[olafgb]

Sunday will be the elections for the German Bundestag. Germany has a very complicated two-way voting system – first vote for a direct candidate, second vote for the parties, which need five percent to enter. Second vote is the important one, but three direct votes also get a party to the Bundestag.

Main parties:
SPD – Social-democratic Party of Germany, governing party of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder; aim: being re-elected, becoming best party. Political tendency: social democrats.
CDU/CSU – Christian Democratic (CSU in Bavaria: Social) Union, main opposition of Chancellor candidate Edmund Stoiber; aim: being elected, becoming best party. Political tendency: conservatives.
FDP – Free Democratic Party, Chancellor candidate without chance Guido Westerwelle; aim: officially 18%, realistically 10% and get a position in which they replace The Greens as coalition partner of the governing party. Political tendency: liberals.
DIE GRÜNEN - The Greens, coalition partner of SPD, no chancellor candidate, main figure is Secretary of State Joschka Fischer; aims: staying coalition partner of SPD, getting 8%. Political tendency: alternatives (ecology, no wars, no power plants…)
PDS – Party of Democratic Socialism, former GDR-governing SED; entering the Bundestag (it’s almost merely an eastern party, also chance to enter via three direct (first) votes). Political tendency: (at least partially) post communists.
All other parties are without chances to enter the Bundestag.

Situation:
After 16 years under Chancellor Kohl (CDU) a change was wanted and needed. Mainly because Kohl again wanted to be re-elected, SPD won and Schröder became chancellor in 1998. Realistically seen he failed in almost all of his aims, mainly to have 3.5 M unemployed people maximum (today I think it’s about 4.1 M; also before 9/11 and its world wide effects he failed with this aim). Six weeks ago the signs were clear: CDU and FDP would make the race. Then the flood catastrophe happened, and for some odd reason I’ll never understand, catastrophes are giving votes for the governing party. When also TV battles according to American format were held between Schröder and Stoiber, the situation finally shifted. Stoiber, currently Minister President of Bavaria, is seen as the more competent of the two, but he’s having problems with articulating properly and rather seems to be dry and stiff – many dislike him because of that. Though Stoiber did better than expected, Schröder now seems to be ahead. Clear is: if we could vote for the person of the chancellor, it would be Schröder; if we had to vote for the content of the politics, it would be Stoiber.

US relation:
Bush hates Schröder, that’s an open secret. Recently the government of Schröder annoyed the foreign public by being the only Europeans even excluding a war against Iraq if the UN allowed it. That’s nothing but election tactics as The Greens are a peace party and every time Germany is involved in a war (which ironically so far only happened when this ‘peace party’ was governing), the coalition shakes – this topic before an election and The Greens wouldn’t enter the Bundestag (though I’m very certain that in two months Germany will join the EU position anyway). Yesterday SPD’s Attorney General Herta Däubler-Gmelin cared for a fresh scandal by being quoted “Bush’s politics to use a war to get the eyes of the public away from inner problems is very famous since Hitler”. She claims to never have said this sentence, but people of this meeting confessed this journalist, though Däubler-Gmelin later in this meeting announced to not want to compare Bush with Hitler. Reactions were sharp criticism of Ari Fleisher and a threat to remove the US-army from Germany if Schröder is re-elected. Opposition claims to fire Däubler-Gmelin, which would be the ninth minister/secretary in fifteen of such jobs to not survive the four years election term. Bush obviously prefers a conservative solution with Stoiber.

Outlook:
The race is completely open. In last week’s last allowed prognostications SPD was the better party for the first time (40%), CDU followed with 39, FDP 8, Greens 7, PDS 4. A lot seems to depend on PDS; if they enter – via 5% or three direct first vote candidates – no traditional coalition could come to exist. Situation in this case: CDU and FDP would rather drink poison than collide with PDS, also Chancellor Schröder excluded governing with the ex-communists (though caution needed, SPD governs two or three states with PDS). The poison drinking is also preferred by CDU and FDP before governing with The Greens. So, SPD/Greeens, SPD/FDP, CDU/FDP are realistically the only options – problem: if PDS enters, probably none of these three versions can be realised; consequence would most likely be a big coalition of CDU/SPD, though this is something nobody really wants. Other option would be that Schröder re-thinks his PDS position and at least is tolerated by them, but this would cause riots in the west where PDS isn’t nearly accepted. In a big coalition Stoiber announced to not become chancellor, Schröder certainly would love to stay in office. But this certainly would depend on the most successful party, CDU would demand to have the chancellor position if they get most votes; in this case we could see somebody third as chancellor who we don’t think of yet (maybe first female chancellor: Angela Merkel, or first wheelchair person as chancellor: Wolfgang Schäuble).

[Colin Grabow]

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/19/opinion/19SAFI.html

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editor...l?id=110002291

Personally I don't care who wins. I think that Stoiber is a populist who isn't interested in the major changes that Germany needs. But I also think that Schroeder is a weasel for his decision to boost his popularity by running against the US. I might be able to respect that position if I thought it was genuine, but I have little reason to think it is anything more than saying whatever is necessary to get elected.

