Depending on the WC2010 spot allocation, UEFA might choose one of the following qualifying systems: - WC spots - No. of groups - No. of best 2nd placed teams advancing without play-off - Teams in the playoff Code: 13 8 2 6 13.5 9 0 9+1 14 9 1 8 7 7 0 14.5 9 2 7+1 15 10 0 0 4 possibilities: 7, 8, 9 or 10 groups. The teams are ranked using results from the qualifying campaigns for WC2006 and EURO2008. Points gathered in those campaigns are added and divided by the total number of games played (play-offs excluded). Three things to remember: 1. Switzerland and Austria cannot improve their coefficient, as they won't be in the qualifiers. 2. Germany has everything to play for, as it didn't take part in the 2006 WCQ, so its coefficient will be based only on EURO 2008 qualifying campaign. (In order to give Germany some sort of coefficient, I used the results from the EURO 2004 qualifying campaign). 3. If the WC2006 winner is from Europe, it will be the top seed for WC2010 qualifying draw. Using only the results from the WC2006 qualifiers, these would be the pots. 7 groups Pot 1: Netherlands, Portugal, England, Sweden, Poland, Croatia, Italy Pot 2: Czechia, Germany, Serbia and Montenegro, Ukraine, Romania, Spain, France Pot 3: Slovakia, Turkey, Russia, Denmark, Switzerland, Israel, Norway Pot 4: Greece, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary Pot 5: Finland, Scotland, Latvia, Belgium, Slovenia, Albania, Lithuania Pot 6: Belarus, Northern Ireland, Georgia, Wales, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Armenia Pot 7: Moldova, Andorra, Cyprus, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Malta, Faroe Islands Pot 8: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, San Marino 8 groups Pot 1: Netherlands, Portugal, England, Sweden, Poland, Croatia, Italy, Czechia Pot 2: Germany, Serbia and Montenegro, Ukraine, Romania, Spain, France, Slovakia, Turkey Pot 3: Russia, Denmark, Switzerland, Israel, Norway, Greece, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina Pot 4: Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Finland, Scotland, Latvia, Belgium Pot 5: Slovenia, Albania, Lithuania, Belarus, Northern Ireland, Georgia, Wales, F.Y.R. Macedonia Pot 6: Liechtenstein, Armenia, Moldova, Andorra, Cyprus, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Malta Pot 7: Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, San Marino 9 groups Pot 1: Netherlands, Portugal, England, Sweden, Poland, Croatia, Italy, Czechia, Germany Pot 2: Serbia and Montenegro, Ukraine, Romania, Spain, France, Slovakia, Turkey, Russia, Denmark Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Norway, Greece, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia Pot 4: Hungary, Finland, Scotland, Latvia, Belgium, Slovenia, Albania, Lithuania, Belarus Pot 5: Northern Ireland, Georgia, Wales, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Moldova, Andorra, Cyprus Pot 6: Iceland, Azerbaijan, Malta, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, San Marino 10 groups: Pot 1: Netherlands, Portugal, England, Sweden, Poland, Croatia, Italy, Czechia, Germany, Serbia and Montenegro Pot 2: Ukraine, Romania, Spain, France, Slovakia, Turkey, Russia, Denmark, Switzerland, Israel Pot 3: Norway, Greece, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Finland, Scotland Pot 4: Latvia, Belgium, Slovenia, Albania, Lithuania, Belarus, Northern Ireland, Georgia, Wales, F.Y.R. Macedonia Pot 5: Liechtenstein, Armenia, Moldova, Andorra, Cyprus, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Malta, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan Pot 6: Luxembourg, San Marino
