http://www.northjersey.com/page.php...lRUV5eTY5NTk3MzYmeXJpcnk3ZjcxN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2 IVES GALARCEP projects the 2010 USMNT roster Goalkeepers (3) (Tim Howard, Quentin Westberg, Kasey Keller) Defenders (8) (Oguchi Onyewu, Carlos Bocanegra, Cory Gibbs, Chad Marshall, Frank Simek, Steve Cherundolo, Jonathan Spector, Marvelle Wynne) Midfielders (8) (Landon Donovan, Bobby Convey, Clint Dempsey, DaMarcus Beasley, Freddy Adu, Ricardo Clark, Benny Feilhaber, Michael Bradley) Forwards (4) (Eddie Johnson, Lee Nguyen, Kenny Cooper, Preston Zimmerman) ------------------ He gives his reasoning in the article, while recognizing that there's a lot of guesswork here. Anyway, his list is a reasonable jumping off point for discussion. Got anything better to do?* ---------------------- *Don't answer that one, please!
Galarcep writes good soccer stuff, but that's one impotent group of strikers US Soccer needs to have a little more faith in the domestic league and what it means, and a little more faith in itself to take small risks
When all is said and done, Galarcep will be 50% wrong. And so will everyone else at this point in time.
They're pretty close to mine, but its so far off. I have Casey over Zimmerman (I'm just not confident that he'll be as good as advertised, whereas Casey is doing well to perservere at Mainz), and strangely enough have the exact same midfield, except I include Lee Nguyen as a midfielder. I also have Heath Pearce over Frankie Simek and Brad Guzan over Q. I agree this is sort of like doing a Final Four bracket - even getting half of them right over the course of a 4 year period is a pretty good bet. But I think somewhere between mine and Galarcep is the current most likely outcome, which isn't to say more likely than not.
Four years is a long way off, but making projections is still an interesting exercise. And it's not purely academic, although you can argue that our BS posts are academic. First, we are very likely to have a new USMNT coach, somone who will have to get up to speed pretty quickly. We have players in Europe and in MLS, and a lot of our talent is young, emerging talent, as opposed to veteran, proven talent. No one on anyone's roster is an abolute 'lock,' but even the relative 'locks' - Howard in goal, Gooch on the back line, LD (?) in midfield, maybe - are few in number. All our rosters include a large 'hope he keeps improving' factor. Second, serious competition is not four years away. This is the tricky part, because our new coach may have to nurse along two (overlapping but distinct) rosters - one designed for WC qualifying and the other designed for the WC finals. The former would retain more of the 'old guard,' to assure our qualifying, and the latter more players from the younger, higher-potential group. For example, it's easy enough to project very young players like Altidore or Zimmerman, not quite ready today (or even for a year or two more), perhaps, but who will be potentially very useful in 2010.
Some names I might throw into the Who Knows, Maybe by 2010 List: Mapp, Rolfe, Villanueva, and DeMerit.
Fun, but silly. Who here one year ago really would've projected Nguyen, Zimmerman or Feilhaber? Someone follow IU SO well that they knew he was ahead of, say, Chad Barrett or Eddie Gaven? One year from now, perhaps Ajax or Rangers or someone signs a couple of teenage players, and the year after Hertha and Spurs. Suddenly, those guys are on the list. What if, say, Abe Thompson at FCD or Jacqua at CF absolutely explod on the scene with 20 goals each? Got to count them, right? As said, always an interesting thing to count up potential talent, but it's little better than reading tea leaves.
Right. I keep thinking someone should start a serious thread on the issue of our young players going to Europe. I don't think I'm the ideal thread-starter, but maybe I should anyway. Here's the rough idea, though. Let's say that at any given time we have 1,000 18-year-olds who are pro prospects; 100 of them will become pros; 10 will become USMNT candidates; and 1 will become a solid USMNT player - not just a 1- or 2-cap wonder. How does all this sorting out take place? Well, each case is different, but there are some clear indicators. And a very clear indicator, greatly narrowing the field of USMNT candidates, is how the worldwide soccer market values a given player. Yes, it's true that the market makes 'errors,' and that some players are undervalued and some are overvalued, but the market provides over time a very reliable piece of information. Most of our top young players want to go to Europe. Part of the reason is their ambition to develop as a player, to play better competition, etc., but a strong motivating factor is the relatively higher pay scale. [Maybe someone can post the MLS pay scale, which caused a minor furor when it was released earlier this year.] Anyway, if Ajax or Rangers, Herta or Spurs (to use your examples) grabs one of our young guys and signs him to a big contact, I will add that young man to my candidates' list immediately and automatically - even if I have never heard his name before.* Can everyone/anyone out there follow this line of thought? Put very simply, when our new USMNT coach reads in his morning paper that one of our young players just signed a big Euro contract, he should make a note of that player's name, invite him into camp and give him a real good look. Let the market work its magic. Simple as that ... ----------------------- *How many times has someone on BS derrided me for 'not knowing the US player pool inside and out,' as if all BS posters were highly-trained, expert soccer scouts? Too many times to count, unfortunately.
