
    Pot 2: Croatia, Czechia, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine
    Pot 3: Australia, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Qatar, USA
    Pot 4: Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay
    Special pot: Turkey

    Group A: South Africa, Ukraine, Japan, Turkey
    Group B: Germany, Croatia, Mexico, Paraguay
    Group C: England, Greece, Qatar, Uruguay
    Group D: Spain, Portugal, Honduras, Ecuador
    Group E: Brazil, Switzerland, USA, Nigeria
    Group F: Italy, Netherlands, Korea Republic, Cote d'Ivoire
    Group G: Argentina, Czechia, Iran, Cameroon
    Group H: France, Sweden, Australia, Ghana
     
  3. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    I didn't notice the USA & Paraguay tied. I'll have to change that. But each team splits the points, it doesn't matter which one is listed first.

    USA goes from 22.7 to 23.2

    Paraguay goes from 21.7 to 21.2
     
  4. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    Read the official seeding document for WC 2006 from FIFA -> pdf file

    There are 3 pairs of teams with the same rank for Dec 2003, but they get a different amount of points.

    Nation - FIFA Ranking Dec 2003 - Points

    Code:
    Portugal          17 21
    Costa Rica        17 20
    
    Paraguay          22 17
    Korea Republic    22 16
    
    Cote d'Ivoire     70  5
    Trinidad & Tobago 70  6
    The points are not split between the teams.

    Also see the discussion regarding this issue -> link

    At the time, Shackleton was right, they did list Portugal above Costa Rica and so on, but if you look now at the December 2003 rankings, they are listed in alphabetic order.
     
  5. scaryice

    scaryice Member

    Jan 25, 2001
    They must be rounding the numbers for the published rankings.
     
  6. dbzclips

    dbzclips New Member

    Sep 28, 2006
    Iraq
    Why would you want to begin seeding now??

    Qualification hasn't even begun yet.

    Any of those countries may now even qualify lol.
     
  7. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Obviously you're new to BigSoccer.

    Without rampant speculation and theoreticals things wouldn't be nearly so interesting.
     
  8. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My feeling is that scaryice is keeping it going just because he loves numbers. And for historical reasons. We've had a thread on this for the previous two World Cups. Last time around, it was much more interesting (to Yanks) because there was an outside chance that the US would get a seed... and Mexico got seeded.

    But now, with the seeding calculation and FIFA ranking calculation changes, the usual suspects will get the seeds and there's almost zero chance of that changing over the next 3 years no matter what happens in qualifying.

    And, hey, some of us are just weird.
     

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