Update after September 6th: Code: 1 Italy (TH) 2.000 2 Germany 3.000 3 Netherlands 2.714 4 England 2.583 5 Sweden 2.500 6 Portugal 2.385 7 Czechia 2.357 8 Croatia 2.273 9 France 2.167 10 Serbia 2.167 11 Ukraine 2.154 12 Poland 2.083 13 Romania 2.071 14 Turkey 2.000 15 Norway 2.000 16 Israel 2.000 17 Denmark 1.923 18 Spain 1.917 19 Slovakia 1.857 20 Greece 1.846 21 Russia 1.846 22 Switzerland 1.800 23 Scotland 1.583 24 Bulgaria 1.583 25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.583 26 Ireland 1.545 27 Austria 1.500 28 Finland 1.429 29 Hungary 1.417 30 Belgium 1.333 31 Estonia 1.214 32 Latvia 1.154 33 Slovenia 1.091 34 Northern Ireland 1.000 35 Albania 1.000 36 Lithuania 0.917 37 Belarus 0.917 38 Georgia 0.867 39 Macedonia 0.857 40 Wales 0.727 41 Iceland 0.583 42 Liechtenstein 0.571 43 Armenia 0.538 44 Moldova 0.417 45 Cyprus 0.364 46 Andorra 0.357 47 Azerbaijan 0.333 48 Malta 0.250 49 Kazakhstan 0.214 50 Faroe Islands 0.083 51 Luxembourg 0.000 52 San Marino 0.000 7 groups Pot 1: Italy, Germany, Netherlands, England, Sweden, Portugal, Czechia Pot 2: Croatia, France, Serbia, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Turkey Pot 3: Norway, Israel, Denmark, Spain, Slovakia, Greece, Russia Pot 4: Switzerland, Scotland, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ireland, Austria, Finland Pot 5: Hungary, Belgium, Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Albania Pot 6: Lithuania, Belarus, Georgia, Macedonia, Wales, Iceland, Liechtenstein Pot 7: Armenia, Moldova, Cyprus, Andorra, Azerbaijan, Malta, Kazakhstan Pot 8: Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, San Marino 8 groups Pot 1: Italy, Germany, Netherlands, England, Sweden, Portugal, Czechia, Croatia Pot 2: France, Serbia, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Norway, Israel Pot 3: Denmark, Spain, Slovakia, Greece, Russia, Switzerland, Scotland, Bulgaria Pot 4: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ireland, Austria, Finland, Hungary, Belgium, Estonia, Latvia Pot 5: Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Albania, Lithuania, Belarus, Georgia, Macedonia, Wales Pot 6: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Moldova, Cyprus, Andorra, Azerbaijan, Malta Pot 7: Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, San Marino 9 groups Pot 1: Italy, Germany, Netherlands, England, Sweden, Portugal, Czechia, Croatia, France Pot 2: Serbia, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Norway, Israel, Denmark, Spain Pot 3: Slovakia, Greece, Russia, Switzerland, Scotland, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ireland, Austria Pot 4: Finland, Hungary, Belgium, Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Albania, Lithuania Pot 5: Belarus, Georgia, Macedonia, Wales, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Moldova, Cyprus Pot 6: Andorra, Azerbaijan, Malta, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, San Marino 10 groups Pot 1: Italy, Germany, Netherlands, England, Sweden, Portugal, Czechia, Croatia, France, Serbia Pot 2: Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Norway, Israel, Denmark, Spain, Slovakia, Greece Pot 3: Russia, Switzerland, Scotland, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ireland, Austria, Finland, Hungary, Belgium Pot 4: Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Albania, Lithuania, Belarus, Georgia, Macedonia, Wales Pot 5: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Moldova, Cyprus, Andorra, Azerbaijan, Malta, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands Pot 6: Luxembourg, San Marino
Is there any known/estimated date when FIFA will decide how many spots each confederation gets for 2010?
Reviewing Edgar's initial post, I'd add the following: Depending on the WC2010 spot allocation, UEFA might choose one of the following qualifying systems: - WC spots - No. of groups - No. of best 2nd placed teams advancing without play-off - Teams in the playoff Code: 13 8 2 6 13.5 9 9+1 14 9 1 8 7 7 0 14.5 9 2 7+1 15 10 0 [b]10[/b] 4 possibilities: 7, 8, 9 or 10 groups. 7 and 9 groups give the fewest amount of byes and match days - which I assume are good things. If Montenegro participates, it could easily join the lowest pot without effecting anything other than taking byes away from teams in their group.