How about Danny Szetela? He could very well be in the running, also I might as well mention Rossi, although he is an extreme guess at this point, but who knows? Also Brian McBride might very well be totally bionic by then, having more metal parts then flesh ones
He's not included in the projected roster, but I hope that in 4 years Mastroeni still has the mobility to compete at the World Cup level because what he offers to our midfield is something I can't see us getting from anyone else (and no, it's not red cards...smart a$$ ).
I agree with what a previous poster said about players coming out of seemingly nowhere. I think if one is to look at our roster 4 years early, you have to include two or three spots for the Clint Dempseys of the cycle. There are obviously gonna be locks, Donovan (whether you like it or hate it), Beasley, Howard, Gooch, etc. barring serious injuries. But four years ago, who though Spectre would be a serious contender for a defensive slot? It's a very inexact science. But still, what better is there to do on big soccer right now? I think the roster will look something like this: GK: Howard, Veteran (Hahnemann, Keller, or Friedle), Youngster (BS wisdom says Guzan, but I'm not sold on him) Def: Gooch, Gibbs(if healthy), Dolo, Spectre, Boca, 3 or 4 players with little USMNT experience now (Wynne, Marshall, Simek, unknowns?) Mid: Donovan, Beasley, Dempsey, Adu, One of O'Brien or Mastroeni, Convey, Nguyen, youngster not well known or tested yet (Gaven, Feilhaber, Bradley, Szetela, etc.) For: Johnson, and the rest is wide open, Rolfe? Casey? Esky? Zimmerman? Cooper? WIDE OPEN... but I'd guess Casey, Rolfe, and Esky Obviously I don't have a great knowledge of everyone on the my roster. I've included players I haven't seen like Nguyen just because and American going through the PSV system and probably playing 1st team ball by then is just too much to pass up. I like Bradley in the little he played in the send-offs, but alot of it is speculation and learned from reading articles and reasonable posts here on BigSoccer.(if there is such a thing!)
I just watched Mapp this weekend. Clearly on of the most gifted players on the pitch, but defensive liability and looked like he needed a beer while walking about when the ball wasn't at his feet. I truly hope he is in contention, but I simply don't see it happening if he stays in Chicago and is coached by the current U-12 genius in place there now. Mapp needs some motivation or a swift kick in the arse, which I have yet to decide.
Zizou won the Golden Ball for doing roughly that (albeit against a slightly better competition). Both Jaqua and Barrett expressed their desire to get out of MLS ASAP and Jaqua should be a free agent after this season.
You can't say that 4 years early. As SFS noted, these things are speculative, and all four would have to step up their games over the coming years to get selected. (EJ's the only one who'd have any chance given his current level).
Unless our DMFs take it up a notch or two quickly, Mastroeni leaps to mind as the poster boy for the type of guy we need to get through qualifying but might not make the WC squad two years after that.
One of the best columnist generated lists I've seen put out in terms of player talent. GKs: Howard as a probable #1 looks reasonable. Keller as a Tony Meola 3rd keeper is fine. Never seen Westberg play. Maybe Guzan or Cannon. Defenders: talented group but no true left back listed. Simek plays D-2 soccer after having gone through Arsenal's youth system. I don't see him making it. Sturgis will definately be pushing hard for a spot at left back. I can see Burciaga making a move also. Wynne's lack of technical ability is palpable. Right now I'd rate the two-footed Tim Ward a better prospect. I could also see a Demeritt or Ugo catching up with Bocanegra. Midfielders: good group. move donovan to forward where he belongs. replace Convey with Mapp. Move Gaven into LD's spot. Klejstan will push for a spot. Forwards: hardest group to project as there just aren't many talented established forwards. LD should get a sport here. Buddle should be in. Chris Rolfe. the fourth spot goes to wild card like Altidore or Davies.
I was saying that projecting lineups 4 years away is nothing but vacuous guesses, and that average MLS players (i.e., that we don't consider USMNT material) may force their way onto the scene. Another example I thought of last night: in 2002 everyone was projecting Ryan Suarez was in our starting lineup in 2006. He's now retired. What's your point in response to what I said, other than this tidbit which tends to support your hypothesis that US players should go abroad?
I thought so, too. At least the list provides a decent place to begin the conversation. And it can be a fun conversation, if we don't all take ourselves too seriously. I'll intersperse my comments. I don't really want Keller hanging around, and I hope he sees it the same way himself. It Howard gets hurt (or otherwise can't deliver), I'll look for one of the younger guys to step up. I haven't seen Westberg play, either - there are any number of players I haven't seen play. And I/we may not have much opportunity to watch the Euro-based players play for their respective clubs. That is the sort of issue - no true left back - that needs to addressed over the next four years, not at the 'last minute.' And we could use two or three left backs, not just one. MF should be the strength of our team, but we have to do a much better job of preparation this time, in terms of integrating the players and their styles of play. Another key question that has to be addressed is LD's role, within what formation and system, etc. Moving anyone else? If we are going to push LD, Nguyen, or anyone else forward, let's give them some advanced notice, ok? Yes, those wild cards. Have you rated Zimmerman yet? He's with Feilhaber in Hamburg. Giving up on EJ? Lastly, have you weighed in on the coaching issue?
Can too! Did I say that? I think I specifically mentioned USSoccer there, and the connection is that Galarcep is being like USSoccer/Arena over the past few years...not giving enough credit to MLS players...this talk about how well one does in MLS is relevant to getting selected...that was lip service, but I don't think it should be lip service.