MLS Attendance Analysis: Week 3

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by edwardgr, Mar 27, 2011.

  1. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So there we have it two weeks in the books, and probably still to early to draw any conclusions. Through 19 games we have completed 6.2% of the 2011 season. So far the one thing that really does stand out is that all other seasons had at least one sub 10k match by the end of the 19th match. So even though this season is 4th best at this percentage of completion it certainly is holding it own considering it will have far more matches than any previous season.

    In this thread we discuss the:

    (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.)​

    This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets).

    The formula to find the weighted value for each column is:

    Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column

    17410 is the max
    13756 is the min
    3654 is the difference

    To calculate the derived value for 2010
    Subtract 16675 from 17410 to get 735.
    Divide 735 by 3654 then mulitply by 100* to get 20

    *Note that this step is new as some people thought whole numbers would be easier to read.

    MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced. If you believe that the attendance was more or less than reported please use the Perceived Attendance thread to discuss that.
     
  2. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So this past week brought the total to 19 matches played, brining the total to 6.2% of all matches completed for 2011. Of those 19 matches, 13 have topped 15k, and the current standard deviation is 5296.

    The 9 matches this last week were as follows:

    Code:
    Seattle    	36204
    Toronto FC	20086
    Chicago  	12157
    Columbus	10306*
    Philadelphia	18591
    New England	12914
    FC Dallas 	11022
    Real Salt Lake	20507
    Chivas USA	13027
    [B]Total       	154814[/B]
    [COLOR="Red"]Average   	17202[/COLOR]
    
    *From Columbus Dispatch match report.

    There was one attendance milestone Chivas USA reached 1.5 million in attendance in their 94th home match. Which is tied with Columbus for 6th fastest to 1.5 million.

    This upcoming week gives 8 matches with Columbus hosting on a Friday night, this could be the first sub 10 of the season. Two matches take place in Canada on the same day for the first time as both Vancouver and Toronto are home. The champs are home to DC, Portland continues their extended road trip this time at New England. Red Bulls are home, and then two in California, Galaxy and Quakes round out the matches.
     
  3. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And lastly for the numbers. Again still really early but this season is looking good in 4th place all time at this point:

    Current Season:

    Code:
    Current	Average	Median	<10k	>20k	AvgPts	MedPts	<10kPts	>20kPts	AAAQ	AAAQRnk	Date
    1996	31729	27126	10.0%	90.0%	0	0	40	0	40	1	4/20
    1997	18631	14862	20.0%	30.0%	72	84	80	73	310	13	4/5
    1998	16110	14841	8.3%	25.0%	86	84	33	80	283	11	4/4
    1999	16129	16191	16.7%	25.0%	86	75	67	80	308	12	4/3
    2000	13639	12922	25.0%	16.7%	100	97	100	90	387	15	4/1
    2001	17320	16200	0.0%	20.0%	80	75	0	86	240	7	4/14
    2002	23689	18450	0.0%	44.4%	44	60	0	56	160	2	4/3
    2003	17584	19801	22.2%	44.4%	78	50	89	56	273	10	4/19
    2004	19686	20356	22.2%	66.7%	67	46	89	29	230	6	4/17
    2005	13958	12553	25.0%	8.3%	98	100	100	100	398	16	4/15
    2006	20646	19860	0.0%	50.0%	61	50	0	49	160	3	4/8
    2007	17132	16462	0.0%	16.7%	81	73	0	90	244	8	4/15
    2008	16753	17251	7.7%	30.8%	83	68	31	72	254	9	4/6
    2009	15632	15291	14.3%	14.3%	89	81	57	93	320	14	3/29
    2010	18841	18653	6.7%	40.0%	71	58	27	61	217	5	4/10
    2011	19225	18591	0.0%	42.1%	69	59	0	59	186	4	3/26
    
    Historic End of Season:

    Code:
    EOS	Average	Median	<10k	>20k	AvgPts	MedPts	<10kPts	>20kPts	AAAQ	AAAQRnk	Date
    1996	17410	15093	21.9%	26.3%	0	7	54	20	81	4	9/22
    1997	14606	12733	25.0%	16.3%	77	75	65	78	295	12	9/28
    1998	14312	11871	26.6%	16.1%	85	100	71	79	335	14	9/27
    1999	14282	12973	32.3%	15.1%	86	68	92	85	331	13	10/10
    2000	13756	12690	34.4%	12.5%	100	76	100	100	376	15	9/9
    2001	14961	13431	26.6%	17.7%	67	55	71	70	263	10	9/9
    2002	15821	14108	17.1%	18.6%	43	36	36	65	179	6	9/22
    2003	14900	13719	23.3%	18.0%	69	47	59	68	242	9	10/26
    2004	15549	13223	24.7%	25.3%	51	61	64	26	202	8	10/17
    2005	15112	12619	27.1%	17.7%	63	79	73	70	284	11	10/16
    2006	15426	14113	19.3%	18.2%	54	36	44	67	201	7	10/15
    2007	16767	15353	8.2%	29.7%	18	0	3	0	20	1	10/21
    2008	16460	15188	11.0%	24.8%	26	5	13	28	72	3	10/26
    2009	16037	14686	14.7%	20.9%	38	19	27	51	135	5	10/25
    2010	16675	15332	7.5%	22.5%	20	1	0	42	63	2	10/16
    
     
  4. bunge

    bunge BigSoccer Supporter

    Oct 24, 2000
    Thanks as always.
     
