[Justin O]

Sunday, 11/17

Spain: Osasuna-Valencia 2@2.00 (oddsalive) 7 units

Motivation to come away with all 3 points should be high for Valencia, who have to feel that they have a good chance to go top of the table on goal differential with a win away to Osasuna. Wrapping up first place in their Champions League group early meant they were able to rest key players ahead of this match. Osasuna, currently second from the bottom in Spain, have dropped their last 3 matches, including a home loss to last place Huleva, their 3rd loss in 4 home matches. With 8 points from 4 away matches thus far this year, Valencia should prove too powerful for their hosts.


Turkey: Altay-Besiktas 2@1.62 (canbet) 8 units

If you were among those who took Genclerbirligi over Altay last weekend you got a bit of a scare as Altay held out until late. Several people pointed out Altay’s financial crisis and their resulting dreadful form of late. What, in my opinion, we all failed to emphasize enough was Genclerbirligi’s inconsistency. Altay will not be facing such an opponent this weekend. In Besiktas they get Turkey’s hottest club. Coming off their UEFA Cup win over Alaves, Besiktas will look to take all 3 points which could move them from third to second or even first in the table. The way they’re playing now it seems only a matter of time before they go top of the table.

Holland: Utrecht-Alkmaar 1@1.70 (canbet) 7 units

Utrecht are traditionally a strong home side. They’ve taken 13 points from 5 home matches this year and in winning their last 3 overall have climbed to 5th in the table. Alkmaar, currently 13th, is coming off a 2-0 win home to 14th place Roosendaal. Despite that win, their overall performances of late have been poor. In their 2 most recent away matches they were pummeled by Ajax (6-2) and lowly Zwolle (5-1). Overall they’ve conceded 15 goals in their 5 away matches while Utrecht has conceded only 2 goals in their 5 home matches. A price of 1.70 for a strong home side on the way up vs. a mediocre side falling in the table is price worth taking.

Monday 11/18

Bundesliga 2: St. Pauli-FC Koln 2@2.10 (interwetten) 5 units

FC Koln have reached 2nd place in the table basically by winning at home and drawing away. In 6 home matches they’ve won 5 and tied one while in their 6 away matches they’ve drawn 5 times and won once. All in all not a bad formula for success. In St. Pauli they get a side they should beat anywhere. There’s a lot of internal turmoil on this club and right now they have the look of a side facing relegation 2 years in a row. I don’t see Koln’s inability to get all 3 points away to other sides as enough reason to doubt their ability to take all 3 points away to St. Pauli.

more picks

[Justin O]

A 4 team combo of the above pays 8.66 at bet365. Worth a small stake I think.

[La Brujita]

Justin, do you gamble professionally? I ask because you bet on a variety of leagues. I try to follow one or two leagues closely and then bet on those games or teams from those leagues in Europe. Do you follow all the leagues closely?

[Justin O]

Oh I'm basically a complete fraud - and not a professional. As to how much I follow these leagues, I guess it depends on how you define "follow". Of course to some extent I follow every league I pick. I've spent a lot of time overseas and followed some leagues very closely for a short time (like the Russian and Turkish leagues) while trying to keep up with them best I can via the internet while in this country. I also tend to bet teams with "Yanks Abroad" since I generally follow them more closely. I guess I just look for prices that seem to high based on what I know about the given league, and then look at statistics, recent results, any "fixture congestrion" and try to find out about injuries or other random factors. Gamebookers has a great statistical breakdown of several leagues. Go to "soccer stats" from the main page and notice at the bottom you can enter a home and away side and get a side by side comparisson. UEFA's site also has useful info and you can get useful tips from various betting forums. Interestingly, I know more about MLS than any league I bet but I do better with many, maybe even most, other leagues I pick.

[La Brujita]

I don't think you are a fraud for posting suggestions. I wish this forum were more active and it seems you are one of the most frequent posters.

I think what counts ultimately is results, not how much minutia one may or may not know about a league. Obviously it helps to follow a league closely; but that is not the end all.

One site I love is www.oddschecker.com.

[eric_appleby]

I only bet 3 leagues, MLS, EPL, and NFL.

By the way, I havn't won a wager since week 2 of the NFL season. I'm lowering my number of bets and size of stakes. Hell, I may be down to $1 bets if this keeps up.

I usually like to do parlays, but this last weekend my plan was to pick the one single game I felt the strongest about and just go with that. So I went with Favre and the Pack. HA HA!

Overall, I'm still in the black from when I started about 2 years ago.