[cossack]

Originally posted by Colin Grabow
[B
I also think that Schroeder is a weasel for his decision to boost his popularity by running against the US. I might be able to respect that position if I thought it was genuine, but I have little reason to think it is anything more than saying whatever is necessary to get elected. [/B]

Why? A majority of Germans have faulty opinions ?

[Colin Grabow]

Originally posted by cossack


Why? A majority of Germans have faulty opinions ?

Re-read what I said. I am not criticizing the German people, they can think whatever they want. I am criticizing Schroeder for his about face after fully supporting the US and even sending troops to Afghanistan. It doesn't seem as though he genuinely believes what he is saying, he is just saying whatever is necessary to get elected.

[Alex_K]

Originally posted by olafgb
Sunday will be the elections for the German Bundestag.

I already voted.
(The world should know this ).

[CrewDust]

I find it ammusing that the number one issue in this election is Dubya.

[olafgb]

Originally posted by Alex_K


I already voted.
(The world should know this ).

Hopefully the right ones and not the party of your club president . I also voted btw.

[The Hunter]

Its nice to know that we Americans are not the only people who have elections which turn downright silly and embarassing. This one reminds me of the Clinton-Dole race in 1996. The media darling versus the boring older guy.

The debates were presented in a pretty silly format and touted as a "TV-Duell", not a debate. It gave the impression that the media was not taking the concept seriously. It looked like a series of early 1980s US debates with each candidate spouting the same sound bites and not getting into the specifics. While the US 2000 election ended up being a mess, the debates were a different matter. A few featured specific surprise questions from average Americans which forced the candidates to articulate how their policy proposals would affect that person's situation. It forced the candidates to be ready to talk the details of their plans and let the people decide based on this additonal information. I was hoping to see this in the German "duels" but it was not present.

I find it a shame that the SPD found it necessary to make Iraq and Bush his main issues in the last weeks of the campaign. Comments from Schroeder, Stiegler, and now the justice minister are way over the top. Schroeder has successfully managed to move the issue of the German economy off the front page. I don't think many in the US fault Germany's position but they do take issue with how it is being communcated and utilized.

While this shrewd political move will probably win his coalition the election, relations with the US not to mention the UK and France) have been severely damaged. I would not be surprised if it causes this group to withdraw its support from Germany becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Chirac already refused Schroeder's request for help on the Mobilcom issue due to the way his criticism of France's position or Iraq.

Perhaps the most ironic event this week was that what the justice minister accused Bush of doing (trying to draw attention away from a lagging economy), is exactly what the Red-Green coalition has done with the Iraq issue. With unemployment hovering around 10% and venture capital leaving the country at an increasing rate, its a shame this issue has been pushed into the background.

I wish Germany well but it looks like the economy may get even worse for a few years before things turn up again. The sheer volume of young German entrepeneurs and money flowing into eastern Europe is amazing. While I've heard some call it German economic imperialism, I could not disagree more. It is simply people making rational decisions to invest where there are fewer barriers to entry and lower operating costs. Too bad neither of the major parties is offering up a plan to make the necessary changes to bring Germany back to the fore economically.

Oh well, the great thing about democracy is that while the people do not always get the best government, they do get the government they deserve.

[olafgb]

Excellent analysis.

The Mobilcom support is a bad election joke as well (400 K government help for a bankrupt phone company to save some thousand jobs). Opposition - with good right - asks where they are when the thousands of smaller companies go bankruptcy. Instead of creating better market structures for the economy, the government prefers to occasionsally help out bigger firms as they get good media focus with it. The 400 K are nothing but election campaign, as a) it is very probable that EU will disallow it because it is illegal subvention, b) if EU allows it, the problems for Mobilcom are still the same and they most likely will end like Holzmann, where the government also did public help and the firm went bankruptcy two years later, and c) it is an election campaign paid by the public household and not by the party, which is the real shame about it.

However, the opposition isn't really able to constantly point out the numerous mistakes of the present government. And nobody really knows what to expect of Stoiber - basically he's doing an extraordinary job as Minister President of Bavaria, which is one of four states (total are 16) in Germany making profit with the budget. For this nationwide election he decided to soften his positions from usually middle-right politics to the middle and that way he became a Schröder-copy with little differences. Only at the end of the election campaign when they realised that SPD is doing better and better in the prognostications, they started to get out some of their basical positions. Maybe too late...

Yesterday I saw final prognostications of the Allenbach Institute saying:
SPD 37.5
CDU 37
FDP 9
GRÜNE 7.5
PDS 4
All others together 5
If PDS doesn't get three direct candidates, then this would be a very, very small victory for the opposition.

[BrianJames]

Originally posted by The Hunter
While this shrewd political move will probably win his coalition the election, relations with the US not to mention the UK and France) have been severely damaged.

With their stance on GW and the Iraq issue, I can see the problems it will create with US relations. What has been done/said that will stress their relations with the British and French?