  5. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

    Apr 23, 2007
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    I'm expecting that the USA-Argentina game will negatively impact Red Bull attendance. 80K people just dropped good money to go to a soccer game in the freezing cold in the exact same area.

    Also it's Houston. The Houston game was the lowest number posted at RBA last year, and that was in June... at 11,462.

    Also after a brief spell of spring-like weather before the last home game, we seem to have been plunged right back into winter. I think precipitation and cold are expected for Saturday.

    Those who think RBA should be an automatic sellout a 25K should prepare for disappointment.
     
  6. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Should we be worried about that Columbus number?
     
  7. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France

    No, it's much too early in the year to worry about any of the numbers.

    It may well be a down year for Columbus but that doesn't mean they wouldn't rebound nicely with a quality team. Just normal ebb and flow. Also, keep in mind in 2009 Columbus had one game in the 8000s and one in the 7000s but still averaged over 14000.
     
  8. skippybentley

    skippybentley Member

    Aug 9, 2009
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Low attendance in Columbus was due to the cold weather they are having. Also, all of the stars on Red Bulls were in international competition or injured. Like all forms of entertainment, soccer sells better with recognizable stars.
     
  9. jayd8888

    jayd8888 Member+

    Aug 22, 2006
    Denver CO
    I wish I could understand the situation when the mlextrassoccer website doesn't list an attendance but that home city's fish wrap does. It's not the first time; luckily it was factored in with the stats page. Keep up the good work as always.
     
  10. mbar

    mbar Member+

    Apr 30, 1999
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You have to think that with Man United playing at Red Bull Arena (relatively small capacity) against the MLS All Stars that Red Bull should see a boost in attendance. With only 25,000 tickets. they will probably be able to sell loads of 3 game or 4 game packs when they start off with that being the only way to buy Man U tickets.

    Perhaps too early to say, but I think it's possible that Red Bulls will have as strong or stronger attendance this year then last.
     
  11. Heist

    Heist Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You mean a boost in ticket sales. There is often a solid group of no-shows at RBA, especially in the expensive seats (or so it looks on TV).
     
  12. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

    Apr 23, 2007
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    A boost in paid attendance. And to be clear, that is paid attendance at our 250 million dollar soccer stadium.
     
  13. Heist

    Heist Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No, I meant ticket sales for MLS games (you can add the word paid if you like). Hopefully it will also boost actual attendance, but those kind of packages to see one team may boost ticket sales for the other games but won't necessarily boost attendance as much as they boost the sales.
     
  14. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm surprised the ASG won't be at the Meadowlands.
     
  15. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

    Apr 23, 2007
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    But if that's the direction you're going, you're in the wrong thread. It's easy to see how the ASG will help boost paid, and therefore announced, attendance for some Red Bulls game. Whether or not you want to believe those people will show, or will have shown, is beside the point in this thread.
     
  16. Heist

    Heist Member+

    Jun 15, 2001
    Virginia
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I know about the difference between the threads. It will definitely boost paid and announced attendance, the one we care about in the thread. Its not clear if it will get more people to MLS games. The original poster said it would necessarily boost MLS attendance. The all star game will surely sell out AND at probably really high prices given the ticket scarcity. It will necessarily boost MLS announced attendance if they sell ticket packages. That's the exact distinction I'm trying to make.
     
  17. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Since we are talking Red Bulls today, I'm wondering if there has been any improvements around the stadium area? Is the work on the Path station finished up? Anything to do/spend $$ on on the walk from the station to the stadium?
     
  18. tk421

    tk421 Member

    Aug 11, 2007
    New York, NY
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1673910

    Has a good update on progress/lack of progress
     
  19. THOMA GOL

    THOMA GOL BigSoccer Supporter

    Jul 16, 1999
    Frontier
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Early forecast so far for Friday:
    [​IMG]
    High 42 Low 39

    It is what it is.
     
  20. crookeddy

    crookeddy Member+

    Apr 27, 2004
    Should have built a roof :p
     
  21. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I trimmed a bunch of banter that was way off topic.
     
  22. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No one with a home opener this week.
     
  23. FC Matt 90

    FC Matt 90 New Member

    Aug 1, 2006
    Philadelphia
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Only two left:

    Portland v. Chicago, 4/14
    KC v. Chicago, 6/9

    Both on ESPN2, woot!
     
  24. Bradman

    Bradman Member

    Sep 25, 2009
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    What is the biggest factor that makes the NFL HUGE, IMO? 16 games Sunday games (with a few exceptions).

    If they played 162 or 84, no one would care all that much about the NFL.

    A lesson MLS could learn along with weather.

    Don't expand your season
    Don't waste weekends on Superliga
    Start away from March Madness.

    April - Sept 24 games and see a signifcant interest and attendance boost.
     
  25. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    I'm not certain how a 24 game regular season would lead to a "signifcant interest and attendance boost."

    Average "attendance boost" or total "attendance boost"?

    MLS's business (kinda like the NFL's business) expansion is based in part on playing more games (not fewer) and selling more total tickets.
     

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