[Sachin]

Here are some options for World Cup qualifying:

1. Hexagonal - 3 top teams qualify, 4th place team goes to playoff. Keep the preliminary and semifinal rounds the same.

2. Octagonal - 8 teams, top 3 qualify directly, 4th goes to playoff. I guess the Semifinal round would have to expanded to 4 groups, which would mean the preliminary rounds will have be reconfigured as well.

3. Two Pentagonals. Two groups of five. The group winners qualify directly. The two second place teams face off in a home and home with the winner taking the third direct spot and the loser going to a playoff. Not sure how the Semifinal and preliminary rounds would work.

My guess is the Hexagonal or Pentagonal systems are the most likely because the Octagonal would mean far too many games (14) over a one-year span.

Sachin

[obie]

I was just thinking about this. CONCACAF has 40 countries, so with only 3.5 spots a multi-phase process is (of course) necessary. About 28 of these are island nations; only two of those 28 are even remotely good. Hence, most of the parign down early should come there.

My idea:

1. Figure out some way to get that group of 28 Caribbean countries down to four easily. (likely advancers: Jamaica, T&T, two among Cuba, Haiti and Barbados.)

2. Canada and the non-automatic Central American countries (there's eight or nine of them total) play in two groups to decide four more spots. (likely: Honduras, Guatemala, El Sal, and Canada.)

3. The next-highest Caribbean country (the loser among that Cuba / Haiti / Barbados group) and the next-highest Group 2 country (maybe Panama?) get a playoff to decide who moves to the final round.

4. Last year's qualifiers (US, MEX, CR) get free passes to the final round, described at #5 below.

5. The first four get us to 12 teams. From here, hijack the old '02 process at the semifinal round, break the 12 teams into two groups of six, and let the winners of each group advance. The two second place teams play two-leg playoff, with the winner getting the third auto spot and the loser going off to Asia.

[JG]

I prefer keeping the current system for a few reasons:

1. The hex is the most exciting thing in CONCACAF right now. Why change?

2. To choose the "correct" 3.5 teams, we want to maximize the number of games played between the top teams.

3. I don't like the two group system because it's so open to imbalances between the groups (see AFC qualifying) and it'll reduce the number of games between the top teams. If CONCACAF was a little deeper and there were 10-12 realistic contenders, then this might work better.

4. Octagonal is probably too many games...easier to find 10 dates in the international calendar. Maybe it could work if they modify the early-round setup.

[WarrenWallace]

I would rather just keep it with 6 teams. Don't want it splint into groups cause there is always the fluke issue in which a good team doesn't qualify.

[Davids26]

The Hex is fine. Top 3 teams go through and that 4th place team is still alive for a spot in the tournament. If it aint broke don't fix it.

[SJJ]

I would like to know how many matchdates are listed in the 2004-2005 Coordinated Calendar for qualifying. How many dates can we use for our qualies? We have to take into account for two more dates for the Asian playoff round.

Also, I would like a better notion of how many teams are in the Carribbean and Central America. My calculations below just work with the basic numbers, without accounting for the regions.

If you want a six-team final, try this:

Top six teams seeded into round 4. Using the just-published Fifa rankings [which are just as good, or just as bad, as anything else, but I consider the rankings within a confederation as close to true]: (1) Mexico, (2) United States, (3) Costa Rica, (4) Honduras, (5) Trinidad and Tobago, (6) Jamaica

Seed teams 7-12 into round 3: (7) Canada, (8 tie) Cuba, (8 tie) Haiti, (10) Guatemala, (11) El Salvador, (12) Barbados

Play two qualifying rounds to get the other 23 teams down to 6. They face the 7-12 seeds in round 3. Those winners face the 1-6 seeds in round 4. The first four rounds are home-and-home series. Six winners to the hex.

Total matchdates: 18, plus two for the playoff: 20. The top seeds play at most 12.

If you want 8 teams in two groups (similar format to whittle down to 8):

Seed teams 1-8 to round 4; 9-16 to round 3: includes (13) St. Kitts and Nevis, (14) St. Lucia, (15) Panama, (16) Grenada

Other 19 teams play two rounds to get to 8. Those 8 play 9-16; those winners play 1-8; 8 teams to the groups.

The second place teams can play-off against each other, or just give the one with the better record a bid, and have the other play-off with Asia.

Total matchdates: 14 + 2 (second-place teams, optional) + 2 (Asia) = 16 or 18. Again, the seeded teams play at most 12.

(One other side-note: having two groups will eliminate the notion that the WCQ top team will be the unoffical champion of Concacaf. This may [repeat, may] cause the Gold Cup to have more significance.)

[nicodemus]

Originally posted by CityIceMan
I would rather just keep it with 6 teams. Don't want it splint into groups cause there is always the fluke issue in which a good team doesn't qualify.

Yep, see China instead of Iran.

[Captain Canuck]

Originally posted by nicodemus
Yep, see China instead of Iran.

But that will be a problem no matter what happens in Concacaf - it just means the split happens in an earlier round & even worse, a round held with less matches & less room for error, as well as held too far in advance of the World Cup to be indicative of how good the teams are by the time the World Cup is actually held. For example, its possible we could have a semi-final group featuring the US, Honduras & Canada. All three could finish in the top 4 of a Hex, but one won't even get there, while potenially weaker teams would get to the hex instead.

There are more than 6 quality teams in Concacaf nowadays, as evidenced by the fact we got an additional half-spot. As such, the Hex system is out-moded & out-dated. The 4th place team could easily have a losing record in the Hex but then go on to qualify for the World Cup, which would be outrageous. Time to do an Octagonal, or my personal preference, two groups of 5 or 6, as suggested in the original post

[nicodemus]

the more superior teams get "passes" to the later rounds so the earlier splits aren't such a problem for the bigger teams. The "lesser good" teams should be able to survive earlier rounds. The hex is the way to go.

[Captain Canuck]

Originally posted by nicodemus
the more superior teams get "passes" to the later rounds so the earlier splits aren't such a problem for the bigger teams. The "lesser good" teams should be able to survive earlier rounds. The hex is the way to go.

Not a very convincing argument for Guatemalan supporters, based upon what happened in qualifying for 2002.