WC 2010 preliminaries seeding (as of October 11th): Code: 1 Italy (TH) 2.143 2 Germany 3.000 3 Netherlands 2.625 4 Sweden 2.571 5 Croatia 2.385 6 Czechia 2.313 7 Serbia 2.286 8 England 2.286 9 Portugal 2.267 10 Poland 2.214 11 Turkey 2.133 12 Romania 2.133 13 France 2.071 14 Ukraine 2.067 15 Greece 2.000 16 Denmark 1.933 17 Israel 1.923 18 Russia 1.867 19 Norway 1.846 20 Slovakia 1.813 21 Switzerland 1.800 22 Spain 1.769 23 Bulgaria 1.643 24 Scotland 1.571 25 Finland 1.500 26 Austria 1.500 27 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.429 28 Ireland 1.385 29 Belgium 1.357 30 Hungary 1.214 31 Latvia 1.200 32 Slovenia 1.154 33 Northern Ireland 1.143 34 Estonia 1.133 35 Lithuania 1.077 36 Macedonia 1.000 37 Belarus 1.000 38 Albania 0.933 39 Wales 0.846 40 Georgia 0.813 41 Cyprus 0.538 42 Armenia 0.533 43 Liechtenstein 0.533 44 Iceland 0.500 45 Malta 0.462 46 Moldova 0.429 47 Andorra 0.313 48 Azerbaijan 0.286 49 Kazakhstan 0.188 50 Faroe Islands 0.071 51 Luxembourg 0.000 52 San Marino 0.000 7 groups Pot 1: Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Croatia, Czechia, Serbia Pot 2: England, Portugal, Poland, Turkey, Romania, France, Ukraine Pot 3: Greece, Denmark, Israel, Russia, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland Pot 4: Spain, Bulgaria, Scotland, Finland, Austria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ireland Pot 5: Belgium, Hungary, Latvia, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Estonia, Lithuania Pot 6: Macedonia, Belarus, Albania, Wales, Georgia, Cyprus, Armenia Pot 7: Liechtenstein, Iceland, Malta, Moldova, Andorra, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan Pot 8: Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, San Marino 8 groups Pot 1: Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Croatia, Czechia, Serbia, England Pot 2: Portugal, Poland, Turkey, Romania, France, Ukraine, Greece, Denmark Pot 3: Israel, Russia, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, Spain, Bulgaria, Scotland Pot 4: Finland, Austria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ireland, Belgium, Hungary, Latvia, Slovenia Pot 5: Northern Ireland, Estonia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Belarus, Albania, Wales, Georgia Pot 6: Cyprus, Armenia, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Malta, Moldova, Andorra, Azerbaijan Pot 7: Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, San Marino 9 groups Pot 1: Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Croatia, Czechia, Serbia, England, Portugal Pot 2: Poland, Turkey, Romania, France, Ukraine, Greece, Denmark, Israel, Russia Pot 3: Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, Spain, Bulgaria, Scotland, Finland, Austria, Bosnia-Herzegovina Pot 4: Ireland, Belgium, Hungary, Latvia, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Estonia, Lithuania, Macedonia Pot 5: Belarus, Albania, Wales, Georgia, Cyprus, Armenia, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Malta Pot 6: Moldova, Andorra, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, San Marino 10 groups Pot 1: Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Croatia, Czechia, Serbia, England, Portugal, Poland Pot 2: Turkey, Romania, France, Ukraine, Greece, Denmark, Israel, Russia, Norway, Slovakia Pot 3: Switzerland, Spain, Bulgaria, Scotland, Finland, Austria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ireland, Belgium, Hungary Pot 4: Latvia, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Estonia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Belarus, Albania, Wales, Georgia Pot 5: Cyprus, Armenia, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Malta, Moldova, Andorra, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands Pot 6: Luxembourg, San Marino Spain's poor run on form has dropped them to the 4th pot (for 7 groups) or 3rd pot.
A few things: 1. Montenegro will be a seperate country in qualifying for 2010 and probably will be in the bottom pot. 2. What are the tiebreakers? Isn't it the most recent competition PPG? 3. I didn't know Italy got seeded first automatically. I knew Greece did for Euros, but you would think it would be different. 4. I did this on my own and I got the same figures so that's good.
It looks like the team with the lower PPG in the earlier competition is ranked ahead (makes a difference only if one of the tied teams didn't play in one of the qualifiers). UEFA seedings for Euro 2008 had 9 pairs of teams with the same PPG. In eight cases UEFA listed the team with the lower PPG in EQ 2004 ahead, the 9th pair was tied and had a total of zero points in both qualifiers. Code: Overall PPG Team 1 EQ 04 PPG Team 2 EQ 04 PPG 2.500 Portugal England 2.500 2.222 Croatia 2.000 Italy 2.125 2.056 Poland 1.625 Spain 2.125 1.850 Russia 1.750 Denmark 1.875 1.778 Norway 1.750 Bulgaria 2.125 1.556 Ireland 1.375 Belgium 2.000 1.500 Israel 1.125 Scotland 1.750 0.667 Northern Ireland 0.375 Cyprus 1.000 0.000 Luxembourg 0.000 San Marino 0.000 Make that 3 of us
I know. After Montenegro gained independence, I listed only Serbia. Montenegro has already gained provisional UEFA membership and in 2008 it will probable become part of FIFA. Also, Gibraltar is trying to get UEFA and FIFA membership. When one or both of them will become FIFA members, I will add them to the list. From uefa.com: (EURO 2008 regulations, but I'm pretty sure the same rules will apply for WC 2010 qualifiers) If two or more associations have the same coefficient, the following criteria will be applied: a) coefficient from the matches played in its most recent qualifying competition, b) average goal difference, c) average number of goals scored, d) average number of away goals scored, e) drawing of lots. I don't have any official info on this, it's just my assumption. Nice to know I'm not the only one interested in this
Greece was the European champion, and this is the Euro 2008 qualifying. It makes sense for this, but the World Cup is not a UEFA competition. I think you're right though.
