Advancement Scenarios I'll go through each team. Help me out if I'm missing something. Argentina 1st place with - a win a draw a loss by 2 goals or less and a Nigeria win or draw a loss by 1 goal and a South Korea win of 3 or less a loss by 2 goals and a South Korea win of 2 or less a loss by 1 goal and a South Korea win of 4 with Argentina scoring, at minimum, 2 less goals than South Korea in the final match a loss by 2 goals and a South Korea win of 3 with Argentina scoring, at minimum, 2 less goals than South Korea in the final match 2nd place with - a loss by 3 goals or more to Greece and a Nigeria win or draw a loss by 2 goals and a South Korea win by 4 or more a loss by 2 goals and a South Korea win by 3 with South Korea scoring at least 3 more goals than Argentina in the final match a loss by 1 goal and a South Korea win by 5 or more a loss by 1 goal and a South Korea win by 4 with South Korea scoring at least 3 more goals than Argentina in the final match 3rd place with - a loss by 3 goals to Greece and a South Korea win by 3 goals or more a loss by 3 goals to Greece and a South Korea win by 2 goals in which South Korea scores at least 3 more goals than Argentina in the final match And we'll just assume Greece does not win by 4 goals.
Re: Advancement Scenarios Nigeria 2nd place with - A win and a Greek loss 3rd place with - A win and a Greek win A win and a Greek draw 4th place with - A draw A loss So much easier than Argentina.
Re: Advancement Scenarios Greece 1st place - A win by 3 goals or more with South Korea losing, drawing, or winning by less than goals. A win by 3 goals or more with South Korea winning by that same amount of goals but Greece scoring 2 or more goals than South Korea in the final match. 2nd place - A win by 3 goals or more with South Korea winning by 1 more goal than Greece did. A win by 3 goals or more with South Korea winning by that same amount of goals but Greece scoring no more than 1 more goal than South Korea in the final match. A win by 2 goals and a South Korea win by two goals with Greece scoring two or more goals than South Korea in the final match. A win by 2 goals and a South Korea win by 1 goal. A win by 2 goals and a South Korea draw or loss. A win by 1 goal and a South Korea draw or loss. A win by 1 goal and a South Korea win by 1 goal with Greece scoring two more goals than South Korea in the final match. A draw and a South Korea loss. A draw and a South Korea draw with Greece scoring two or more goals than South Korea in the final match. Greece does not advance in any other scenario.
Well, listening to the ESPN announces butcher it (Nigeria doesn't need a big win, just any win and any Greece loss), I thought I'd post one. For the record, here are the tie-breakers: 1. Goal Difference in ALL group matches 2. Goals Scored in ALL group matches If two or more teams still tied, then: 1. Points gained in group games between the tied teams 2. Goal difference in group games between tied teams 3. Goals scored in group games between the tied teams 4. Drawing of lots. http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/competition/56/42/69/fifawcsouthafrica2010inhalt_e.pdf Here's where we sit: Team - PTS - GD - GS Arg: 6 PTS, +4, 5 Kor: 3 PTS, -1, 3 Gre: 3 PTS, -1, 2 Nig: 0 PTS, -2, 1 Advancement Scenarios A. Argentina: In with: 1. Anything but a 3+ goal LOSS to Greece AND South Korea WIN v. Nigeria by 3 or more OR a South Korea WIN by 2 in which they score 3 more goals than Argentina in the last game. Wins Group: 1. Anything but a 3+ goal LOSS to Greece OR a LOSS to Greece + a South Korea WIN over Nigeria with margins adding up to 6 or more goals (1 & 5, 2 & 4, 3 & 3) OR 2. A LOSS to Greece AND South Korea WIN in which they score 3 more goals than Argentina in the last game and the margins add up to 5 or more. B. South Korea In with: 1. A WIN vs. Nigeria + Greece LOSS/DRAW with Argentina. 