MLS 2010 revenue sharing projection

Disclaimer: This is an estimate and I do not claim that this is accurate. I work with all the information available to me to make an informed projection.


Seattle -------- 36,145.75------36,000 paid attn. x 30% x 15 games x $32 = $5,184,000
Toronto FC-----20,537.40 -----20,500 paid attn. x 30% x 15 games x $32 = $2,952,000
Los Angeles ---19,635.17------19,000 paid attn. x 30% x 15 games x $32 = $2,736,000
Philadelphia--- 29,954.00------20,000 paid attn. x 30% x 15 games x 27 = $2,430,000
New York -----16,282.14------15,500 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $27 = $1,883,250
D.C. United---14,734.14------13,500 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $29 = $1,761,750
Houston -------16,685.43------16,000 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $24 = $1,728,000
Salt Lake------15,816.50------15,000 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $22 = $1,485,000

Chicago-------14,266.50------13,200 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $25 = $1,485,000
Columbus ----14,244.20------13,200 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $22 = $1,306,800
Chivas USA---14,500.60------13,000 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $22 = $1,287,000
Colorado -----12,787.00------11,700 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $22 = $1,158,300
NE ------------10,319.00------8,500 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $25 = $956,200
Kansas City---9,895.67-------9,000 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $22 = $891,000
FC Dallas------10,447.50------8,500 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $22 = $841,500
San Jose ------9,383.83-------8,500 paid attn x 30% x 15 games x $22 = $841,500

And this is from a parity-obsessed league. The disparity of the revenue sharing figure would widen even further if MLS has a more flexible salary structure.


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Information that help me make my projection:



I guesstimate that 2010 Prices range from $22 to $32. This 2007 MLS prices certainly help. Thanks to triplet1 for this info:

There is a real spread in average general admission ticket prices, which in turn makes some of the disparity in what the teams pay to MLS even greater than your estimates. Here are the numbers from 2007, as reported by the Houston Chronicle and quoted in the HVS Portland Study (page 14):

1. Los Angeles Galaxy ($32.50)
2. Toronto FC ($30.29)
3. D.C. United ($29.00)
4. Chicago Fire ($24.00)
4. New England Revolution ($24.00)

League Average $22.47

6. New York Red Bulls ($21.83)
7. Houston Dynamo ($20.50)
8. Chivas USA ($19.40)
9. FC Dallas ($18.50)
9. Columbus Crew ($18.50)
11. Real Salt Lake ($18.25)
12. Colorado Rapids ($17.90)
13. Kansas City Wizards ($17.50)

Source: Houston Chronicle

I also guesstimate the paid attendance for each teams. New York revenue sharing figure could change if NY get a well-known DP. This article certainly help:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/soccer/20060927-9999-lz1s27goal.html

As you can see, my paid attendance projection is very liberal. Should I be more conservative with the paid attendance? Maybe 8,500 paid attendance for Dallas is way too liberal. haha


MLS single entity system that requires each team to send MLS 30% of their gate receipts. MLS also receive all the national television revenue and national sponsorship revenue. With that MLS pays for $2.55 mil of each team salary budget and pays for league operation.

Code:

                           Pre-Contraction               [b]Post-Contraction[/b]
Revenues          Investor/Operator       MLS      [b]Investor/Operator     MLS[/b]

Gate Receipts            50%               50%               [b]70%         30%[/b]
Concessions             100%                0%              100%          0%
Parking                 100%                0%              100%          0%
Local Sponsorships      (1)                (1)              100%          0%
National Sponsorships    0%                100%               0%        100%
Other Stadium Revenue  100%                 0%              100%          0%
National Media           0%                100%               0%        100%
Local TV & Radio       100%                 0%              100%          0%


Expenses

Player Salaries          0%               100%               [b] 0%        100%[/b]
Front Office Expenses  100%                 0%              100%          0%
Team Travel              0%               100%              100%          0%
Broadcast Expenses       0%               100%              100%          0%
Rent                    50%                50%              100%          0%
Game Day Expenses       50%                50%              100%          0%

One thing is clear. The gap between the well-run teams and the not so well run teams is widening especially with Vancouver, Portland, Montreal coming into the league.

MLS 2.0 teams: Toronto, Seattle, Philadelphia, Vancouver, Portland, Montreal. MLS biggest challenge is to nurture these teams so they will stay as MLS 2.0 instead of reverting back to MLS 1.0.

 

If you can't discredit the message, discredit the messenger