Assuming the same pot system is used, the following teams are up or down 2+ pots: Up 2 Serbia (3 to 1) Down 2 Greece (1 to 3) Spain (2 to 4) Iceland (5 to 7)
Random Draw Assuming same system as Euro 2008 qualifying. Personally, I think they should stick to a system without playoffs. Group 1-Sweden, Romania, Switzerland, Bulgaria, N.Ireland, Wales, Iceland, Luxembourg Group 2-Germany, Turkey, Israel, Ireland, Slovenia, Albania, Azerbaijan, San Marino Group 3-Czech, France, Russia, Scotland, Estonia, Macedonia, Kazakhstan, Faroe Is.. Group 4-Netherlands, Portugal, Norway, Austria, Latvia, Belarus, Andorra, Montenegro Group 5-Italy, Poland, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, Cyprus, Liechtenstein Group 6-Croatia, Ukraine, Slovakia, Bosnia, Belgium, Armenia, Moldova Group 7-Serbia, England, Greece, Spain, Hungary, Georgia, Malta
Some other interesting (at least for me) observations: Serbia (pot 1) is ranked 17th & 18th among UEFA teams by FIFA & ELO (both would place them in pot 3) Poland (pot 2) is ranked 24th by Elo (Pot 4) Denmark (pot 3) is ranked 7th by Elo (Pot 1) Spain (pot 4) is ranked 8th & 9th (pot 2) Estonia (pot 5) is ranked 44th by Elo (pot 7) Macedonia (pot 6) is ranked 27th by FIFA (pot 4) Teams that are in the same pot under all three systems are: Italy, Germany, Netherlands - - Ireland Northern Ireland Albania, Georgia Liechtenstein, Malta, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan Luxembourg, San Marino Interesting to note that using UEFA's formula, after the top 3 teams only 2 of the next 34 teams (all the way down to Belarus) are in the same pot using all three systems. Some of the implications are that the following group is possible (from each pot): Italy (Netherlands, Germany) England (France, Portugal) Denmark (Greece) Spain Belgium (Northern Ireland) Macedonia Iceland We could also have a group headed by Serbia, Poland (arguably the two worst UEFA teams in the last WC), Slovakia and Finland
Best Group Possible Italy France Denmark Spain Belgium Macedonia Iceland Worst Group Possible Serbia Poland Slovakia Bosnia Estonia Armenia Andorra
The only reason there is no play-offs for Euro 2008 Qualifying is becuase there are 2 countries (Austria and Switzerland) hosting it. If they had playoffs, the numbers would be odd. Sum up: WC 2010 Uefa Qualifying will have play-offs.
That's nonsence. For Euro 2000 (Belgium and Netherlands) they did have play-offs: -9 groups of 5 or 6 teams -9 groupwinners + best runner-up qualified directly -other 8 runners-up played play-offs for last 4 spots. They could have used exactly the same system for Euro 2008. So, if there will be play-offs for WC 2010 depends mainly on the numer of spots UEFA gets. If they get 14 again they could do the same system as for Euro 2008 (but they could also do another one). If they get another amount of spots there will be play-offs for sure.
