[eldiablito]

For those following all the previous seeding threads, here's the latest--no surprises.

63.67 Brazil
48.83 Spain
47.83 Germany
47.33 Mexico
46.33 Argentina
45.83 England
45.83 Italy
44.67 France
-----------------
43.00 Netherlands
41.67 USA

[Metropolitan]

How are determined those marks ?

[eldiablito]

Please read the following before posting ignorant, misinformed opinions. I realize that might be asking a bit much.

Why is this list different than FIFA's coke rankings?
Because Fifa's coke rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula.

What is the seeding formula used for?
The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage.

What is the seeding formula exactly?
The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 3 world cups and the FIFA coca-cola rankings of the last three years.

Specifically: [1(wc94) + 2(wc98) + 3(wc02)]/6 = Part A
(FIFA ranking 12/03 + FIFA ranking 12/04 + FIFA ranking 11/05)/3 = Part B
Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula

How is the world cup performance determined?
0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year.
8 points are awarded if the country finished last in their group.
9 points are awarded if the country finished 3rd in their group.
All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points.

How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded?
Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point.

Why don't you show all 32 teams seeding formula results?
Primarily, because I don't want to accidentally misinform. Only the top 8 teams receive seeds. Teams 9-16 are not placed in a second tier--so really it's irrelevent to show all teams' seedings results. However, if you ask for it, I will show it.

How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula?
First, I choose all qualified teams. Then I pick the remaining countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation as much as is possible. For example, the best 14 European teams by FIFA ranking as long as there are at least one team from each Euro qualifying group and no more than two from each qualifying group.

This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind.

Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula?
No. However, the last world cup this was the specific formula used. World cups '98 and '94 used a formula extremely similar--possibly identical, but the details of those formulas were never spelled out as specifically as the one used in '02. It is possible that FIFA could change the formula or alter it, but because the last three world cups used this formula, it is a good projection of which teams will be seeded.

[Sachin]

Originally Posted by eldiablito

It is possible that FIFA could change the formula or alter it, but because the last three world cups used this formula, it is a good projection of which teams will be seeded.

Just wanted to repeat and empahsize this point.

Sachin

[NASL Fan]

Originally Posted by eldiablito

For those following all the previous seeding threads, here's the latest--no surprises.

63.67 Brazil
48.83 Spain
47.83 Germany
47.33 Mexico
46.33 Argentina
45.83 England
45.83 Italy
44.67 France
-----------------
43.00 Netherlands
41.67 USA

In terms of world soccer politics, it's clear to me that FIFA could easily seed those teams without any problems.

Personally, however, I'd seed the Netherlands over Mexico... Mexico has never made it to the quarter finals of a World Cup hosted outside their own country. The Netherlands has had more success.

Mexico:
2002: lost to USA in round of 16
1998: lost to Germany in round of 16
1994: lost to Bulgaria in round of 16
1990: did not qualify
1986: hosted, lost in quarters to Germany
1982: did not qualify
1978: three and out.
1974: did not qualify

Whereas the Netherlands:
2002: did not qualify
1998: lost in semifinals to Brazil
1994: lost in quarters to Brazil
1990: lost in round of 16 to Germany
1986: did not qualify
1982: did not qualify
1978: lost in final to Argentina
1974: lost in final to W Germany

[Gary V]

Originally Posted by NASL Fan

Whereas the Netherlands:
2002: did not qualify

And that's what hurts them the most.

[ursula]

Mock draft
Mock draft
Mock draft

I live for the mock draft.

[Indiana Jones]

Originally Posted by eldiablito

For those following all the previous seeding threads, here's the latest--no surprises.

63.67 Brazil
48.83 Spain
47.83 Germany
47.33 Mexico
46.33 Argentina
45.83 England
45.83 Italy
44.67 France
-----------------
43.00 Netherlands
41.67 USA

THe LATEST seeding is as follows

World Cup top seeds as of 19 October*:

1 Brazil 64 points
2 Spain 49
3 Germany 48
4 Mexico 47
5= Argentina 46
5= England 46
7= France 45
7= Italy 45


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 Holland 43
10 USA 41

Reference: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/foot...ls/4356050.stm

[eldiablito]

Originally Posted by Indiana Jones

THe LATEST seeding is as follows

World Cup top seeds as of 19 October*:

1 Brazil 64 points
2 Spain 49
3 Germany 48
4 Mexico 47
5= Argentina 46
5= England 46
7= France 45
7= Italy 45


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 Holland 43
10 USA 41

Reference: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/foot...ls/4356050.stm

That list is mostly right--provided you round your figures to the nearest whole number (which is what FIFA did in 2002, btw). However, the BBC is off for Italy--that should be rounded to 46 as well. Here's Italy specifically:

Part A
wc 94: 2nd place = 31 points x 1 = 31
wc 98: 5th place = 28 points x 2 = 56
wc 02: 15th place = 18 points x 3 = 54
31+56+54=141/6=23.5
Part A = 23.5

Part B
FIFA ranking 12/03 = 10 = 23 points
FIFA ranking 12/04 = 10 = 23 points
FIFA ranking 11/05 = 12 = 21 points*

*note that this is the only part of the formula using an estimate using October's figures in lieu of next month's.

23+23+21=67/3=22.33
Part B = 22.33

23.5 + 22.33 = 45.83

One could also round this up to 46--in case the BBC would like to check my work

[Sachin]

If I understand correctly, the only potential seed not to have qualified is Spain, which in the UEFA playoff. Is this correct?

Sachin