2. A DRAW vs. Argentina + Greece LOSS/DRAW vs. Argentina 3. A WIN vs. Nigeria + Greece WIN by equal or lesser margin vs. Argentina Out with: 1. LOSS to Nigeria 2. WIN vs. Nigeria AND Greek WIN vs. Argentina by larger margin (providing the margins don't add up to 6 or Greek margin = 3 and South Korea margin is 2 AND South Korea scores 3 more goals than Argentina). Wins Group: 1. WIN + Argentina LOSS with combined margins of 6 or more goals (1 & 5, 2 & 4, 3 & 3) in which Greece doesn't win by more goals than Korea OR 2. Argentina LOSS AND a South Korea WIN in which they score 3 more goals than Argentina in the last game AND the margins add up to 5 or more. C. Greece In with: 1. WIN vs Argentina AND South Korea DRAW/LOSS to Nigeria 2. DRAW vs. Argentina AND South Korea LOSS to Nigeria 3. WIN vs. Argentina AND South Korea WIN vs. Nigeria by a lesser margin Out with: 1. LOSS to Argentina 2. DRAW with Argentina + South Korea WIN/DRAW vs. Nigeria 3. WIN vs. Argentina + South Korea WIN vs. Nigeria by and equal or greater margin Wins Group: 1. WIN against Argentina by 3+ goals AND Nigeria WIN/DRAW vs. South Korea 2. WIN vs. Argentina by 3+ goals and South Korea WIN by a lesser margin. D. Nigeria In with: 1. WIN vs. South Korea AND Argentina WIN over Greece Out With 1. DRAW/LOSS vs. South Korea 2. Greece WIN/DRAW vs. Argentina Wins Group: CANNOT WIN GROUP ========================================================== I think that is correct, but any corrections are welcome. Anyway, interesting scenarios. Argentina should rest anyone with a card (Mascherano, etc) if he has a brain, as they are almost guaranteed to win the group. Still, this could allow Greece to maybe get a draw, especially is Samuel's injury keeps him out too. Still, South Korea has to fancy their chances if they get a result, and Nigeria must fancy theirs if they can win. The South Korea/Nigeria game is the one to watch for me. Isn't it time for Martins for Nigeria? They need someone who can score from nothing, he's the guy.
Re: Advancement Scenarios I did the same thing, with all the teams at once. We used a little different language and set up, but I humbly ask the mods to merge them.
your scenario misses some: Argentina qualify with: win/tie/loss by 2 or less or loss by 3 or more and ( combined margin of both games being 4 or less (i.e. 3-0 loss and SK 1-0 win) or combined margin of both games being 5 but SK having at most 2 more goals than Argentina (i.e. 3-0 loss and SK 2-0 win) ) ) Argentina win group with: win or tie or loss/tie by SK or ( loss by 2 or less and korea win/Argentina loss combined margin of 4 or less (i.e. 2-0 and 2-0) ) or ( loss by 2 or less and korea win/Argentina loss combined margin of 5 and korea scores at most 2 more goals than argentina (i.e. 3-1 and 3-0) ) Korea are in with: win by 3 or more or win plus greek draw/loss or win by 2 and greece win by 1 or win by 2 and greece win by 2 and greece score at most 1 more goal than sk or win by 2 and greece win by 3 and sk score 3 more goals than argentina or win by 2 and greece win by 4 or more or win by 1 and greece win by 1 and greece score at most 1 more goal than sk or win by 1 and greece win by 4 and sk score 3 more goals than argentina or win by 1 and greece win by 5 or more or draw plus greek loss or draw plus greek draw plus greece scoring at most 1 more goal than korea korea top group with: win by 5 or more and greece win by 1 or win by 4 and greece win by 1 and score at least 3 more goals than argentina or win by 4 or more and greece win by 2 or win by 3 and greece win by 2 and score at least 3 more goals than argentina or win by 3 or more and greece win by 3 or more and have larger margin of victory than greece win by 3 or more and greece win by 3 or more and have same margin of victory and greece scores at most 1 more goal than sk. greece are in with: win by 3 or more or win plus sk draw/loss or win by 2 and sk win by 1 or win by 2 and sk win by 2 and greece score at least 2 more goals than sk or draw plus sk loss or draw plus sk draw plus greece scoring at least 2 more goals than korea greece top group with: win by 3 or more and sk draw/loss win by 3 or more and sk win by 3 or more and have larger margin of victory than sk win by 3 or more and sk win by 3 or more and have same margin of victory as sk and score at least 2 more goals than sk. nigeria is in with: win and greece loss.
Considering that would mean Greece got a result against Argentina that owned the two other teams why would it be an injustice?
At a string-thin chance. With Kaita out, SK will gain more opportunity to play well against Nigeria. Or if Greece actually wins over Argentina [far more unlikely than surviving a lightning strike], the Nigerian fans will carry their coffins. But SK still would have to watch their offensive and defense carefully. After being defeated by 4-1 against Argentinians, Jung Seongryong seems to be unproven so far. PCY still frightens me thanks to the way he played against Argies.
Re: Advancement Scenarios Might not be the best scenario for football as a whole, but like PPN says, they deserve some credit if they take points off the team that's been one of the most impressive of the tournament so far.