WCQ 2010 seeding (November 15th): Code: 1 Italy (TH) 2.143 2 Netherlands 2.625 3 Sweden 2.571 4 Germany 2.500 5 Croatia 2.429 6 Czechia 2.313 7 Portugal 2.313 8 Serbia 2.286 9 England 2.286 10 Poland 2.267 11 Turkey 2.133 12 Romania 2.133 13 France 2.071 14 Ukraine 2.067 15 Greece 2.000 16 Russia 1.938 17 Denmark 1.933 18 Norway 1.846 19 Slovakia 1.813 20 Switzerland 1.800 21 Israel 1.786 22 Spain 1.769 23 Bulgaria 1.643 24 Finland 1.588 25 Scotland 1.571 26 Austria 1.500 27 Ireland 1.500 28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.429 29 Belgium 1.267 30 Hungary 1.214 31 Latvia 1.200 32 Slovenia 1.154 33 Northern Ireland 1.143 34 Estonia 1.133 35 Lithuania 1.077 36 Belarus 1.000 37 Macedonia 0.941 38 Albania 0.933 39 Wales 0.846 40 Georgia 0.813 41 Cyprus 0.571 42 Liechtenstein 0.533 43 Iceland 0.500 44 Armenia 0.500 45 Malta 0.462 46 Moldova 0.429 47 Andorra 0.313 48 Azerbaijan 0.286 49 Kazakhstan 0.176 50 Faroe Islands 0.071 51 Luxembourg 0.000 52 San Marino 0.000 7 groups Pot 1: Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Croatia, Czechia, Portugal Pot 2: Serbia, England, Poland, Turkey, Romania, France, Ukraine Pot 3: Greece, Russia, Denmark, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, Israel Pot 4: Spain, Bulgaria, Finland, Scotland, Austria, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina Pot 5: Belgium, Hungary, Latvia, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Estonia, Lithuania Pot 6: Belarus, Macedonia, Albania, Wales, Georgia, Cyprus, Liechtenstein Pot 7: Iceland, Armenia, Malta, Moldova, Andorra, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan Pot 8: Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, San Marino 8 groups Pot 1: Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Croatia, Czechia, Portugal, Serbia Pot 2: England, Poland, Turkey, Romania, France, Ukraine, Greece, Russia Pot 3: Denmark, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, Israel, Spain, Bulgaria, Finland Pot 4: Scotland, Austria, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belgium, Hungary, Latvia, Slovenia Pot 5: Northern Ireland, Estonia, Lithuania, Belarus, Macedonia, Albania, Wales, Georgia Pot 6: Cyprus, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Armenia, Malta, Moldova, Andorra, Azerbaijan Pot 7: Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, San Marino 9 groups Pot 1: Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Croatia, Czechia, Portugal, Serbia, England Pot 2: Poland, Turkey, Romania, France, Ukraine, Greece, Russia, Denmark, Norway Pot 3: Slovakia, Switzerland, Israel, Spain, Bulgaria, Finland, Scotland, Austria, Ireland Pot 4: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belgium, Hungary, Latvia, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Estonia, Lithuania, Belarus Pot 5: Macedonia, Albania, Wales, Georgia, Cyprus, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Armenia, Malta Pot 6: Moldova, Andorra, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, San Marino 10 groups Pot 1: Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Croatia, Czechia, Portugal, Serbia, England, Poland Pot 2: Turkey, Romania, France, Ukraine, Greece, Russia, Denmark, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland Pot 3: Israel, Spain, Bulgaria, Finland, Scotland, Austria, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belgium, Hungary Pot 4: Latvia, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Estonia, Lithuania, Belarus, Macedonia, Albania, Wales, Georgia Pot 5: Cyprus, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Armenia, Malta, Moldova, Andorra, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands Pot 6: Luxembourg, San Marino FIFA should announce in December the WC2010 allocations so we'll know what system UEFA will use.
They could not have used the same system becuase there are more teams in Euro qualifying for 2008 than there were for qualifying in 2000. It is simple mathmatics! Euro 2000 Q's = 49 teams Euro 2008 Q's = 50 teams
You're wrong and Forza AZ is right. EURO 2000: 4 groups of 6 teams and 5 groups of 5 teams = 49 teams. For EURO 2008 they could have used 5 groups of 6 teams and 4 groups of 5 teams = 50 teams.
Yes, but after Euro 2004 qualifying, UEFA announced that they would no longer have as little as 5 teams in qualifying competition. The format moving forward would be based around 6 or more teams.
Since when do you believe UEFA and FIFA officials on what they say? But besides that. You stated that they couldn't have play-offs with 2 hosts. That's not true. It would have been very easy to have a system with play-offs (same as for Euro 2000, just with an extra team in one of the groups). UEFA just chose otherwise. It wouldn't surprise me if they have smaller groups for WC 2010 if that gives an easier system for the number of available spots.